Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Soaring Eagle]

Key:
Light=less than 6% victory margin
Medium=6% or more victory margin
Dark=11% or more victory margin

Notes:
Vermont is colored dark red, but it should be dark green. There was no option for independents.

The Democrats will win in Virginia if and only if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, Allen wins in a landslide.

Arizona and Tennesse are both tossups, I just colored them with the color of the party more likely to win.

Rhode Island is dark blue, but if Chafee loses the Republican primary, it becomes dark red.

Outcome:
Dems win 7 seats.

110th Congress:
51 Dem.
48 Rep.
1 Ind.

[Soaring Eagle]

The Democrats will win in Virginia if and only if Mark Warner runs. Otherwise, Allen wins in a landslide.

Warner has officially ruled out a Senate run, so Allen will win (unless he gets "outted" - but that's a different story.

Arizona and Tennesse are both tossups, I just colored them with the color of the party more likely to win.

I don't really think Arizona is a tossup.  True, Kyl isn't the most popular guy in the world but he's still popular enough to get re-elected, polling over 50%, especially with the Democrats running the next best thing to a sacrifical lamb.

I also don't think Democrats have a shot at Nevada, although once again if those outting rumors turn out to be true and it's Ensign, then...

In that case, the Republicans win Virginia too.

I think the Dems will try hard to oust Kyl. I think it will be close, but like I said, I think the Republicans are more likely to win.

In my opinion, things are looking grim for the GOP in Nevada. If Jack Carter is running, he will likely have his dad and Harry Reid campaigning for him. Jack Carter has more name recoginition than John Ensign, and if I were an average voter, I'd probably keep that in mind.

[Soaring Eagle]

Why is Washington colored gray? Cantwell is running for re-election.

My bad, I forgot all about Cantwell. Washington is red.

[Soaring Eagle]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

[Soaring Eagle]

Lott won't be reelected.

What makes you think that?

Seriously though, is there something you know that the rest of us don't? I mean, you're from Mississippi and probably know a lot more about the Senate race there than I do.

Mike Moore could knock him off.  I wouldn't bet on it, or think he even would have a 20% of doing it, but it's not outside the realm of possibilty.

I'm confused.  You think there's a 20 percent chance yet you say it will happen?

No.

He says there is a 10% chance of it happening, yet he says it will happen.

Realistically, 10% chance or less.  But I'm just going out on a limb and making a bold prediction.

Kudos to you for being so positive. If what you say is true, then I would agree that the chance is very remote, but could happen.

[Soaring Eagle]

March 2006:
Based mostly on my gut feeling.

Rhode Island:  Chafee takes an easier than expected win vs. Whitehouse,  55%-43%.

Maryland:  Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 54%-45%.

Pennsylvania:  While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 53%-46%.

Montana:  Morrison burns Burns, 52%-46%.

Minnesota:  Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.

Missouri:  McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.

New Jersey:  Menendez wins by just a hair versus Kean, 50.6%-49.1%.

Nevada:  Election night surprise!!  Goodman 50.2%, Ensign 49.6%.

Other interesting races:

Tennessee:  Bryant 58%, Ford 41%.

Ohio:  DeWine 57%, Brown 42%.

Florida: Nelson 57%, Harris 39%.

Washington:  Cantwell 58%, McGavick 40%.

Nebraska:  Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.

Virginia:  Allen 59%, Webb 41%.

Michigan:  Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.



(R)51
(D)48
(I)1

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

[Soaring Eagle]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

[Soaring Eagle]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

To be fair Brown hurt his chances of being elected on his own, he combines a very liberal voting record with a prickly persona…

A liberal could be elected in Ohio if his votes seemed coherent and he was both articulate and engaging (a-la Feingold or even Harkin) but Brown is neither articulate nor engaging and his voting record is little more than a shopping list for various liberal pressure groups and trades unions.

On top of all this DeWine was never in desperate trouble, his base might not have been happy with him but they will troop out for Blackwell in all likelihood come election day and would never countenance backing a candidate like Brown.

A maverick like Hakcett who seemed independent and coherent had a long shot, though he would probably have lost while Rep.Tim Ryan would probably have had a better chance but would still have been in a very tight race.

Brown’s votes outside of Cleveland will come thanks to Strickland being on the ballot and general dissatisfaction with the Bush and the GOP nationally and it will not be enough. DeWine will win Republican handily, ditto independents and will potentially take a significant share of Democratic voters – in the end I’d expect him to win by anything from 6-12 points over Brown.             

Interesting assessment. I guess it just depends on what your definition of "crushed" is.

[Soaring Eagle]

My official October prediction. Victory percentages might be a teensy bit off. Pretend that Vermont is green.

DEM + 7