I can't actually see any of those.
Are you a paid or "contributing" (with full site access in exchange for a negotiated amount of research toward improving the site, like certifications of the vote for a state for an election or election year etc.) member of this site. If not, than I don't think you can view either the swing and trend maps made by Dave on the site or the ones made by others such as me for the forum by adjusting the source code for the map image.
Maine seems difficult to predict due to the character it shares with New Hampshire and Vermont;
I'd never thought about that as being the reason, but come to think of it, it makes a lot of sense. A lot of Mainers do have modern Vermonter-views on social political issues and on the importance of those issues as essential to their "live and let live" way of life, but a lot of Mainers also have "leave me alone" attitude in the anti-taxation and anti-"leftist" regulation sense (it's not just economic issues where the Republicans tend to be more hands off than the Democrats, I'll admit that - gun control is a prime example) that make the state a less than solid Democratic one at the Presidential one and a competitive one at the Congressional and state level, although a Democratic-leaning one at the state legislative level I'd say. The New Hampshire element in the political psyche of Mainer's seems most prominant and prevalent in the second congressional district, and the Vermont element much less so in that district than in the first. Those two seeming facts (even if you explain those elements without bringing New Hampshire and Vermont into the equation) largely explain why the second district was closer (less Democratic and more Republican) than the first district in both 2000 and 2004. As New Hampshire and Vermont each swung Democratic from 2000 and 2004, it's little surprise that Maine, and both it's more New Hampshire-like and Vermont-like congressional districts, swung away from Bush between those two elections.
I imagine it will continue voting Democratic but it go narrowly for John McCain if he campaigned there and given the right circumstances.
I'll agree with that. I think even he would more likely win without winning any of Maine's electoral votes than win because of or lose dispite winning some or all of Maine's electoral votes, unless Hillary Clinton or (a/another, depending on your point of view) very liberal Democrat was the Democratic nominee in which case the second district could well be as Republican as the nation, although McCain would likely win well over 270 electoral votes in that case anyway. Maine would most likely swing and 'trend' Republican from 2004 to 2008 however if McCain is the Republican nominee, and I don't think nominating someone like Warner would due much to stop that swing or trend, not that the swing would necessarily be big enough swing to flip the state anyway, but I think it would be big enough at least to make the results like those in 2000 rather than those in 2004.
Sincerely,
Kevin Lamoreau