Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[AuH2O]

New Jersey is the Republicans' best chance for a pickup, and even that doesn't look very likely. Minnesota is swinging back to the Democrats, and they already have one Bushbot Republican in Norm Coleman. I highly doubt they'll elect another.

My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Wow. You are NOT going to be happy Election Night 2006, that's pretty much for sure.

Actually, I think you make a good point here-- by all historical precedent, Democrats should gain a few seats or so. Problem: it's not going to happen. Generic party polls are swinging back to even, with Dems holding an insignificant edge mostly because they aren't in power.

A lot of Democrats are acting like they still have the Big Mo, which they don't. There's a lot of time, of course, but at this point there is no way to project the situation as of November 2006.

My personal guess right now is that the GOP will take 2 Dem seats (probably NJ and MN) while Democrats knock off 2 Republicans. There could be less turnover than that... we'll see.

[AuH2O]

Me, bold indicates change in party (if tossup, I still project):
+= open seat

Safe Democratic
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (Socialist)
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic
Connecticut-- this could change to lean D if a rich, moderate GOP business-type replaces Schlesinger.

Nebraska

Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic
+Maryland-- I still don't think Mfume can win the primary. If he does, Leans GOP.

Michigan-- Bouchard has definite upside. I think DeVos wins narrowly as does Stabenow.

Washington-- by all rights, Cantwell should probably be considered a better Senator than Murray. But this is politics, and the GOP got lucky with a particularly strong candidate. Leans Dem by virtue of political environment.

Toss Up
+Minnesota-- DFL: how the mighty have fallen.

+New Jersey-- Lots of undecideds. Kean is running a smart campaign and this will go down to the wire.

Rhode Island-- going to be close.

Lean Republican
Missouri-- Polls are close, but. But Talent defeated an incumbent Dem in 2002. But he has lots of money. But Missouri is a GOP-leaning state. It'll be close, but Talent will win. 

Montana-- Rasmussen was off. It happens. Look, Burns is kind of a clown, but Tester is too liberal to unseat an incumbent Republican in Montana. He's no Schweitzer, and he couldn't do it either (now he could, but that's because he's been Governor).

Ohio-- Sherrod Brown isn't going to win. That's what it really boils down to.

Likely Republican
Arizona-- please...

+Tennessee-- the Ford that wasn't.



Safe Republican
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah

Virginia-- dream on. Allen has more money in his couch than Webb does in his campaign coffers.

Wyoming

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Overall, I don't think that many seats will change hands. The open seats probably will be split, possibly 3-1 either way but more likely 2-2. Democrats have a better shot at 3/4 than does the GOP. Democrats will take out at least 1 GOP incumbent but probably not more than 2. Burns and Chafee are the two most likely victims after Santorum.

Cantwell and Stabenow are the only 2 Dem incumbents with serious challengers. Both are currently favored but there's around a 25% chance one of them will wind up losing, Cantwell being more likely.