This is just my feeling of where the Senate is at present. It's not as conservative as my earlier prediction and holds a tad more to polls and extrenal circumstances with a slight emphasis on trend.
If I think one race might be moving one way or another, I'll post it. Expect another commentary from me in a month or two:
Safe or Likely is roughly the same, it's just with safe I don't think there is any potential for anything to happen; likely means that something could happen, but probably won't.
Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Likely Democratic
Connecticut (guarding against Lieberman)
Florida (could move to safe before long, knowing Harris)
Michigan (I agree with Nick here actually, there is a good potential for movement on this one, most likely one to move to Lean or better. If I see another poll with Ras. and SV, will move to lean)
Nebraska
Vermont (I)* (As close to a safe open seat we have, it'll probably go there over time)
Lean Democratic
Maryland*
Minnesota*
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington (things are stable here, this is mainly to guard against an incumbent who consistently polls under 50%, this could move to likely)
Toss Up
Missouri (R)
Montana (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Lean Republican
Ohio (R) (if I see another poll backing up Rasmussen's stats, I will change this to toss-up)
Rhode Island (lack of polls makes me stay conservative on this prediction, also that I think Chafee will win primary)
Tennessee* (I need to see who the nominee is here.)
Likely Republican
Arizona
Nevada
Virginia (most likely of the three Rep. Likelies to become closer)
Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Me, I'd move Hawaii one down on account of potentially divisive primary (though maybe you've looked at Republican challengers and noticed they aren't worth sh!t - I haven't) ... Florida one up ... New Jersey one up - basically that'll go Democrat by not too small a margin unless Menendez comes out personally looking bad out of some future scandal, which seeing as he's a North Jersey Democrat is definitely possible ... Nevada one down.
