Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps

[Gustaf]

Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.

Ye of little faith.

But why specifically Connecticut? Why not Texas, Maine or even Idaho?

[Republican Michigander]

Pickups:
GOP - Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin
DEM - California, Ohio, New York, Alaska, Massachusetts

Tough Defenses but successful
GOP - Colorado, Maryland, Arkansas, Nevada, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, Rhode Island, Florida, Hawaii
DEM - Oregon, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wyoming, Maine, New Hampshire

I'm going a little against the grain in Colorado and Illinois. I made a wildarsed guess with Hawaii wen I went with the incumbent. Oregon was a very tough call with the split democrats there, but usually they find a way to win.

I couldn't find how to transfer my gubenatorial map (RepublicanMich) to this, so I used a modified "Elec College" map shading out "tossups" as non-contests.

[Sam Spade]

With last night's primary in tow, I am moving California to Lean Rep.

As an update, I would also move Alaska to Lean Dem, for now.  PA is on the cusp of moving to Likely Dem if another poll comes in echoing Q and R.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

My most recent prediction...

[??????????]

What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?

Completely up in the air.  The Republicans have pro-choice big business friendly Ron Saxton, the Democrats have incompetent incumbent Teddy K, there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot, the Constitution Party has a solid candidate in Marry Starrett (Portland TV & Radio personality), the Libertarians have 2004 Sec. of State Candidate Richard Morley (Very smart, able to explain the Libertarian philosophy well), and the Greens have J. Keating (Typical burnt out Liberal).

The Governor's Mansion is completely up for grabs, and it is likely to be at least a three way race with Saxton, Teddy K, and Westlund.  That said, Starrett is picking up steam, and if Saxton screws up the Conservative vote may well completely be up for grabs making her a series player.   

Morley and Keating are 5% men, though Morley is very good, most of his constituency will go to Westlund.

It will be an interesting race for spectators, but as a person who is in the middle of it, who knows the players involved, it is even more fascinating.

[Keystone Phil]

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

[Keystone Phil]

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?

22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

[Keystone Phil]

22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

I see. I didn't follow the OR primary since I was too busy with PA results. I remember looking into the OR candidates earlier in the year though and thought Atkinson would be the best. For whatever reason, I thought he might have dropped out.

[MAS117]

[© Tweed the Younger]

Changes from last entry:

Alaska from D --> R: It looks like Murkowski is going to lose the primary.  A Republican who is not hated in the state will have a much better chance.  But this race remains very close and Knowles has a good chance.

Illinois from R --> D: Blagojevich sucks and I hate him, but he's doing slightly better in the polls now and looks to be a slight favorite.  However, he's still doing badly and isn't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

Maine from R --> D: Baldacci isn't in the terrible shape that we originally thought.  He should win.

Michigan from D --> R: I didn't believe Granholm was in really serious trouble until a DeVos took the lead.  Clearly DeVos would win if the election was held today, but it isn't going to be held today, so Granholm is still breathing.  DeVos doesn't really fit that state well, and if Granholm can exploit that she can still salvage the victory.  But DeVos has to be the slight favorite at this point.

Rhode Island from R --> D: Carcieri is in serious trouble.  I don't exactly know why; my theory is that it's that medical marijuana bill he vetoed.  The race is pretty much tied now, but I'll give it to Fogarty at this point due to the general anti-GOP nature of 2006.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are too close to call now.  I left them with the incumbents until further notice.

[Sam Spade]

An August 1 update to be nice. 

Safe Democratic
Arizona
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Kansas
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic
Alaska (R)
Arkansas (R)*
Illinois
Iowa*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss Up
Colorado (R)*
Maine (D)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)

Lean Republican
California
Florida* (probably won't be here for long)
Georgia
Michigan (D)
Nevada*
South Carolina

Likely Republican
Alabama
Hawaii 
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.

[Sam Spade]

Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.

In the polling, Douglas % not high enough for me.  Right now, it's sort of like Arizona:  I think it's heading to safe, but I'm playing it safe for the time being.

[12th Doctor]

Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...

Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.

Sorry...I meant to put "Predictions for 2006/7/8"...it must've been erased.

Send me some of what you're smoking.

[© Tweed the Younger]

2007 Party Breakdown: 29 D/21 R

[Sam Spade]

August 15 Update:

Alaska:  From Lean D to Toss-up based on Palin's polling and Murkowski's soon-to-be demise.
Colorado:  From Toss-up to Lean D.
Ohio:  From Lean D to Likely D.

[Sam Spade]

Moving Michigan back to Toss-Up.

[Frodo]

Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold



This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.

[Nym90]

Fordo, any particular reason why Wisconsin and Iowa go Republican but Michigan and Minnesota go Democratic? That would certainly seem an unlikely combination given the polls currently.

[Nym90]

http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php?year=2004

Um, is that supposed to be a response to me? I'm not sure. In any event, you might be implying that Wisconsin and Iowa are more Republican on the Presidential level than Michigan and Minnesota, which is true, but it would seem the Democrats have a better chance in the Governor's races this year in Wisconsin and Iowa than they do in Michigan and Minnesota (although I personally feel at least 3 of the 4 will go Democratic, and quite possibly all 4).

[© Tweed the Younger]

Maryland is over with.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Here are my updated predictions...