Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps

[Sam Spade]

Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)

I'll go with this for right now, also.

[Sam Spade]

Giving my end of April Governor predictions.  You should see more in a couple of months when the primaries come and go.

Given in the same scale as the Senate predictions.  * means open seat:

Safe Democratic
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Arizona
Kansas (most likely to move to lean Dem, because of potential scandals)
Oklahoma (most likely one to move to safe over time, GOP has a credible challenger, but Henry's numbers are good)
Tennessee

Lean Democratic
Arkansas (R)*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Pennsylvania

Toss Up
Alaska (R) (major uncertainty in a number of facets of this race makes me keep it at toss-up)
California (R) (Westly is the stronger challenger by far)
Colorado (R)*
Illinois (D)
Iowa (D)*
Maine (D)
Michigan (D) (recent polling has had this race more close, than the earlier Granholm lead we saw.  Besides, Michigan has internal dynamics that could put state incumbents in trouble)
Minnesota (R)
Wisconsin (D)

Lean Republican
Alabama (I simply don't think Riley is as strong as some of his other Southern Republican brethren)
Florida*
Nevada*
Rhode Island

Likely Republican
Georgia
Hawaii
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota

[Sam Spade]

With last night's primary in tow, I am moving California to Lean Rep.

As an update, I would also move Alaska to Lean Dem, for now.  PA is on the cusp of moving to Likely Dem if another poll comes in echoing Q and R.

[Sam Spade]

An August 1 update to be nice. 

Safe Democratic
Arizona
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Kansas
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic
Alaska (R)
Arkansas (R)*
Illinois
Iowa*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss Up
Colorado (R)*
Maine (D)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)

Lean Republican
California
Florida* (probably won't be here for long)
Georgia
Michigan (D)
Nevada*
South Carolina

Likely Republican
Alabama
Hawaii 
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota

[Sam Spade]

Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.

In the polling, Douglas % not high enough for me.  Right now, it's sort of like Arizona:  I think it's heading to safe, but I'm playing it safe for the time being.

[Sam Spade]

August 15 Update:

Alaska:  From Lean D to Toss-up based on Palin's polling and Murkowski's soon-to-be demise.
Colorado:  From Toss-up to Lean D.
Ohio:  From Lean D to Likely D.

[Sam Spade]

Moving Michigan back to Toss-Up.