Japan's population starts to shrink

[2952-0-0]

Japan population starts to shrink 

Japan's population is set to drop this year for the first time since records began more than a century ago, according to a government report.

Deaths are expected to exceed births by 10,000, and inward migration will not make up the difference.

The drop, which has been predicted for years, was blamed on a falling birth rate and a rise in flu-related deaths.

The government has acknowledged a shrinking population could jeopardise Japan's long-term economic health.

"Our country is now standing at a major turning point in terms of population," Health, Labour and Welfare Minister Jiro Kawasaki told a news conference.

"We must take counter-measures against the falling birth rate along with measures to support and foster our future generations," he said.

The latest data showed the number of births - falling since the 1970s - was expected to fall by 44,000 to 1,067,000 in 2005.

The number of deaths rose 48,000 to 1,077,000 as Japan's ageing population fell prone to illnesses like flu.

Japan's population research institute said that even when foreign migrants were taken into account, the country's population would still fall by 4,000 in 2005.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said a government panel was due to recommend appropriate policies to this end next June.

"We consider measures against the declining birth rate as very important," he said. "We have expanded child-support allowances in the recent budget, and we hope to further expand other benefits to counter the declining birth rate."

Japanese women have cited inadequate child care, low part-time wages and long hours worked by their husbands as some of the reasons why they do not have any children, or only have one.

Japan's population of 128 million is projected to fall 100 million by 2050 if current trends continue.

[DanielX]

Japan's population of 128 million is projected to fall 100 million by 2050 if current trends continue.

Fall BY 100 million, or fall TO 100 million? Big difference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. On the subject of population trends, something historic was spotted over here very recently. Wanna guess what it was? And why I'm happy about it?

[afleitch]

Interesting. On the subject of population trends, something historic was spotted over here very recently. Wanna guess what it was? And why I'm happy about it?

I have no idea, but i'm already making constituency maps based on Scotlands 2024 population estimate

Was it that the UK surpassed 60 million?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have no idea, but i'm already making constituency maps based on Scotlands 2024 population estimate

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Nope; internal migration is heading North for the first time since 1971 at least. If trends keep up (and it seems likely that they will) this will be the first major change in direction since the Depression (when the Southward trend started to kick off in a big way).

[opebo]

internal migration is heading North for the first time since 1971 at least. If trends keep up (and it seems likely that they will) this will be the first major change in direction since the Depression (when the Southward trend started to kick off in a big way).

What is causing this?  The South just getting too ridiculously expensive?

[afleitch]

Everywhere is expensive. But city generation is working wonders in the North. Scotland is seeing an eastward move in population which means that by 2040 Edinburgh will surpass Glasgow as our largest city (and get 6 MP's to boot come 2024 ) Lanarkshire will increase its population, but Ayrshire and Renfrewshire will decrease.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is causing this?  The South just getting too ridiculously expensive?

Economic recovery in the North mainly. Ex-pat Northerners coming home is probably the biggest cause; for the past thirty odd years most Northern familes had a relative who had moved South for work.
A big change in the South is coming soon; a massive increase in house building along the Thames Estuary as part of the Government's "Thames Gateway" plan. The population of that area is growing pretty quickly anyway; it's going to go through the roof in some places soon.

[opebo]

Everywhere is expensive. But city generation is working wonders in the North. Scotland is seeing an eastward move in population which means that by 2040 Edinburgh will surpass Glasgow as our largest city (and get 6 MP's to boot come 2024 ) Lanarkshire will increase its population, but Ayrshire and Renfrewshire will decrease.

Are these are positive developments?  I must say I can't tell.

I've certainly heard that houses are much cheaper in the north than in london..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

. Scotland is seeing an eastward move in population which means that by 2040 Edinburgh will surpass Glasgow as our largest city

By that you mean biggest council area, right? Unless my memory is wrong, Edinburgh City includes a fair few suburban areas (and... whatsitcalled... Queensferry?) while Glasgow City is basically the core of the conurbation (and not even that in places). Much more like an American city actually.

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More political influence for Edinburgh? Drat.

[afleitch]

Yes they gave Edinburgh some 'breathing space' to the west and Pentlands but Glasgow was cut right back to the bear bones. Rutherglen, Hamilton and Motherwell and other suburban towns reliant on Glasgow will see a population increase even if Glasgow sees a fall (mostly due to clearances of the 50's and 60's 'slums') So in effect the population is drifting outwards away from the city boundary but not necessarily away from the city itself.

With Renfrewshire and Dumbartonshire seeing a decrease that in effect makes some of the small councils less viable as seperate entities, there could be a cause for Glasgow to see her boundaries expanded. But once again Edinburgh based bigwigs will no doubt deny her that privelage

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Found some maps:

[afleitch]

I am genuinely angry at Glasgow's treatment and those maps show it clearly. Suburbs culled from Glasgow and you can see the impact that the  loss of Rutherglen/Cambuslang has made.

The boundary used to only a 15 minute walk from my home, now its a 20 minutes drive away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am genuinely angry at Glasgow's treatment and those maps show it clearly. Suburbs culled from Glasgow and you can see the impact that the  loss of Rutherglen/Cambuslang has made.

The boundary used to only a 15 minute walk from my home, now its a 20 minutes drive away.

Yeah, the Glasgow map is just crazy. Looking at the map, Rutherglen-Cambuslang, Thornlillebank (did I spell that right?), Paisley, Bearsden and some area without a name (nearest is Cadder) seem to be clearly linked to the city proper; and if you're doing unitaries such areas should very cleary be part of the city.
In contrast, Edinburgh has what looks like a ring of commuter villages within it's boundaries...

[afleitch]

Exactly. They have a Glasgow postcode, the trains got to Glasgow, they shop in Glasgow, work in Glasgow get their water through Glasgow and are under Glasgow NHS yet they are not in the city council.

Luckily they are being depopulated; the old 1930's semis cost too much for young people to buy who are flooding into Glasgow's West End leaving an over 50's ghetto in some areas, particularly Thornliebank. Newton Mearns is actually a town with a high proportion of affluent ethnic minorities (though still small by English standards)

[2952-0-0]

This thread has veered off topic

[Gabu]

This thread has veered off topic

That's what you get when you let those uppity English post.

[KEmperor]

You know, when I first saw this thread, I thought that the Japanese people were shrinking themselves.

[Gabu]

You know, when I first saw this thread, I thought that the Japanese people were shrinking themselves.

Hey, they've shrunk everything else.