Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps

[Grad Students are the Worst]

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?

63% and 72% no opinion vs. 7% no opinion is a sign of lower name recognition. Amazing rocket science, huh?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?

63% and 72% no opinion vs. 7% no opinion is a sign of lower name recognition. Amazing rocket science, huh?

Well, that's obvious now that I've seen those numbers.  I still don't see why I'm "busted," unless you were busting me on not having a perfect memory of anything.  You don't always have to "win."

[Boris]

Dems gain: California, Colorado, Ohio, Maryland, New York, Massachusettes
Republicans gain: Illinois

I'm basically unsure about Iowa and Pennsylvania, but right now I'm assuming that an anti-GOP mood will keep both of those stats in the democratic column. But seeing as a lot can change in nine months, the aforementioned states along with Illinois represent the GOP's best chance for pickups.

Florida, thanks to solid approval ratings of Governor Jeb Bush, will remain in the GOP's column.

For now, I'm keeping Pawlenty ahead in Minnesota and Granholm ahead in Michigan, although both of these races will probably be competitve.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Minnesota: Another interesting race that I think could break either way, though I am predicting a very small Dem gain; I have heard from a Minnesotan friend that the Dems are ripe for big gains in the state legislature and may elect a Dem governor to go along. I'm leaning Hatch.

Gains in the legislature, yes, likely. Big gains? Unfortunately not, at least in the House. The good news however, is that's because most of the competetive Republican held seats were already lost in 2004. They lost 13 seats. That was one of 2004's few bright spots for me. Admittedly the DFL leadership of the Senate has been far from perfect, but it's certainly more competant than the Republican leaders who want to throw important issues like the budget behind stupid wedge issues. But to see Hatch win, the DFL take the House, and gains in the Senate would just make my day.

[??????????]

Florida: Another interesting race here...I say it's a toss-up, and give it to the Republican because of Florida's GOP trend.

Toss-up? Davis is just within 13% of Charlie Crist. I wouldn't really consider that a "toss-up" but I guess with the way Dems have been winning lately that's pretty close.

[Gustaf]

Likely to switch/vulnerable seats:

1. New York - not much to say, open seat, very Democratic state, very popular Democrat candidate, split on the GOP side and huge Democrat lead in all polls. As safe as it gets.

2. Arkansas - a little cheeky, but this is a very Dem state on the local level and the Democrat is leading in polls. Also, isn't Hutchiunson a former GOP senator? I have my doubts about running ex-electe officials (kind of like Mattingly in Georgia)

3. Colorado - another somewhat bold positioning on my side...but Colorado seems to have a Democrat trend, with Salazar's election and a Dem legislature, one of few non-Southern states to have that while being GOP for so long. And, of course, RItter is doing pretty well in polls.

4. Massachusetts - Open seat in very Democrat state. Yeah, there was that close poll, but MA should still elect a Democratic governor.

5. Ohio - With Coingate and all that and Strickland seemingly a strong candidate this ought to be an easy pickup for Dems. But there seems to be no end to the mess-ups the Ohio Dems are capable of, so I'm not too confident yet.

6. Iowa - Open seat, and everyone says Jim Nussle is so great. There also seems to be a marginal GOP lean in Iowa. Very, very marginal, yes, but it's still there. Could this become another Ohio?

7. Illinois - Impopular incumbent who seems to have a strong opponent in Topinka, whom I think he trailed by as much as 11 points in the last poll. On the other hand, he's a Democrat in a Dem state. Marginal GOP lean.

Cut-off between states that I predict will change hands and those that will not!

8. California - I got a hunch the Guvernator will still pull through. California is an expensive media market for his, as far as I can tell, pretty weak opponents. An incumbent always has an advantage, even if Ahnuld is not pollingvery strongly.

9. Maine - Baldacci is improving his previously poor poll numbers. He's the 3rd in this row of about equally impopular incumbents in about equally Democratic states. He gets the edge over Arnold because he's a Democrat in a Democratic state and over Blagojevich because he doesn't seem to have as strong opposition and is polling better.

10. Wisconsin - the last spot is a close call between Doyle and Pawlenty. Minnesota is the more Democratic state, but Pawlenty seems to be the more popular incumbent. Since the personalities are probably more important I put Doyle here.

That makes it
Dem to Rep: 2
Rep to Dem: 5

Net change: Dem +3

OVerall 25-25

[MasterJedi]

10. Wisconsin - the last spot is a close call between Doyle and Pawlenty. Minnesota is the more Democratic state, but Pawlenty seems to be the more popular incumbent. Since the personalities are probably more important I put Doyle here.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Oh God, thank you I needed a good laugh after today!

Do you mean to be talking about Wisconsin or Minnesota here?

[Gustaf]

What? If you mean to say that Pawlenty is a lot safer than Doyle, then yes, you're probably right. I should perhaps explain that my list is very much affected by what happens right now, so I took the most recent MN poll into account. I think that the most recent polls show both races as equally close.

Or...wait...you think I'm mixing up the races? I'm not, I'm trying to explain why Wisconsin is the 10th spot, and not Minnesota...I'm not under the imperssion that Pawlenty and Doyle are running against each other, if that's what you think...

[Soaring Eagle]

Likely to switch/vulnerable seats:

2. Arkansas - a little cheeky, but this is a very Dem state on the local level and the Democrat is leading in polls. Also, isn't Hutchiunson a former GOP senator? I have my doubts about running ex-electe officials (kind of like Mattingly in Georgia)

7. Illinois - Impopular incumbent who seems to have a strong opponent in Topinka, whom I think he trailed by as much as 11 points in the last poll. On the other hand, he's a Democrat in a Dem state. Marginal GOP lean.

Asa Hutchinson is the erm... sibling of former Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchinson, who was defeated for reelection in 2002 by Mark Pryor, which is another reason for a Democrat to win the governorship in AR.

Your assessment of Illinois is pretty accurate. Topinka is pretty much the only Republican statewide office-holder, and is the best candidate the GOP could produce (her major opposition comes from Jim Oberweis, who is too right-wing while Topinka is relatively moderate). However Governor Blagojevich has a health care plan in the works, which, if passed, could be enough to secure his reelection. I wouldn't exactly call it a GOP lean, though. But that's just me.

[Jake]

Asa Hutchinson's a man...

[Soaring Eagle]

Asa Hutchinson's a man...

Really? I read somewhere it was his sister...
Ah, well. You're probably right.

[Gabu]

Asa Hutchinson's a man...

That's what they want you to think.

I actually made the same mistake with the governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, mainly because the only instances of "Haley" that I've known were female.

[Gustaf]

Blagojevich approval ratings are really, really poor. When you're that impopular and you face a credible candidate, I say you're in trouble. I go by recent polls quite a lot, and the last one gave Topinka an 11 point lead. Unless that changes I'm gonna give her the edge.

[Soaring Eagle]

Blagojevich approval ratings are really, really poor. When you're that impopular and you face a credible candidate, I say you're in trouble. I go by recent polls quite a lot, and the last one gave Topinka an 11 point lead. Unless that changes I'm gonna give her the edge.

Where is this poll? The last one I saw had Blagojevich leading. But yeah, he isn't that popular. He's a good guy, but gets a lot of negative press.

[Gustaf]

Ah, whoops. I missed the latest poll from Rasmussen. That does change things. I twould then be:

7. California
8.Maine
9. Illinois

Democrats thus still take 5 seats, GOP only 1. Democrats have the majority of Governors, 26-24.

[Democratic Hawk]

Light blue/red: Toss-up
Plain blue/red: Lean
Dark blue/red: Solid

I've called them (and I'm sticking with them), no matter how implausible some of these predictions may be

Dave

[Frodo]

BUMP

And will someone ever sticky this?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Dave has added the 2006 Gubernatoral Projections application, so be sure to make predictions there, too, so we can get a good base going.

[MasterJedi]

And will someone ever sticky this?

PM or IM Supersoulty and then you'll get it to happen.

[MasterJedi]

And will someone ever sticky this?

PM or IM Supersoulty and then you'll get it to happen.

He is hardly ever around, and even if I do PM him, it will take a (long) while before he responds -if he does. 

Well waiting a little while is better then never having it stickied.

[Gabu]

Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Prediction Map


Confidence Map

[Jake]

Stop the drug use.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Stop the drug use.

His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

EDIT: Colorado doesn't make sense either, as Gabu said.