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Author Topic: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps  (Read 53939 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #100 on: June 14, 2006, 12:13:38 am »
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What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?
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Mr. Paleoconservative
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« Reply #101 on: June 14, 2006, 02:05:05 am »
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What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?

Completely up in the air.  The Republicans have pro-choice big business friendly Ron Saxton, the Democrats have incompetent incumbent Teddy K, there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot, the Constitution Party has a solid candidate in Marry Starrett (Portland TV & Radio personality), the Libertarians have 2004 Sec. of State Candidate Richard Morley (Very smart, able to explain the Libertarian philosophy well), and the Greens have J. Keating (Typical burnt out Liberal).

The Governor's Mansion is completely up for grabs, and it is likely to be at least a three way race with Saxton, Teddy K, and Westlund.  That said, Starrett is picking up steam, and if Saxton screws up the Conservative vote may well completely be up for grabs making her a series player.   

Morley and Keating are 5% men, though Morley is very good, most of his constituency will go to Westlund.

It will be an interesting race for spectators, but as a person who is in the middle of it, who knows the players involved, it is even more fascinating.
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« Reply #102 on: June 14, 2006, 02:07:48 am »
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there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.
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« Reply #103 on: June 14, 2006, 02:34:41 am »
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there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.
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« Reply #104 on: June 14, 2006, 12:29:27 pm »
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there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?
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« Reply #105 on: June 14, 2006, 01:11:19 pm »
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there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?

22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.
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« Reply #106 on: June 14, 2006, 03:04:56 pm »
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22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

I see. I didn't follow the OR primary since I was too busy with PA results. I remember looking into the OR candidates earlier in the year though and thought Atkinson would be the best. For whatever reason, I thought he might have dropped out.
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« Reply #107 on: June 14, 2006, 03:24:10 pm »
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« Reply #108 on: June 15, 2006, 10:11:54 am »
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Changes from last entry:

Alaska from D --> R: It looks like Murkowski is going to lose the primary.  A Republican who is not hated in the state will have a much better chance.  But this race remains very close and Knowles has a good chance.

Illinois from R --> D: Blagojevich sucks and I hate him, but he's doing slightly better in the polls now and looks to be a slight favorite.  However, he's still doing badly and isn't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

Maine from R --> D: Baldacci isn't in the terrible shape that we originally thought.  He should win.

Michigan from D --> R: I didn't believe Granholm was in really serious trouble until a DeVos took the lead.  Clearly DeVos would win if the election was held today, but it isn't going to be held today, so Granholm is still breathing.  DeVos doesn't really fit that state well, and if Granholm can exploit that she can still salvage the victory.  But DeVos has to be the slight favorite at this point.

Rhode Island from R --> D: Carcieri is in serious trouble.  I don't exactly know why; my theory is that it's that medical marijuana bill he vetoed.  The race is pretty much tied now, but I'll give it to Fogarty at this point due to the general anti-GOP nature of 2006.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are too close to call now.  I left them with the incumbents until further notice.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #109 on: July 09, 2006, 02:53:14 pm »
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An August 1 update to be nice.  Smiley

Safe Democratic
Arizona
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Kansas
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic
Alaska (R)
Arkansas (R)*
Illinois
Iowa*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss Up
Colorado (R)*
Maine (D)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)

Lean Republican
California
Florida* (probably won't be here for long)
Georgia
Michigan (D)
Nevada*
South Carolina

Likely Republican
Alabama
Hawaii 
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota
« Last Edit: August 04, 2006, 01:22:05 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
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« Reply #110 on: July 09, 2006, 03:06:57 pm »
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Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.
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« Reply #111 on: July 09, 2006, 03:13:52 pm »
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Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.

In the polling, Douglas % not high enough for me.  Right now, it's sort of like Arizona:  I think it's heading to safe, but I'm playing it safe for the time being.
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« Reply #112 on: July 16, 2006, 01:45:58 pm »
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Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...


Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.
Sorry...I meant to put "Predictions for 2006/7/8"...it must've been erased.

Send me some of what you're smoking.
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« Reply #113 on: August 11, 2006, 08:31:50 pm »
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2007 Party Breakdown: 29 D/21 R
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #114 on: August 15, 2006, 11:29:14 pm »
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August 15 Update:

Alaska:  From Lean D to Toss-up based on Palin's polling and Murkowski's soon-to-be demise.
Colorado:  From Toss-up to Lean D.
Ohio:  From Lean D to Likely D.
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« Reply #115 on: August 23, 2006, 12:45:31 pm »
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Moving Michigan back to Toss-Up.
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« Reply #116 on: August 26, 2006, 01:04:19 pm »
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Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold



This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.


« Last Edit: October 06, 2006, 06:13:36 pm by Maverick »Logged

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« Reply #117 on: August 28, 2006, 01:24:20 am »
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Fordo, any particular reason why Wisconsin and Iowa go Republican but Michigan and Minnesota go Democratic? That would certainly seem an unlikely combination given the polls currently.
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« Reply #118 on: August 28, 2006, 10:12:06 am »
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Um, is that supposed to be a response to me? I'm not sure. In any event, you might be implying that Wisconsin and Iowa are more Republican on the Presidential level than Michigan and Minnesota, which is true, but it would seem the Democrats have a better chance in the Governor's races this year in Wisconsin and Iowa than they do in Michigan and Minnesota (although I personally feel at least 3 of the 4 will go Democratic, and quite possibly all 4).
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« Reply #119 on: October 06, 2006, 07:07:13 pm »
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Maryland is over with.
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Mr. Paleoconservative
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« Reply #120 on: October 14, 2006, 10:59:53 pm »
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Here are my updated predictions...
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« Reply #121 on: October 21, 2006, 01:20:07 pm »
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The race in Minnesota is neck and neck.  The last few polls have showed Hatch with a lead or a dead heat. 

The most recent poll put Pawlenty (R) and Hatch (DFL) at a dead heat, but also gave Klobuchar a 7 point lead over Kennedy, the narrowest lead since July, so I have reason to think that this poll gave Republicans a 1-2% advantage.

The governor's race in MN will mostly be determined by GOTV.. the Democrats are fired up statewide, but because we have so many close races in the state, the Republicans will also be fired up.  Minnesota will have a very high turnout rate for this election, and it's going to go to either Pawlenty or Hatch with a very slim lead.  My guess would something like 50-48% for Hatch.
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« Reply #122 on: October 27, 2006, 12:20:21 pm »
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Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold



This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.




I agree with this map, except Minnesota.  I think Pawlenty will hold
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #123 on: October 27, 2006, 02:43:14 pm »
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I agree with this map, except Minnesota.  I think Pawlenty will hold

So you think Healey and Ehrlich are going to win?
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nick
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« Reply #124 on: October 27, 2006, 05:24:42 pm »
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Ehrlich are going to win?

Thats not out of the question now.  See my post here..

Also, Ehrlich received the endorsement of the WaPo this week.  On top of that, 20 year old not-guilty DUI has suddenly popped up.

The dynamics of this race have changed slightly.  Its probably a toss-up now.
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