Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps

[Gustaf]

30%=close
40%=lean
60%=fairly solid

MA, NY, CA, OH to Dems, WI and IA to GOP.

[Gustaf]

Here is my first prediction map for this...

30%=seats that will change
40%=competitive seats that will stay where they are
60%=seats that will not change hands, nor be all that competitive.

So:
Dem to Rep: Iowa, Illinois and Maine
Rep to Dem: Massachusetts, New York, Colorado, Arkansas and Ohio

[Gustaf]

Likely to switch/vulnerable seats:

1. New York - not much to say, open seat, very Democratic state, very popular Democrat candidate, split on the GOP side and huge Democrat lead in all polls. As safe as it gets.

2. Arkansas - a little cheeky, but this is a very Dem state on the local level and the Democrat is leading in polls. Also, isn't Hutchiunson a former GOP senator? I have my doubts about running ex-electe officials (kind of like Mattingly in Georgia)

3. Colorado - another somewhat bold positioning on my side...but Colorado seems to have a Democrat trend, with Salazar's election and a Dem legislature, one of few non-Southern states to have that while being GOP for so long. And, of course, RItter is doing pretty well in polls.

4. Massachusetts - Open seat in very Democrat state. Yeah, there was that close poll, but MA should still elect a Democratic governor.

5. Ohio - With Coingate and all that and Strickland seemingly a strong candidate this ought to be an easy pickup for Dems. But there seems to be no end to the mess-ups the Ohio Dems are capable of, so I'm not too confident yet.

6. Iowa - Open seat, and everyone says Jim Nussle is so great. There also seems to be a marginal GOP lean in Iowa. Very, very marginal, yes, but it's still there. Could this become another Ohio?

7. Illinois - Impopular incumbent who seems to have a strong opponent in Topinka, whom I think he trailed by as much as 11 points in the last poll. On the other hand, he's a Democrat in a Dem state. Marginal GOP lean.

Cut-off between states that I predict will change hands and those that will not!

8. California - I got a hunch the Guvernator will still pull through. California is an expensive media market for his, as far as I can tell, pretty weak opponents. An incumbent always has an advantage, even if Ahnuld is not pollingvery strongly.

9. Maine - Baldacci is improving his previously poor poll numbers. He's the 3rd in this row of about equally impopular incumbents in about equally Democratic states. He gets the edge over Arnold because he's a Democrat in a Democratic state and over Blagojevich because he doesn't seem to have as strong opposition and is polling better.

10. Wisconsin - the last spot is a close call between Doyle and Pawlenty. Minnesota is the more Democratic state, but Pawlenty seems to be the more popular incumbent. Since the personalities are probably more important I put Doyle here.

That makes it
Dem to Rep: 2
Rep to Dem: 5

Net change: Dem +3

OVerall 25-25

[Gustaf]

What? If you mean to say that Pawlenty is a lot safer than Doyle, then yes, you're probably right. I should perhaps explain that my list is very much affected by what happens right now, so I took the most recent MN poll into account. I think that the most recent polls show both races as equally close.

Or...wait...you think I'm mixing up the races? I'm not, I'm trying to explain why Wisconsin is the 10th spot, and not Minnesota...I'm not under the imperssion that Pawlenty and Doyle are running against each other, if that's what you think...

[Gustaf]

Blagojevich approval ratings are really, really poor. When you're that impopular and you face a credible candidate, I say you're in trouble. I go by recent polls quite a lot, and the last one gave Topinka an 11 point lead. Unless that changes I'm gonna give her the edge.

[Gustaf]

Ah, whoops. I missed the latest poll from Rasmussen. That does change things. I twould then be:

7. California
8.Maine
9. Illinois

Democrats thus still take 5 seats, GOP only 1. Democrats have the majority of Governors, 26-24.

[Gustaf]

Update:

Top 10 vulnerable:

1. New York: seems to have everything going the Democrats' way. Heavily Democratic state, popular Dem candidate, split Republican side...if they can't win this they can't win anything. An assured pick-up IMHO and Spitzer might even break Schumer's result.

2. Massachusetts: has elected a lot of GOP govenrors, but trends are to be broken. A state that is both very Democratic and VERY liberal doesn't give much wiggle-room for Republicans. Polls have shown Democrats doing very well too.

3. Arkansas: Beebe might not be up by double digits, but he's ahead and Arkansas likes to vote Democrat if given an excuse. I fully expect them to do so again this time.

4. Colorado: wins the 4th spot narrowly over Ohio. State seems to be trending Democrat, it's an open seat and Ritter has been polling well.

5. Ohio on the other hand is much more Republican locally, but I still give Strickland the edge given Taft's approval and the polls we've seen from there.

6. Iowa: the only state I expect Republicans to win. It's a tossup but everyone talked about Jim Nussle so much...

Cut-off between those who I predict as switching and those who I don't

7. Maine: Might be a last hurrah for the old GOP tradition. Baldacci is sufficiently unpopular that he might lose, even though polling numbers have been improving. Still gives him the edge, I do.

8.  Mihcigan: Granholm seems to be polling worse and worse. I still thinks she wins, but it's tightening up.

9. Oregon: Kulongonski is unpopular and the state is only a little Dem-leaning. I still expect a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic year in a marginally Democratic year to win, but who knows?

10. Wisconsin: even approval rating, even race, even state. Very tough call, but Wisconsin is slightly, ever so slightly Democratic, Doyle's approval seems to be going in the right direction and he has incumbency. I think he'll still win.

Off the list: California

Democrats: +5

[Gustaf]

I may be dreaming, but I say:

Dems pick up:
Mass.
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
Ohio
Minnesota
Arkansas
Colorado
California
Alaska

The Dem. Party has benefited reatly from the Republican scandals.  I say the people show them what they think.

You may be fooling yourself. I think the people will show YOU what they think.

[Gustaf]

Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.

Ye of little faith.

But why specifically Connecticut? Why not Texas, Maine or even Idaho?

[Gustaf]

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...

[Gustaf]

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...

I am, though some of those could just as easily go the other way. ID, for example, came pretty much out of nowhere. Have you seen those polls?

I'm also tempted to give NV back to the GOP. I'm not sure how this whole bit with Gibbons is going to play out.

Idaho I have no problem with, but Alaska? And Nevada? Not to mention Rhode Island...but, oh well. It isn't super-crazy I guess.