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Author Topic: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps  (Read 54380 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: December 21, 2005, 05:39:03 pm »

This is subject to change as new polls and information on candidates emerge:




Light blue/red: Very close election
Plain blue/red: Reasonably close
Dark blue/red: Wide margin of victory
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Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2005, 05:41:21 pm »
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Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold



This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.


« Last Edit: August 26, 2006, 01:03:31 pm by Maverick »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2005, 05:43:40 pm »

Ah, I was trying to figure out how you did your shading.  I was wondering why you had Ohio so deeply red, but then I realized you've made the darker colors pickups.
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2005, 06:53:09 pm »
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Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2005, 08:42:55 pm »
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2006 and 2007 - confidence map (relative, not actual precentages):

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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2005, 08:52:01 pm »
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Q, that is quite an accurate map, in my opinion. 
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2005, 08:55:34 pm »

Wikipedia is keeping a fairly useful summary of all the guber elections next year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Gubernatorial_elections%2C_2006
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2005, 09:07:16 pm »
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Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2005, 09:09:54 pm »


Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...


Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2005, 11:19:50 pm »
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Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)

I'll go with this for right now, also.
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2005, 12:28:04 am »
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Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...


Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.
Sorry...I meant to put "Predictions for 2006/7/8"...it must've been erased.
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2005, 12:37:38 am »
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Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2005, 08:49:36 am »
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30%=close
40%=lean
60%=fairly solid

MA, NY, CA, OH to Dems, WI and IA to GOP.
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2005, 12:04:17 pm »
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Break Down

Republicans: 23 (-5)
Democrats: 27 (+5)

Democrats are very well positioned in New York but while he’ll win I’d expect Spitzer to be forced into more of a fight by Bill Weld than the polls might now suggest.

There are good signs that the Democrats will also score pickups in Maryland and Massachusetts, more competitive races where the Democrats are, on balance, favoured will take place in Ohio, Arkansas and Alaska.

Despite Schwarzenegger’s weakness the Democrats have little in the way of a strong candidate and most importantly a compelling and attractive narrative of how to solve the state’s fiscal woes; consequently I’d expect Arnie’s campaigning flare to trump the best efforts of the Democrats to oust him from office next fall.

Iowa will be a close contest but I’d expect Jim Nussle to win by a clear margin after a very competitive campaign, in Minnesota GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty is also likely to be re-elected by a clear margin but will probably have a healthy contest on his hands all the same.

While Alabama, Colorado, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin are likely to see competive races the incumbents (or incumbent parties) are probably going to hold on to the governor’s mansions in those states.


The 2007 contests will be interesting as they will enable use to finally see what political impact the population shifts that followed Katrina will have.

Prior to Katrina, Haley Barbour was struggling however Barbour emerged from the aftermath of the hurricane well but importantly the gubernatorial contest will occur over two years after Katrina and Barbour is unlikely to draw as much benefit from his handling of the crisis as he might of done had his campaign for re-election been in 2005/06 rather than 2007. What is more Barbour may have a strong Democratic candidates be if current AG Jim Hood or former AG Mike Moore (assuming of course Moore hasn’t been elected to the senate the year before Wink )… if neither runs then Barbour will probably win over nominal opposition, yet I think a competitive and close race is most likely.     

Kathleen Blanco’s handling of Katrina was widely pilloried and her approval number have all but collapsed, its interesting that prior to Katrina, unlike Babour, she was doing alright and would probably have won a fairly easy re-election. But even though Blanco relied less on the solidly Democratic Afro-American communities of New Orleans than other Democratic state office holders the huge depopulation of that area and combined with the widespread criticism of her handling of the aftermath of the hurricane  means that she will probably draw a top-tier GOP opponent and will be defeated, that is of course if she survives the primary… the Democrats in the end might be better to dump her and nominate a less tarnished more competive candidate for governor such as Lt.Governor Mitch Landrieu or even former Senator John Breaux (who has expressed interest in the post in the recent past).                     

While Louisiana might provide bad news for Democrats, Kentucky will probably cheer them up. The State GOP and incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher are mired in scandal on an enormous scale and what makes it even worse is that Fletcher is likely to seek re-election in 2007 making a divisive GOP primary a likelihood, on top of this the state’s democratic party can boast a number of powerful candidates such as the 03 candidate and current congressman Ben Chandler and state auditor Jonathan Miller. So on balance while Louisiana is likely to tip to the GOP, Mississippi likely to provide a close contest, Kentucky is a probable Democratic pick-up.         


   
« Last Edit: December 22, 2005, 12:05:57 pm by Lt. Governor Ben. »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2005, 12:14:12 pm »
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Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.


He’s a pretty popular and indeed effective governor and the polls seem to suggest he’ll win pretty handily added to which he’s a republican incumbent in South Carolina Cheesy   
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2005, 02:48:08 pm »
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There are rumors that Murkowski isn't running for re-election.  I think that would be a toss-up, or a solid Dem if Knowles runs again.
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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2005, 08:15:18 pm »
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>30% Tossup
>60% Lean
>90% Solid

Switches:

D-->R
Iowa
Illinois

R-->D
Massachusetts
Maryland
Ohio
California
Arkansas
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« Reply #17 on: December 23, 2005, 12:35:53 am »
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Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.

I'm sorry, but I disagree.  This is a libertarian-cloaked in Evangelism governor, in a like-minded state.  I've seen an ungodly number of Sanford stickers affixed to Saudi juice-guzzlers dropping their kid off at an all white--errr...private--school while they go wine-tasting for the day (so the wine-tasting part is made up, but I do wonder whether people in Chucktown have jobs).  I have yet to see one Moore sticker.  The fact is that my soon-to-be former state is run by Hilton Head, gentrified-Charleston and Mt. Pleasant, and Lexington county.  They must not happen to have polling places in Orangeburg or Columbia.  The place is pretty scary, as is Georgia (kind of hoping the family reunion will be elsewhere!).  I have few problems with the Evangelism, but the abounding flat tax bumper stickers make my blood boil.
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« Reply #18 on: December 23, 2005, 01:00:00 am »
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I'm sorry, but I disagree.  This is a libertarian-cloaked in Evangelism governor, in a like-minded state.
I haven't seen any Sanford signs around here in Lexington County, but I have seen quite a few Lovelace signs.  Sanford has managed this past year to keep making the people who should be supporting him look for an alternative, and at this point, if he wins the primary it will be purely because of the power of being the incumbent and the fund-raising that goes with it.  In seven months he's gone from a net +18% approval to a net +3% approval and if he keeps slipping at this rate, he'll be down to a net -10% disapproval rating by the primary.  If Sanford gets into a fourth lackluster sparring round with the General Assembly again, the question won't be will Moore be able to beat Sanford, it'll be can Lovelace repeat beating the political pro a second time come November.

All that said, I still expect Sanford to get four more years, but it isn't anywhere near a lock, especially if we get more of Sanford's dog and pony show instead of something he can point to as an accomplishment.
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« Reply #19 on: December 23, 2005, 01:48:02 am »
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I'm not really sure who is term-limited or not, so I just kept CO, GA, MN, & others Repub, since I dunno about Bill Owens, Sonny Perdue, and Tim Pawlenty, etc.
I think that PA, OR, MI, and AL are all tossups, so I just stuck with the incumbent just to predict SOMETHING.  These will also be the closest races.
CA, OH, NY, and MA are coming back to us.
WI, ME, NH, IA, and IL are going to switch the next election cycle.
Everything else stays the same.

edit: I don't really know why I thought that the gov. of NH had a low approval rating.  Lynch keeps his seat.

As an edit, I change my prediction on Arnold, and believe now that he will, in fact, keep his seat.
Also, AR will be a tossup.
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« Reply #20 on: December 23, 2005, 02:04:45 pm »
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Illinois is staying put.  Judy Baar Topinka will win the primary, and she's not a strong candidate.  Rauschenberger would make it close, perhaps even win.  As  unpopular as Blagojevich is, Topinka won't be able to take him down.  Especially without Dem primary opposition.
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« Reply #21 on: December 28, 2005, 01:15:24 pm »
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Arkansas will be close but bush and Huckabee will push Hutchison over the top. Iowa will go down to the wire. If Bushs approval rating stays under 50, then the dems will have a great night with pickups in MD, CA, MA, CO, OH.

Surprises could be Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin it all depends on Bush.
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« Reply #22 on: December 28, 2005, 01:18:16 pm »
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Arkansas will be close but bush and Huckabee will push Hutchison over the top. Iowa will go down to the wire. If Bushs approval rating stays under 50, then the dems will have a great night with pickups in MD, CA, MA, CO, OH.

Surprises could be Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin it all depends on Bush.
If things depend on Bush, we're screwed, b/c I guarantee his approvals will be at least 47% (I'm thinking around 52%) on 2006 Election Day.
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« Reply #23 on: December 28, 2005, 01:18:21 pm »
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Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)

Whoops, I forgot about Illinois.  Blagovejoke is sure to lose, So D+3.
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« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2005, 01:56:33 pm »
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>30% Tossup
>60% Lean
>90% Solid

Switches:

D-->R
Iowa
Illinois

R-->D
Massachusetts
Maryland
Ohio
California
Arkansas

Even though New York is basically a sure thing, it still has a Republican governor right now.
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