1968: LBJ runs again
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  1968: LBJ runs again
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Author Topic: 1968: LBJ runs again  (Read 2571 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: December 25, 2005, 04:17:09 PM »

Suppose instead of dropping out, LBJ runs for a second full term as everyone expected him to.

Does he keep Humphrey as his running mate?  (probably)
Does Eugene McCarthy run as an independent?

Maps?
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jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
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« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2005, 04:22:28 PM »

Hmm, depends on who the Republicans nominate.

If they noiminate a conservative Southerner, then GOP takes the South and manages to scrape off lots of the Midwest and North, where LBJ and McCarthy split up liberal vote heavily.  GOP win electoral majority.

If they're stupid and they nominate a Nothern liberal, LBJ takes all of the South and holds parts of the North (minority votes).  He achieves at least an electoral plurality (with McCarthy scraping off a few states) if not an electoral majority.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2005, 04:25:23 PM »

They'd probably nominate Nixon.
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M
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« Reply #3 on: December 25, 2005, 08:08:42 PM »

Johnson victory IF he can win the Democratic nomination. After New Hampshire, the biggest threat wasn't gonna stay McCarthy for long- it would be Johnson's arch-rival Bobby Kennedy.
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A18
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2005, 04:41:42 PM »

Does Wallace run? If not, Nixon wins easily.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2006, 01:38:32 PM »

A bigger win for Nixon over LBJ than over Humphrey.  By 1968, LBJ was thoroughly discreditred.  It would have turned into a decisive defeat for LBJ.  Eugene McCarthy would not have launched an independent candidacy.

Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew                     362
Lyndon Johnson/Humbert Humphrey      131
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay                   45

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Erc
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2006, 04:20:35 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2006, 04:24:10 PM by Erc »

Eugene McCarthy would not have launched an independent candidacy.

Why not?  I'm not too familiar with McCarthy, but given that Nixon appears to be the least pro-Vietnam-War candidate in the race (which is saying a lot), why wouldn't he make a run?  Party loyalty?  --McCarthy ran as an independent in '76 (when Vietnam wasn't a factor), and supported Reagan in 1980 if I remember correctly, so it's not a huge hurdle to break ranks.

If McCarthy did run as an independent, what sort of an effect would that have?  Would he have any chance of winning states, or would he solely serve to make sure Nixon gets 400 EV Wilson-style?
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