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Author Topic: U.K election maps  (Read 38526 times)
Sibboleth
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« on: December 25, 2005, 04:00:08 pm »
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As a sort of Christmas present to you all...



I've decided to make some maps of past U.K election results (I boundaries at that nice scale from 1955 onwards; the rewards of politely emailing people I think).
I intend to make a map of % majorities at every General Election from 1955 onwards (eventually) and that's probably the only time I'll use the full maps; I'd prefer to do % vote maps and % vote by party maps for smaller areas (ie; Wales, London, etc.). Would show up a lot better anyway as there'd be no threat of resizing. If larger maps end up being resized, just copy them and paste onto a paint thing or something to look at.
1974Feb was the first election I decided to do as (IMO anyway) it's probably the most important post-45 election in determining the political landscape. You literally can't compare national PV figures before 1974 and after 1974; before then it was common (even in times of three big parties like the '20's) to have just two candidates in each constituency; a couple of M.P's were even unopposed. After then all three major parties have tried to run candidates in every seat, every election.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2005, 04:07:04 pm »
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Thanks Al Smiley I'm working backwards on my Scottish stuff for uni and I was about to do the two 74 elections! My boundary maps were a little offset when I did 79 and this should correct them Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2005, 03:19:20 pm »
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Very interesting. I wonder how the 2005 result would have looked on these boundaries ?

If you draw a line from the Wash to the Severn its not that different from the 2005 result. The area north of that divide is very different. Especially in Cheshire.
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2005, 12:06:50 am »
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interesting so this is 1974 what were the results seat totals. 

the conservative party doesn't do good in scotland anymore right,  I thought they only had a few seats now. it looks like they had a lot more back then.
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2005, 09:14:37 am »
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Thanks! That's great, but it's being shown as smaller on my computer... Still I can make it out.

Interesting to see how safe Tory Brighton Pavilion was, especially with that West Sussex seat (which i presume contains Horsham and Crawley) being fairly marginal. Also, I wouldn't have expected there to be a Labour MP from the Medway area in such a close election. I would've assumed the Home counties to be even more a no-go-area for Labour back in those days/
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2005, 10:19:30 am »
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Thanks! That's great, but it's being shown as smaller on my computer... Still I can make it out.

That's the forum's doing I think... it auto-resizes now. To see the map in it's proper size, copy it and paste it onto a paint file or something similer.

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Interesting to see how safe Tory Brighton Pavilion was,

Demographic changes are only part of the story there; IIRC the current seat has some dodgy areas that used to be in Kemptown until '97.

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especially with that West Sussex seat (which i presume contains Horsham and Crawley) being fairly marginal.

In fact it was called Horsham & Crawley Wink
The SE New Towns were still, well, new, back then, so they were still almost entirely made up of ex-pat Londoners from working class families, and voted like it (look at Harlow. The Tories actually came *third* there in 1974F...). They all took a hard swing to the right in the '80's and a slightly less hard one back to the left in the late '90's.

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Also, I wouldn't have expected there to be a Labour MP from the Medway area in such a close election.

The big pink seat is the old Gravesend constituency if that helps. IIRC Rochester & Chatham (I think that was the name) fell to Labour in October though. Gillingham was a fairly safe Tory seat at the time.

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I would've assumed the Home counties to be even more a no-go-area for Labour back in those days/

A lot of people assume that, but Labour becoming little more than a fringe party in many of them didn't really start to happen until the '80's. Some of them (notably Herts) were actually better bets for Labour then than they are now... and this is the case with just about all of them in the '60's.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2005, 10:29:17 am »
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interesting so this is 1974 what were the results seat totals.

Labour 301, Tory 297, Liberal 14, SNP 7, PC 2, Ind Lab 1 [Blyth], "Dem Lab" 1 [Lincoln].
Tories won the popular vote by about 200,000 votes. Labour formed a minority government and called a new election in October.
The election was a failed gamble on the part of Heath; he carefully picked a fight with the NUM in the hope that the resulting miners strike would cause a big rise in anti-union sentiment and result in a nice big win for him. Didn't work out that way...  

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the conservative party doesn't do good in scotland anymore right,  I thought they only had a few seats now. it looks like they had a lot more back then.

Yeah, at the moment they only have one and only won it because it was a new seat and anti-Tory tactical voters weren't sure to to vote for. They lost their other seat (held by the then Shadow Sec of State for Scotland) to Labour following major boundary changes.
The Tory collapse in Scotland came in two waves; 1987 (which was partially turned back in 1992) and 1997... when they lost every single seat they had in Scotland. Both 1974 elections were seen (at the time) as bad 'uns for the Tories north of the border. Tells you have much times have changed really.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2005, 10:38:38 am »
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Very interesting. I wonder how the 2005 result would have looked on these boundaries ?

A much larger Labour majority; there were still a load of Labour seats with tiny electorates back then (inner city seats being the obvious but not only ones; Abertillery falls into that catagory as well. And if it had been a seperate seat this year the bizarre civil war in the BG CLP wouldn't have happend as Law would *already* be M.P for Abertillery...) and then you have all the seats that were much better for Labour on those boundaries; Brecon & Radnor included a lot of territory that's now in some of the Valleys seats for example.

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If you draw a line from the Wash to the Severn its not that different from the 2005 result. The area north of that divide is very different

Well spotted. It's especially stark if you control for demographic changes...

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Especially in Cheshire.

And Northern Lancs
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2005, 10:39:20 am »
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Thanks Al Smiley I'm working backwards on my Scottish stuff for uni and I was about to do the two 74 elections! My boundary maps were a little offset when I did 79 and this should correct them Smiley

Smiley

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Any suggestions for the next one to do?
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2005, 11:00:08 am »
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according to the map of 2005 on the BBC website (where you can click on a seat and it shows the results) I was looking around  there were some other seats that were kind of close with the conservative party in second, any chance the conservatives pick up seats in Scottland next election.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2005, 11:11:18 am »
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according to the map of 2005 on the BBC website (where you can click on a seat and it shows the results) I was looking around  there were some other seats that were kind of close with the conservative party in second, any chance the conservatives pick up seats in Scottland next election.

Oh yes, there's still quite a few seats were the Tories are fairly strong in Scotland. Dumfries & Galloway (the Galloway part was the Tories only M.P from Scotland's seat in the 2001-2005 Parliament) is probably a very unlikely gain now, but they are breathing very hard down the SNP's necks in Angus and Perth & North Perthshire. In the longrun they should really think about rebuilding themselves in Edinburgh... and then there's always that Borders seat held by Mike Moore (LibDem).
One hope of their's that was dashed with the boundary changes was Ayr; it were cut into pieces and largely combined with an ultra-Labour old mining area (the core of the old Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley seat)...
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« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2005, 12:12:54 pm »
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Thanks Al Smiley I'm working backwards on my Scottish stuff for uni and I was about to do the two 74 elections! My boundary maps were a little offset when I did 79 and this should correct them Smiley

Smiley

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Any suggestions for the next one to do?

1983 would be fun- esepcially to see how well the Alliance polled (or didn't poll in all honesty) in certain seats


according to the map of 2005 on the BBC website (where you can click on a seat and it shows the results) I was looking around  there were some other seats that were kind of close with the conservative party in second, any chance the conservatives pick up seats in Scottland next election.

Oh yes, there's still quite a few seats were the Tories are fairly strong in Scotland. Dumfries & Galloway (the Galloway part was the Tories only M.P from Scotland's seat in the 2001-2005 Parliament) is probably a very unlikely gain now, but they are breathing very hard down the SNP's necks in Angus and Perth & North Perthshire. In the longrun they should really think about rebuilding themselves in Edinburgh... and then there's always that Borders seat held by Mike Moore (LibDem).
One hope of their's that was dashed with the boundary changes was Ayr; it were cut into pieces and largely combined with an ultra-Labour old mining area (the core of the old Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley seat)...

I agree. The Conservatives can only benefit in Scotland from an SNP downturn combined with a little tactical voting to unseat them. The fact they won Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale instead of Dumfries and Galloway as was expected was the strangest suprise. However with the removal of Dumfries and the Lanarkshire ex mining villages (where the SNP poll strangely well in local council elections) made it easier for them to take. Any strong movement against the Lib Dems could see them loose Berwickshire; unlikely but it is still early days.

In the Scottish Parliament they are doing better in terms of FPTP seats holding 3; Ayr, Galloway and Pentlands. Perth is in reach next time round, but other seats like Eastwood are not as within reach as they should be.
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Peter
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« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2005, 01:52:41 pm »
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You can find the Feb 1974 results here if you are interested. I'm not sure how reliable these results are.

Horsham & Crawley was an interesting seat - it went 42% Con - 33% Lab - 24% Lib in Feb74. Methinks that if it had existed in 1966 (the Horsham of then covered the entirity of the North of West Sussex), it might well have gone Labour: Just imagine that, Horsham represented by a Labour MP.

I liked the slightly hidden joke: Never, ever ask the British electorate who governs Wink
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2005, 03:28:25 pm »
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You can find the Feb 1974 results here if you are interested. I'm not sure how reliable these results are.

Interesting; seems to be using similer sources to me. Well if someone else is using them they can't be *that* far out (or can they? *shudders at some of the cock-up's made in newspaper reports of the 2005 election...*).

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Horsham & Crawley was an interesting seat - it went 42% Con - 33% Lab - 24% Lib in Feb74. Methinks that if it had existed in 1966 (the Horsham of then covered the entirity of the North of West Sussex), it might well have gone Labour: Just imagine that, Horsham represented by a Labour MP.

IIRC the Tory majority in Horsham in '66 was something like 8,000 (in an extremely oversized seat so that's nowhere near as impressive as it looks)... and seeing as how the areas lost to Chichester are (IIRC) extremely Tory... Horsham & Crawley would probably have gone Labour in '66... Grin Grin Grin

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I liked the slightly hidden joke: Never, ever ask the British electorate who governs Wink

Wink Grin

There was an excellent cartoon done at the time (no, I'm not that old. It was reprinted in a magazine a few years ago) showing Heath and his cabinet walking through a devastated urban landscape and Heath saying something along the lines of "I'm just wondering if it was the wrong question to ask".
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Peter
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« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2005, 04:20:07 pm »
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IIRC the Tory majority in Horsham in '66 was something like 8,000 (in an extremely oversized seat so that's nowhere near as impressive as it looks)... and seeing as how the areas lost to Chichester are (IIRC) extremely Tory... Horsham & Crawley would probably have gone Labour in '66... Grin Grin ;

Only 6,000 apparently, in a constituency with an 88,000 electorate. Also, the suggestion that there are any non-Tory voters in that bit of Sussex will get you hunted like a fox (no, literally).

Also, whilst you might not have been alive in 1974, you clearly are Anuerin Bevean reincarnate.
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« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2005, 04:55:17 pm »
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88,000. It seems the Conservatives even then suffered from an electoral bias towards inner city and urban seats Smiley
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« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2005, 05:57:16 pm »
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Al,

I, personally, would be interested to see 1992...the election where Labour snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

BTW...is there any possible way you can indicate if a seat flipped? and from what party?
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2005, 12:51:43 pm »
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And now for 1983...



Couple of points:

*The SDP have their own colour [a sort of purple; SDP colours were red and blue so...] which shows up fine on my computer, but might not on some others. If you get confused, I can give you a list of SDP seats.

*Interesting to note that, despite the landslide, very few Tory seats had majorities over 40%. It's also strange to see so many Labour strongholds with such small majorities.

*This election was the last one in the Pre-Benn era of Chesterfield

*As always if the forum auto-resizes the map, just copy it onto a paint file to look at.
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2005, 02:40:19 pm »
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Also, whilst you might not have been alive in 1974, you clearly are Anuerin Bevean reincarnate.

+ = Al

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« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2005, 11:24:50 am »
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Argh the 1983 is horribly depressing! Is it possible to do a %vote map? It would be interesting to see how it maps the "spoiler effect" of the SDP.
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« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2005, 11:33:47 am »
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It would be interesting to see how it maps the "spoiler effect" of the SDP.

I could do that, yes (probably on a smaller scale map with some zoom-in's just for my sanity).
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2005, 11:51:48 am »
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It is lovely to see all that blue...and very little yellow!
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Peter
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2005, 01:00:10 pm »
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If only Shirley had run against Roy or David had beaten Roy, then maybe we could have had a little more purple on that map.

I might do a map under my wet dream scenarios of the Alliance taking some chunks out of the Tories and Labour or something.
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« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2005, 01:16:57 pm »
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If only Shirley had run against Roy or David had beaten Roy, then maybe we could have had a little more purple on that map.

I might do a map under my wet dream scenarios of the Alliance taking some chunks out of the Tories and Labour or something.

Like winning East Kilbride Smiley
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« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2005, 02:47:10 pm »
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If only Shirley had run against Roy or David had beaten Roy, then maybe we could have had a little more purple on that map.

I might do a map under my wet dream scenarios of the Alliance taking some chunks out of the Tories and Labour or something.


This book had a very interesting scenario where the SDP did much better in 83 and finished second in terms of share of the vote…


http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1842751115/qid=1135885595/sr=8-3/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i3_xgl/026-6556848-0894018

Interestingly a further swing against Labour would have secured very few seats for the SDP – Owen always argued that the SDP’s failure in 83 was winning over sufficient wet Tories – however a small swing from the Tories to the SDP produces a fair few extra gains.

Here are the tables from the book…


Alliance poll 350,000 more votes (around 1% more than in reality) taken entirely from Labour:

Table 1 - 1983 General Election – Con: 41.4%, Alliance 26.6%, Labour 26.4%.

Conservatives – 403
+ 9 from Labour.
- 3 to Alliance.

Labour – 199
- 9 to Conservatives.
- 1 to Alliance.

Alliance – 27
+3 from Conservatives.
+ 1 from Labour.   


Labour fall into third place entirely due to defections to the Conservatives: 

Table 2 – 1983 General Election – Conservatives 44.7%, Alliance 25.4%, Labour 25.3%. 

Conservatives – 420

Labour – 185 

Alliance – 24


Alliance gains five percent from the Conservatives and five percent from Labour.

Table 4 – 1983 General Election – Conservatives 37.4%, Alliance 35.4%, Labour 22.6%

Conservatives – 346
- 51 to Alliance.

Labour – 184
- 25 to Alliance.

Alliance*
+51 from Conservatives. 
+25 from Labour.   

* Shirley Williams retains her seat.

In this scenario further defections by Labour MPs would be very likely, most interestingly would Tony Blair newly elected Labour MP for Sedgefield defect to a surging and invigorated SDP? When a newly elected MP he made loud noises about the party having eighteen months left to live unless it radically reformed, after such an electoral meltdown would he have just jumped ship? Brown was and is too tribal a politician to defect from Labour and would have been one of a small voice of Labour moderates probably including himself John Smith, Roy Hattersely etc…

One thing the article does suggest is that it would have been nearly impossible for the SDP/Liberal Alliance to have come second in terms of seats even with where it to do spectacularly well, indeed it would probably have had to have come first in its share of the vote to have come second in terms of its tally of MPs.         
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