Official Post your 2006 Senate Election Prediction Maps

[Ben.]

Senate Break Down

Republicans: 53 (-2)
Democrats: 46 (+2)
Independents: 1

As I’ve always said I think Santorum will close strong in the PA senate race but it just won’t be enough and baring a major failure on the part of the Democrats Bob Casey will be PA’s next junior Senator.

I think that after Pennsylvania there are a string of contests which will be very close even with political trends going in the Democrat’s favour next fall, open races in MD and MN while close will probably see Democrats retain those seats.

GOP incumbents in OH, MT and MO will be under huge pressure from strong Democratic challenges but the power of incumbency still counts for something and all three represent states which Bush won in 2004 and can boast strong political machines of their own. But in the end I think that one of the three might very well produce a Democratic pick-up…

In Ohio it’ll be close but I think DeWine should eek out a win over Hackett and will probably beat Brown soundly should he be the Dem candidate.

In Missouri Talent has a strong challenge to contend with but has cash and connections and is not desperately unpopular and while the national trend might see him ousted despite his best efforts I think he’ll hang on.

Montana has all the ingredients for a classic upset, scandal plagued and uninspiring incumbent a popular and energetic state Democratic Party with two credible candidates, if any of these three Republican held seats flip I think it might very well be Montana.

Another open race in Tennessee will be hotly contested and while Harold Ford would be likely to run very strongly (he’ll break 45% IMO) as things stand he is most likely to lose to who ever the GOP candidate is next fall.

Long shot races for the Dems in Nevada and Arizona will come to nothing, though I’d expect both Pederson and Carter to do ok.

A major upset might be in Mississippi where if Lott decides to step down I would expect former AG Mike Moore to win an open contest even against well connected GOP congressman Chip Pickering.                                           

[Ben.]

Dems pick up 7 seats and retake the Senate.  You heard it here first.
Vermont is Sanders.

Hmmm… Senators Hackett, Morrison, McCaskill, Ford, Moore and Casey.

Now that would be a mighty fine intake

Though I should say that both Nevada and Maine are GOP held and are, baring a disaster, going to remain so… much as I wouldn’t mind a Senator Carter to add to the above intake      

Your map does suggest that 2006 is getting increasingly competive for the Dems, especially where Lott to retire and Moore to run… it all depends on getting the right candidates especially in states like Ohio and Montana, both Missouri and Pennsylvania seem to have good solid Dem challengers, the party’s position in potentially troublesome states like Florida, Minnesota and Maryland has stabilised a great deal and we now look to be favoured in all three.       


And if the stars align just right next fall, maybe… just maybe I could wake up to…





It might take a huge amount of good fortune for the Dems and a lot of bad luck for the GOP, it just within the bounds of possibility, in all likelihood it won’t happen… but let me dream!         

[Ben.]

Ben, doesn't your map two posts above just show 6 pickups?

Yep...

[Ben.]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups. In fact, winnign back the senate ever looks kind of bleak, really...

Realistically I agree I think that the Dems will probably win PA (though not by the huge margins the polls currently suggest), beyond that there are a few races with plenty of potential in the end I think the Democrats stand to pick up one of Montana, Ohio, Missouri or Tennessee but while I think Montana is well positioned for a surprise Dem win – Tennessee, Missouri and Ohio will be very tough for Dems and Ohio can be written off if Brown is the nominee.

On the brightside should Lott step down I think that Moore probably beats Pickering or who ever the GOP puts up for the seat, though it’ll be a highly competive race and a Moore win will owe far more to Moore’s own appeal and popularity than the campaigning ability or appeal of the Democratic Party.

Also on the plus side for the Dems polls suggest that both New Jersey and Minnesota will be held, while both Maryland and Florida look secure so it’s possible that the Republicans wont make any gains next fall and combined with two Democratic gains out of the contests in MT, OH, PA, TN and MO along with a possible third gain should Lott step down in MS means that net gains of somewhere in the region of 2-3 seats in the senate for Dems.               

[Ben.]

My 'conventional'/ maximum incumbency map would have Dem +1 or +2 (Pennsylvania and maybe Rhode Island).

I just don't see RI flipping if Chafee is the GOP candidate no matter how tough the primary... if Lott steps down and Moore runs then the Dems have as good a shot in MS as anywhere, and certainly a better chance than in RI, beyond that I would have thought that the Dems can cobble together a win in one of TN, MO, OH or MT my bet being on MT with Morrison.

Beyond that I don’t see how the GOP wins either MN or MD both are seeing the Dems polling strongly and the trend that year would seem to be likely to favour the Dems over the GOP so I think the GOP’s best hope must be NJ and even there Martinez is polling ahead (!) 

Assuming Lott runs in MS, then I think PA is the only state which is likely (though not certain) to flip, Dems have an even chance of picking up one of MT, TN, MO or OH and if Lott does indeed retire and strong candidate such as Moore run I think that race would be wide open potentially even favouring Moore… I think that RI is probably on a par with AZ in terms of being competitive.     

[Ben.]

Dream away, but I don't think it's gonna happen...I think we'll have to be content with something like 1-2 pickups.

If you are referring to net gains in the Senate, even that is a bit optimistic.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My opinion exactly.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans are going to make headway next year -and for that, in light of all their troubles this year, Republicans should feel grateful that they do not fare any worse. 

Heh, you're being really pessimistic. Not getting at least one seat would be a really poor showing considering the situation. I do think Dems will get PA and I expect perhaps 2 more seats to change hands (unforeseen ones, that is). I think it will net out at 1 seat gain for the Dems, or thereabout.

I meant in terms of the partisan make-up in the Senate, which I predict will remain static -I am sure Democrats can definitely gain Pennsylvania and (less likely) Rhode Island, but Republicans will likely pick up Minnesota and (less likely) New Jersey, therefore cancelling each other's gains out.   

The likley Dem candidate leads Kennedy by 7-8 pionts in MN - if anything the contest leans towards the Dems, NJ is more worrying IMHO. 

[Ben.]

My over/under for Democratic pickups is +3. Anything less than 3 net pickups would be a disappointment in my eyes.

Agreed I think its more likely to be 2 but maybe 3.

I think PA will turn into a tough fight but Casey should probably be able to win

At least one of OH (so long as the Dems in the state don’t nominate Brown), MO, MT or TN should flip and my money is probably on MT, Burns as a discredited incumbent, the advances of the local Dems in the state and both Morrison and perhaps Tester as capable challengers suggests it’s a contest with all the ingredients for a classic upset over an incumbent Senator.

If Lott steps down and the year is a on balance a good one for the Democrats then Mississippi should and will be a top priority with Moore probably running and offering the party its best shot for a pickup after Casey in PA.

On top of all this, time is getting might short for the GOP in FL, Harris will probably be the candidate and has surprisingly little cash with which to run her campaign and will probably go down to a fairly hefty defeat next fall [evil grin], Minnesota as you say is swing back to the Democrats with Amy Klobuchar emerging as a powerful candidate who is now racking up consistently clear leads (bigger than Cardin in MD) in a race that pundits still seem to think leans towards the GOP – on top of which Kennedy appears to not be the hugely powerful candidate we where lead to believe he would be. New Jersey and Maryland remain competive, as does MN for that matter, but as in MN the Dems have the edge and there is little evidence to suggest that they will lose it between now and next fall – not to tempt fate

So as I say I think as things stand the Dems should make a net gain of 2 seats but should Lott stand down there is an excellent chance that Moore will pick up a third in Mississippi – what’s more Hackett, McCaskill and Ford will all be competive in their own states though I think they’ll all face an uphill struggle to win.       

[Ben.]

That's rather generous to the GOP.  Why Florida?

lol! Harris beating Nelson! she doesn't even have the money to run campaign ads right now!

As for MN, i think its becoming clearer and clearer that Kennedy is not as strong a candidate as we where lead to believe and that Amy Klobuchar at the same time is proving an unexpectedly strong candidate.

And then there’s New Jersey, which I think is probably the one best hope for a GOP pick up, but even in New Jersey national factors and the state’s strong Democratic tilt are producing polls which show Bob Menendez (on paper a very weak candidate) leading Tom Kean (in contrast a much stronger candidate on paper). So even here in what is the GOP best shot (IMHO) their chances can’t really be considered much better than evens.

Added to which there is the potential for an exceedingly competitive race in MS should Lott retire in which Mike Moore would probably enjoy a slight edge and added to which the Democrats would have credible chances in MT, OH (assuming Brown isn’t nominated), TN and MO though I’ll concede that in all these states the GOP starts out as the favourite.

So in short +3 gains for the GOP in the Senate is bordering on wishful thinking.           

[Ben.]

I was feeling optimistic.   It's just a feeling I have...that will most likely be wrong. (Hopefully in PA )

Fair enough… I must confess that for a long time I’ve been urging Dems to be cautious about Florida, while unlike many other southern states you need to do more than get the Republican vote out in order to win state-wide getting that vote out, as Harris probably will, still nets you a healthy share of the vote – but with her fundraising compared to Nelson’s and the current polls I think that what glimmer of a chance remained for a republican pickup in the sunshine state is fading fast.

Minnesota and New Jersey seem to be favouring the Dems right now but I’d agree that both will be very close in the end… PA I’d expect to go Dem but I don’t think it’ll be by a wide margin.   

[Ben.]

Revised prediction.

Firstly some general trends on which this prediction is based… 

I have no doubt that the GOP once again will display its traditional flare for campaign and we’ll see a disciplined, concerted campaign from the Republicans securing good showings in close races across the country.

Despite the GOP’s structural advantages this will be the third election where they have been in effective control of all three branches of government and there will be a “voter fatigue” factor exacerbated by the scandal (identified by many with the GOP’s congressional leadership) and this will have an impact, though perhaps it will be more marked in the House rather than the Senate.

While the GOP can be expected to conduct its campaign with drive and discipline I have no doubt that as usual the Democrats will conduct a largely directionless and ill disciplined national campaign  which will see the competive races largely decided on the basis of the strengths and weaknesses of the local campaigns. With no “theme”, “narrative”, “message” and the increasing failure of a party that seeks to hold together a collation of Michael Moore and Barbra Boxer together with Phil Bredensen and John Breaux to endorse a single national platform makes any Democratic version of ’94 or ’02 highly unlikely.             

As I’ve said I think that in the House Republican weakness and a number of strong Democratic candidates might well produce a good haul for the Democrats, the Senate is likely to make for gloomier reading.   


No Republican incumbent is stepping down this year (save Frist) while in contrast two Democrats are and a third race (in New Jersey) could easily be characterised as an “open race” with Bob Menendez’s elevation to replace Jon Corzine last year. All three races see strong GOP candidates behind which their parties have largely united against a string of less impressive Democratic candidates.

While Steele is proving a strong candidate, Cardin is also a credible candidate for the Dems and MD’s strongly Democratic tilt is likely to mean the Democrats retain the senate seat in contrast the Democrat’s enjoy no such advantages in MN and a very close race seems likely (though I’ve given the edge to Kennedy I’d still say it’s a toss-up).

Of all the three “open” races New Jersey is perhaps the GOP’s best prospect; a strong candidate in the form of Tom Kean and a weak Democratic incumbent will probably enable the GOP to maintain and increase Kean’s early lead in the polls making a pickup IMHO very likely.         

 
Despite the fact that no Republican (save as mentioned Frist) is standing down this year there are a number of weaker incumbents in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana and Missouri. Of these potentially competitive races for the Democrats in RI, MT and OH have been undermined by the failure of the party to produce any particularly strong candidates and while the Dem’s prospects can’t be ruled out its likely that the Republican incumbents will be able to outspend and beat their comparatively lightweight opponents in November (though outsider chances for the Dems certainly exist in all three).


Central to Democratic hope this year is Pennsylvania, where the Party has recruited a powerful candidate in the form of State Treasurer Bob Casey the son of popular former Governor Robert Casey. Casey’s task is much tougher than the early polls might suggest his opponent, incumbent republican Rick Santorum is a prodigious fundraiser and energetic campaigner and has come from behind to win before, yet Casey is a strong candidate as well and continues to lead Santorum by anything from 10-15 points. Santorum is also hurt by the fact that he is an overtly partisan and ideological politician, with a long paper trail, in a moderate State which generally favours Democrats facing a popular moderate Democrat in the form of Casey. The race will narrow significantly as Election Day draws near but it seems unlikely that Santorum, however much some might hope, will be able to over come the gap.         
   
Beyond Pennsylvania only one other state has show consistent leads for the Democratic candidate and that has been Missouri. It seems to not be that Jim Talent is hugely unpopular but rather that he faces a challenger (in State Auditor Claire McCaskill) whom many Missouri voters seem to have taken a real liking to and seems to be running a strong concerted campaign even this far out. Talent has demonstrated a impressive ability to raise cash in the past and no doubt he will this year – however its undeniable that McCaskill and the Dems will also raise plenty of cash with which to challenge Talent. Like Minnesota this race will be close right to the end but unlike Minnesota I’d give the edge to the Dems here.       


Finally there’s Tennessee, maybe I should have dismissed the prospects for Harold Ford just as I did those of Morrison, Hackett and Brown by ranking it as a long shot, but you can’t take away from the fact that polls repeatedly show the race as close and Ford has sunk a great deal of effort and money already into the race and over a divided GOP field it maybe that this race will prove a sleeper – without a doubt the GOP will enjoy an advantage but it will likely remain a slight one and one which could vanish altogether should Ford continue to pursue the same effective and concerted campaign he is at present.


In other races, little to report really, Allen will win in Virginia though I can’t help thinking that with cash James Webb will perform surprisingly well, though its highly doubtful that he’ll even come close to winning. In Nevada if Goodman runs things could well get interesting, if its Carter expect a solid re-election for John Ensign but I wouldn’t put a credible performance past Carter. Florida no doubt (excepting a late entry by another republican) sees an impressive win for Nelson over a hapless Harris campaign.   



Republicans: 55 (nc)

Democrats: 44 (nc)

Independents: 1 (nc)   

[Ben.]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

Kean will win New Jersey.

[Ben.]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

Kean will win New Jersey.

We can certainly hope.

Indeed its time the place got someone competent and decent to represent them… New Jersey deserves better than the triumvirate of Corzine, Menendez and Lautenberg        

At the same time though Casey will win in PA - by the skin of his teath.

[Ben.]

Republicans: 56 (+1, Minnesota)
Democrats: 43 (-1)
Independents: 1

Kean will win New Jersey.

No

Oh...but he will.

No

Yes.

I'm certainly surprised that you believed Kean will win.

After all, Bush was going to win 40 states.

Kean’s polling a damn site better in New Jersey than Kennedy is in Minnesota and Menendez is certainly a weaker opponent than Klobuchar seems to be proving and yet you seem to think that Kennedy will win in MN, what’s more I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kean garner a whole load more cash than Kennedy, primarily from the big GOP donors in NY and the North East who simply don’t have any other local candidates to give to.   

What Bush winning 40 states has to do with it I don’t know though.

[Ben.]

Ohio: Another toss-up here. I was expecting a narrow Dem pick-up here with the meltdown of the state GOP, but lately I have seen DeWine with a slight lead over Brown. I may change my prediction later on.

"slight lead"!!! - He beating Brown by nine pionts and that without running a single ad!

[Ben.]

That seems likley, though MT, MN and MO will be on a knife edge and PA will be closer than folks think (though i'd imagine - Hope - Casey will win).

[Ben.]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

[Ben.]

That sounds about right, but I think OH and TN will be closer. I didn't know Goodman was running, though.

Maybe TN, but Brown is going to get crushed in OH.

I don't know about "crushed," but I think that the whole Paul Hackett debacle really hurt his chances of winning.

To be fair Brown hurt his chances of being elected on his own, he combines a very liberal voting record with a prickly persona…

A liberal could be elected in Ohio if his votes seemed coherent and he was both articulate and engaging (a-la Feingold or even Harkin) but Brown is neither articulate nor engaging and his voting record is little more than a shopping list for various liberal pressure groups and trades unions.

On top of all this DeWine was never in desperate trouble, his base might not have been happy with him but they will troop out for Blackwell in all likelihood come election day and would never countenance backing a candidate like Brown.

A maverick like Hakcett who seemed independent and coherent had a long shot, though he would probably have lost while Rep.Tim Ryan would probably have had a better chance but would still have been in a very tight race.

Brown’s votes outside of Cleveland will come thanks to Strickland being on the ballot and general dissatisfaction with the Bush and the GOP nationally and it will not be enough. DeWine will win Republican handily, ditto independents and will potentially take a significant share of Democratic voters – in the end I’d expect him to win by anything from 6-12 points over Brown.