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Author Topic: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps  (Read 54362 times)
Gabu
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« Reply #75 on: April 09, 2006, 09:35:52 pm »
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His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

I'm also curious why Colorado is R 60+%, given that polls have shown the Democrat with a slight lead.
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Gabu
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« Reply #76 on: April 09, 2006, 09:38:10 pm »
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Here's my current prediction, which will most likely change later:

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Mr. Paleoconservative
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« Reply #77 on: April 09, 2006, 09:48:08 pm »
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His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

I'm also curious why Colorado is R 60+%, given that polls have shown the Democrat with a slight lead.

I did not take the time to alter percentages on many of the states; my map is a general prediction of who will win, not by how much.
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« Reply #78 on: April 09, 2006, 10:43:10 pm »
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Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.

Do you have any suggestions for replacements?
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« Reply #79 on: April 09, 2006, 10:44:41 pm »
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Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.

Do you have any suggestions for replacements?

Hi. Smiley
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Mr. Paleoconservative
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« Reply #80 on: April 16, 2006, 01:52:48 pm »
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For some reason linking to the maps does not appear to be working.

« Last Edit: April 16, 2006, 02:46:18 pm by Reagan Raider »Logged



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« Reply #81 on: April 16, 2006, 02:27:07 pm »
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For some reason linking to the maps does not appear to be working.

Can you post what code you are trying to use, even if it does not work?  We can probably troubleshoot based on that.
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« Reply #82 on: April 16, 2006, 02:39:27 pm »
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Here is how I am linking the maps, the same way I link every other image on this board.



You are using the wrong URL.  Right-click on it, click View Image, and then copy the URL from the address bar.  I'm not sure why Firefox is showing only that URL, but it's the wrong one.

Hope that works.
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« Reply #83 on: April 16, 2006, 02:45:07 pm »
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Prediction Map


Confidence Map
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« Reply #84 on: April 18, 2006, 07:00:02 am »
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Update:

Top 10 vulnerable:

1. New York: seems to have everything going the Democrats' way. Heavily Democratic state, popular Dem candidate, split Republican side...if they can't win this they can't win anything. An assured pick-up IMHO and Spitzer might even break Schumer's result.

2. Massachusetts: has elected a lot of GOP govenrors, but trends are to be broken. A state that is both very Democratic and VERY liberal doesn't give much wiggle-room for Republicans. Polls have shown Democrats doing very well too.

3. Arkansas: Beebe might not be up by double digits, but he's ahead and Arkansas likes to vote Democrat if given an excuse. I fully expect them to do so again this time.

4. Colorado: wins the 4th spot narrowly over Ohio. State seems to be trending Democrat, it's an open seat and Ritter has been polling well.

5. Ohio on the other hand is much more Republican locally, but I still give Strickland the edge given Taft's approval and the polls we've seen from there.

6. Iowa: the only state I expect Republicans to win. It's a tossup but everyone talked about Jim Nussle so much...

Cut-off between those who I predict as switching and those who I don't

7. Maine: Might be a last hurrah for the old GOP tradition. Baldacci is sufficiently unpopular that he might lose, even though polling numbers have been improving. Still gives him the edge, I do.

8.  Mihcigan: Granholm seems to be polling worse and worse. I still thinks she wins, but it's tightening up.

9. Oregon: Kulongonski is unpopular and the state is only a little Dem-leaning. I still expect a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic year in a marginally Democratic year to win, but who knows?

10. Wisconsin: even approval rating, even race, even state. Very tough call, but Wisconsin is slightly, ever so slightly Democratic, Doyle's approval seems to be going in the right direction and he has incumbency. I think he'll still win.

Off the list: California

Democrats: +5
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« Reply #85 on: April 18, 2006, 10:54:11 pm »
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I may be dreaming, but I say:

Dems pick up:
Mass.
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
Ohio
Minnesota
Arkansas
Colorado
California
Alaska

The Dem. Party has benefited reatly from the Republican scandals.  I say the people show them what they think.
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« Reply #86 on: April 19, 2006, 05:19:36 am »
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I may be dreaming, but I say:

Dems pick up:
Mass.
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
Ohio
Minnesota
Arkansas
Colorado
California
Alaska

The Dem. Party has benefited reatly from the Republican scandals.  I say the people show them what they think.

You may be fooling yourself. I think the people will show YOU what they think.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #87 on: April 29, 2006, 11:46:50 pm »
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Giving my end of April Governor predictions.  You should see more in a couple of months when the primaries come and go.

Given in the same scale as the Senate predictions.  * means open seat:

Safe Democratic
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Arizona
Kansas (most likely to move to lean Dem, because of potential scandals)
Oklahoma (most likely one to move to safe over time, GOP has a credible challenger, but Henry's numbers are good)
Tennessee

Lean Democratic
Arkansas (R)*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Pennsylvania

Toss Up
Alaska (R) (major uncertainty in a number of facets of this race makes me keep it at toss-up)
California (R) (Westly is the stronger challenger by far)
Colorado (R)*
Illinois (D)
Iowa (D)*
Maine (D)
Michigan (D) (recent polling has had this race more close, than the earlier Granholm lead we saw.  Besides, Michigan has internal dynamics that could put state incumbents in trouble)
Minnesota (R)
Wisconsin (D)

Lean Republican
Alabama (I simply don't think Riley is as strong as some of his other Southern Republican brethren)
Florida*
Nevada*
Rhode Island

Likely Republican
Georgia
Hawaii
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota
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Harry
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« Reply #88 on: May 31, 2006, 06:10:06 pm »
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AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri
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Gabu
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« Reply #89 on: May 31, 2006, 06:16:46 pm »
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AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri

This is the place where people come to make predictions, not to post their dreams.
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Harry
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« Reply #90 on: May 31, 2006, 09:50:29 pm »
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AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri

This is the place where people come to make predictions, not to post their dreams.
This map is quite plausible should the current growing anti-Republican trend continue...it's not like I gave the Dems states they don't have a chance in...I didn't even give them Florida!
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« Reply #91 on: June 01, 2006, 01:05:08 pm »
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Your colors are backwards TxIndy.
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Nym90
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« Reply #92 on: June 01, 2006, 09:48:40 pm »
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Harry, your map is not entirely implausible at all, but it is highly unlikely that the Democrats would do that well. Literally everything would have to go their way.

I admit that my map is also a bit on the optimistic side, but I do agree with you that there is likely to be a Democratic tide this fall.
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TexasGurl
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« Reply #93 on: June 01, 2006, 09:57:33 pm »
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Nym90
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« Reply #94 on: June 01, 2006, 10:02:48 pm »
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Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.
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TexasGurl
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« Reply #95 on: June 01, 2006, 10:14:14 pm »
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Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.
Ye of little faith.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #96 on: June 02, 2006, 03:58:16 am »
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Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.
Ye of little faith.

But why specifically Connecticut? Why not Texas, Maine or even Idaho?
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« Reply #97 on: June 02, 2006, 02:26:45 pm »
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Pickups:
GOP - Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin
DEM - California, Ohio, New York, Alaska, Massachusetts

Tough Defenses but successful
GOP - Colorado, Maryland, Arkansas, Nevada, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, Rhode Island, Florida, Hawaii
DEM - Oregon, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wyoming, Maine, New Hampshire

I'm going a little against the grain in Colorado and Illinois. I made a wildarsed guess with Hawaii wen I went with the incumbent. Oregon was a very tough call with the split democrats there, but usually they find a way to win.

I couldn't find how to transfer my gubenatorial map (RepublicanMich) to this, so I used a modified "Elec College" map shading out "tossups" as non-contests.

« Last Edit: June 02, 2006, 02:29:04 pm by Republican Michigander »Logged

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #98 on: June 07, 2006, 03:39:04 pm »
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With last night's primary in tow, I am moving California to Lean Rep.

As an update, I would also move Alaska to Lean Dem, for now.  PA is on the cusp of moving to Likely Dem if another poll comes in echoing Q and R.
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Mr. Paleoconservative
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« Reply #99 on: June 13, 2006, 09:06:41 pm »
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My most recent prediction...

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“We can never be too tardy to begin the work of blood.”
“But it is a bad mode of settling disputes to make soldiers your ambassadors, and to point to the halter and the gallows as your ultimatum.”
-John Tyler, 10th President of the United States
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