New York 2006

[patrick1]

I'd still be shocked if he breaks 40%. Probably around 37% or so.

So Bill Weld is less appealing to the New York electorate than George Bush?

Well Bush wasn't running against Spitzer, plus he had a bit of a 9/11 bounce that's all but gone now (I bet if the 2004 election was held in New York now the result would be along the lines of 2000)

Spitzer is a bald and abrasive whore.  He has successfully conned the media into perpetuating his name.   He is not endearing in large doses.
Hey, one man's opinion though. 

[Smash255]

I'd still be shocked if he breaks 40%. Probably around 37% or so.

So Bill Weld is less appealing to the New York electorate than George Bush?

If Bush was running this year he would be lucky to get 30% in NY.  I would also add while some may think Spitzer is a bit abrasive, I would say he is a helluva lot more appealing than Kerry was

[GOP = Terrorists]

If Bush was running this year he would be lucky to get 30% in NY.  I would also add while some may think Spitzer is a bit abrasive, I would say he is a helluva lot more appealing than Kerry was

[Cubby]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

[WalterMitty]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

[So the Heroes Fall]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

That's kind of a must to be elected in that district.

[WalterMitty]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

That's kind of a must to be elected in that district.

must be a horrible district made up of freedom-haters.

[YRABNNRM]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

That's kind of a must to be elected in that district.

must be a horrible district made up of freedom-haters.

Welcome to New York.

[Smash255]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

In part due to him facing a bunch of poorly funded no names in the past who haven't been able to capitailze on King's weakness's with the district.  King has always been conservative, but he has really jogged to the right over the past five years, also King was once an Indpendent minded Republican ( he voted against Clinton's impeachment, though part of it may have come from the fact that it was an election year & he was in a district that Clinton was very popular in.  However, he has no switched into basically a Bush hard line GOP conservative wing nut, but he has not faced the opponentsto capitalize on it.  However, that might be changing with Nassau Legis Dave Mejias strongly considering a run (most likley will make a decision within the next couple weeks) & he has been urged to run by Israel (NY-02), and Ackerman (NY-05) as well as Suffolk County Chair Schaffer as well as Ill. Rep Emmanuel Rahm (who is chairing the Congressional Races for the house Dems)  Mejias runs, King gets a real strong challenge, something he hasn't had in the past.

[Smash255]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

That's kind of a must to be elected in that district.

He really isn't all that pro labor Union at all.  The AFL-CIO rates him at 27%, compare that to he other 4 LI Congressman (all Democrats) who have ratings of 80% for Israel, 93% for McCarthy & 100% for Ackerman & Bishop..

Anyway to draw this back into the Govenor's topic a bit, even before Spitzer made his intentions about Govenor known, King was rumored to be someone who would run possibly run for Govenor when the talks of Pataki stepping down first started.  He would have absolutley no chance of winning (even without Spitzer running) as his views would just get him demolished state wide, especially considering that the reason he has his seat has little to do with his views, and much more to do with his lack of any real opponent in the past.

[Cubby]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

In part due to him facing a bunch of poorly funded no names in the past who haven't been able to capitailze on King's weakness's with the district.  King has always been conservative, but he has really jogged to the right over the past five years, also King was once an Indpendent minded Republican ( he voted against Clinton's impeachment, though part of it may have come from the fact that it was an election year & he was in a district that Clinton was very popular in.  However, he has no switched into basically a Bush hard line GOP conservative wing nut, but he has not faced the opponentsto capitalize on it.  However, that might be changing with Nassau Legis Dave Mejias strongly considering a run (most likley will make a decision within the next couple weeks) & he has been urged to run by Israel (NY-02), and Ackerman (NY-05) as well as Suffolk County Chair Schaffer as well as Ill. Rep Emmanuel Rahm (who is chairing the Congressional Races for the house Dems)  Mejias runs, King gets a real strong challenge, something he hasn't had in the past.

If Hillary and Spitzer are sure to get elected this year then the next thing for the Dems to accomplish in NY must be to get that idiot King out of the House. I have no problem with RINOS but a Hardline Bush conservative in Long Island? Thats just wrong.

[Smash255]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

In part due to him facing a bunch of poorly funded no names in the past who haven't been able to capitailze on King's weakness's with the district.  King has always been conservative, but he has really jogged to the right over the past five years, also King was once an Indpendent minded Republican ( he voted against Clinton's impeachment, though part of it may have come from the fact that it was an election year & he was in a district that Clinton was very popular in.  However, he has no switched into basically a Bush hard line GOP conservative wing nut, but he has not faced the opponentsto capitalize on it.  However, that might be changing with Nassau Legis Dave Mejias strongly considering a run (most likley will make a decision within the next couple weeks) & he has been urged to run by Israel (NY-02), and Ackerman (NY-05) as well as Suffolk County Chair Schaffer as well as Ill. Rep Emmanuel Rahm (who is chairing the Congressional Races for the house Dems)  Mejias runs, King gets a real strong challenge, something he hasn't had in the past.

If Hillary and Spitzer are sure to get elected this year then the next thing for the Dems to accomplish in NY must be to get that idiot King out of the House. I have no problem with RINOS but a Hardline Bush conservative in Long Island? Thats just wrong.

I agree & Long Island does have a tendency to give Republican Incumbents who have become out of touch the boot.  Name escapes me, but McCarthy's opponent in 96, Grucci (who was Bishop's opponent in 02, Former Nassau county Exec Tom Gullotta would have been demolished bY Suozzi in 01 if he ran again.  Most recentley we kicked to the curb 30 year  Nassau DA Incumbent Republican Dennis Dillion to the curb for Kathleen Rice (and Rice used Dillon's conservative views especially on abortion against him).

As I stated above King did have some helpful re-districting the last time around, he has been helped by low funded no names and 9/11 did turn things around in the district for 04.  However, the Bush 9/11 impact is gone, much like the rest of Long Island, Bush has become increasingly unpopular in the district, and this is at a time when King has become more conservative & gravitates more & more to Bush & becomes more & more of a loyal Bush Republican.  A well known, popular, well funded opponent could really make this a very interesting race.  While Tom Suozzi is my first choice he seems to have his eyes set on a damn near impossible Primary match against Spitzer, Dave Mejias (who actually represents my LD) seems to becoming more & more a likely candidate to run against King.  That off the bat makes this BY FAR the toughest race King would has had if Mejias indeed decides to run.  I don't know how good Mejias's chances would be, but the race would be quite competitive if he runs. 

By the way I do find it quite interesting to say the least that King, who has teneded to have a pro-immigration voting record is now sponsoring a very tough anti-immigration bill during a time when his most likely candidate is  hispanic (Mejias is from Cuban Descent)

[© Tweed the Younger]

Siena College Poll

Spitzer 55%
Golisano 29%

Spitzer 60%
Weld 17%

http://www.siena.edu/sri/results/2006/06_Jan_NYPoll.htm

It's gonna be a dog-fight folks.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Fred Dicker of the New York Post said on "NY Week in Review" that Weld would be lucky to get 25%. What a joke.

He may be polling like that now but once the election gets going it will be in the 40's, same with Golisano.

I wonder if a Weld V. Spitzer race could maybe revive the hibernating NY Conservative Party? 

[ag]

Fred Dicker of the New York Post said on "NY Week in Review" that Weld would be lucky to get 25%. What a joke.

He may be polling like that now but once the election gets going it will be in the 40's, same with Golisano.

I wonder if a Weld V. Spitzer race could maybe revive the hibernating NY Conservative Party? 

It will - in fact, the Conservatives are quite active, they aren't hibernating. While they won't win the election, they might actually push Weld to the third spot.

[YRABNNRM]

they might actually push Weld to the third spot.

Why would more people vote for a conservative nutcase than a moderate in New York?

Sure it could be possible that some Republican votes wouldn't see a difference between Weld or Spitzer(but they would obviously blind) but the NYCon would nominate some no-name hack that wouldn't garner any attention and only hurt the cause(See: Senate 2004)

[Frodo]

Billionaire Golisano skips N.Y. gov. race

By MARC HUMBERT
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Billionaire B. Thomas Golisano said Tuesday he will not make a fourth run for governor of New York, this time as a Republican, ending months of speculation.

Golisano, 64, had run unsuccessfully for governor in 1994, 1998 and 2002 as the candidate of the Independence Party. He switched to the GOP in October and was seriously considering running for its nomination.

"I have made my decision based upon personal and professional reasons," the Rochester-based businessman and owner of the Buffalo Sabres hockey team said in a statement. He said he would stay active in business, philanthropic interests and "promoting responsible government."

Polls had shown Golisano leading the GOP field. His decision leaves former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso as the front-runners for the party's nomination.

source

[ag]

they might actually push Weld to the third spot.

Why would more people vote for a conservative nutcase than a moderate in New York?

Sure it could be possible that some Republican votes wouldn't see a difference between Weld or Spitzer(but they would obviously blind) but the NYCon would nominate some no-name hack that wouldn't garner any attention and only hurt the cause(See: Senate 2004)

This has happened in the past (Conservative coming second behind a Dem) - and once Conservatives even managed to elect a senator. There are real (small "c") conservatives in New York, who would not see much of a difference between the Dem and Weld. The problem for Weld, he'd be squeezed between Spitzer and the Conservative - nothing wrong about him, but most Dems would go for Spitzer and most Reps won't vote for Weld, given a righg Conservative candidate.

[YRABNNRM]

You have to remember that this is New York 2006. It's changed alot, no way in hell could a Conservative candidate win a senate seat and not just because he'd be a conservative but because the candidate, as I said before, would be a no name hack.

The NYGOP may be going down the toilet but the NYConservative Party has been in the sewers for awhile now.

[ag]

You have to remember that this is New York 2006. It's changed alot, no way in hell could a Conservative candidate win a senate seat and not just because he'd be a conservative but because the candidate, as I said before, would be a no name hack.

The NYGOP may be going down the toilet but the NYConservative Party has been in the sewers for awhile now.

I agree with the first part - there is no way whatsoever a Conservative would win the election in New York in 2006 (even if he is not a no-name hack).  However, I wouldn't be surprised if enough Republicans aren't willing to vote for Weld to give the Conservatives a shot at the second place. Weld's appeal is to moderate Democrats and Republicans, and the Republican core in the state is not particularly moderate (at least, not moderate enough to vote for a pro-abortion, pro-gay-marriage Massachussets liberal).

Now, don't get me wrong - Weld was a good governor in Mass., and he'd likely be a good governor in New York.  If a month before the election Spitzer eats little children on TV (or collapses in another fashion), he'd win in a landslide over any Conservative. I am confident that  3/4 of the state's population would by far prefer Weld over any Conservative. The problem is that they will, mostly, vote Dem, so it is not unconceivable that the final outcome is something like Dem 55%, Con 25% and Rep 20%.

Remember, the key advantage of the second party over the third party in the FPTP system is negated when the electoral result is viewed as predetermined. As far a "small c" conservative in NY is concerned, his vote can't affect the outcome whether he votes Rep or Con, so he might as well vote his preferred option.  Add to this a slight wiff of scandal/incompetence on the college front (however unfair), and Cons do have a chance for the second spot.

[nick]

Can he break Schumer's 75%

Marist College

NEW YORK GOVERNOR
Eliot Spitzer 68%
John Faso 18%

Eliot Spitzer 66%
William Weld 19%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, this could rival Obamas pickup of a Senate seat in 2004 for biggest swing since previous election.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Wow, this could rival Obamas pickup of a Senate seat in 2004 for biggest swing since previous election.

No, only 25% of NYers know who Weld is, and once they get to know him a decent amount will like him (because he's a good man and likeable).  He isn't a joke like Keyes was, so he should get around 35% by November.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Could this happen in the NY gubernatorial election, where two strong liberal candidates split the liberal vote, and a conservative squeaks through?

A strong liberal Democrat, Spitzer                 33%
A strong liberal Republican, Weld                  33%
A strong Conservative Party candidate         34%

Just speculating.

Any comments?

[YRABNNRM]

No. People wanting a liberal candidate in NY would never vote for a GOP candidate as long as there is a liberal Democratic candidate, unless a major scandal errupts in my view atleast.