Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation
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Author Topic: Maine county swings and 'trends' v. the nation  (Read 1324 times)
Kevinstat
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« on: December 26, 2005, 07:17:53 PM »
« edited: October 13, 2010, 10:32:06 AM by Dave Leip »

Testing... based on what A18 has said in his thread-starding posts on Virginia county swings and "trends," I think this only works for paying members.  Here are the swing maps, which I believe track the swings in the two party (the nationally recognized Democratic and Republican tickets, not that there were many Dixiecrats in Maine) popular vote for President.

1892



1896



1900



1904



1908



1912



1916



1920



1924



1928



1932



1936



1940

I don't see any maps before the 1912-1916 map, but others might.  I know that, in general, at least, there aren't even state pages for Presidential elections before 1892, so I'm pretty sure no server would pick up any maps from converting the code used in showing maps from later 4-year intervals to intervals beginning before 1892.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2005, 08:23:48 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2010, 10:32:41 AM by Dave Leip »

Here are the two-party "trend" v. the nation county maps for Maine through the interval 1936-40.  Again, I believe this only works for paying members and that this measures trends v. the nation in the two-party popular vote for President.

1892



1896



1900



1904



1908



1912



1916



1920



1924



1928



1932



1936



1940
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2005, 08:37:13 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2010, 10:33:06 AM by Dave Leip »

And here are the two-party swing maps from the interval 1940-44 on:

1940



1944



1948



1952



1956



1960



1964



1968



1972



1976



1980



1984



1988



1992



1996



2000



2004

Don't ask me what's wrong with the 1952-1956 swing map.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2005, 08:38:51 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2010, 10:33:31 AM by Dave Leip »

And here are the two-party "trend" v. the nation maps from 1940-44 on:

1940



1944



1948



1952



1956



1960



1964



1968



1972



1976



1980



1984



1988



1992



1996



2000



2004

I don't know what's with the 1952-1956 maps, but hey.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2005, 01:16:01 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2010, 10:41:56 AM by Dave Leip »

Oh yeah, here's the key to the shadings:

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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2005, 05:59:37 PM »

I can't actually see any of those. Maine seems difficult to predict due to the character it shares with New Hampshire and Vermont; I imagine it will continue voting Democratic but it go narrowly for John McCain if he campaigned there and given the right circumstances.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2005, 09:54:05 PM »
« Edited: December 28, 2005, 11:03:30 PM by Kevinstat »


Are you a paid or "contributing" (with full site access in exchange for a negotiated amount of research toward improving the site, like certifications of the vote for a state for an election or election year etc.) member of this site.  If not, than I don't think you can view either the swing and trend maps made by Dave on the site or the ones made by others such as me for the forum by adjusting the source code for the map image.

Maine seems difficult to predict due to the character it shares with New Hampshire and Vermont;

I'd never thought about that as being the reason, but come to think of it, it makes a lot of sense.  A lot of Mainers do have modern Vermonter-views on social political issues and on the importance of those issues as essential to their "live and let live" way of life, but a lot of Mainers also have "leave me alone" attitude in the anti-taxation and anti-"leftist" regulation sense (it's not just economic issues where the Republicans tend to be more hands off than the Democrats, I'll admit that - gun control is a prime example) that make the state a less than solid Democratic one at the Presidential one and a competitive one at the Congressional and state level, although a Democratic-leaning one at the state legislative level I'd say.  The New Hampshire element in the political psyche of Mainer's seems most prominant and prevalent in the second congressional district, and the Vermont element much less so in that district than in the first.  Those two seeming facts (even if you explain those elements without bringing New Hampshire and Vermont into the equation) largely explain why the second district was closer (less Democratic and more Republican) than the first district in both 2000 and 2004.  As New Hampshire and Vermont each swung Democratic from 2000 and 2004, it's little surprise that Maine, and both it's more New Hampshire-like and Vermont-like congressional districts, swung away from Bush between those two elections.

I imagine it will continue voting Democratic but it go narrowly for John McCain if he campaigned there and given the right circumstances.

I'll agree with that.  I think even he would more likely win without winning any of Maine's electoral votes than win because of or lose dispite winning some or all of Maine's electoral votes, unless Hillary Clinton or (a/another, depending on your point of view) very liberal Democrat was the Democratic nominee in which case the second district could well be as Republican as the nation, although McCain would likely win well over 270 electoral votes in that case anyway.  Maine would most likely swing and 'trend' Republican from 2004 to 2008 however if McCain is the Republican nominee, and I don't think nominating someone like Warner would due much to stop that swing or trend, not that the swing would necessarily be big enough swing to flip the state anyway, but I think it would be big enough at least to make the results like those in 2000 rather than those in 2004.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2005, 03:10:18 PM »

That was really interesting analysis; thank you.
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