Gay marriage map

[Grad Students are the Worst]

2006: Colorado passes gay marriage ban


Data here

Worst performances versus Bush
Jackson -27.7
Rio Blanco -12.0%
Kiowa -8.5%
Routt -8.2%
Custer -7.7%

Best performances versus Bush
Costilla +97.5%
Conejos +56.1%
Las Animas +43.4%
Pueblo +43.2%
Denver +28.6%

If anyone can explain to me why Jackson County voted like this:

President - 76% Bush
Domestic partnerships - 76% no
Gay marriage ban - 55% yes

...I'd be interested in hearing it.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

This is kind of neat: the user-made Colorado maps are on the first page for a Google result for Colorado election results.

Anyway...

2000: Oregon narrowly avoids banning ballroom dancing classes, or whatever a ban on encouraging homosexuality in public schools would do


Data here.  An interesting examination of how attitudes about homosexuality aren't entirely partisan line, and how the inland west isn't nearly as conservative Christian as many people assume based on its Republicanness.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Oregon: Difference between Measure 9 performance and 2000 Bush performance
Grant -19.2%
Wallowa -18.9%
Sherman -16.3%
Gilliam -15.6%
Union -14.5%
Harney -12.9%
Lake -12.2%
Benton -11.6%
Baker -9.8%
Malheur -7.6%
Klamath -7.4%
Wheeler -6.8%
Deschutes -5.6%
Morrow -5.5%
Washington -5.0%
Umatilla -4.4%
Jackson -3.6%
Polk -1.0%
Douglas -0.3%
Yamhill -0.2%
Crook +0.5%
Jefferson +0.5%
Curry +2.0%
Coos +2.0%
Wasco +2.1%
Marion +2.3%
Clackamas +2.7%
Josephine +2.9%
Linn +3.2%
Clatsop +4.7%
Lane +4.8%
Tillamook +6.2%
Hood River +6.6%
Lincoln +7.2%
Multnomah +16.2%
Columbia +21.7%

Columbia County makes sense - it's a working-class area with socially conservative, economically liberal leans.  What's interesting is that this measure performed relatively better in areas that hardly seem to have those sort of leans (liberal Multnomah, liberal touristy Lincoln and Hood River) - the only explanation I can offer there is old-school, elderly Democrats (especially in Lincoln) and Hispanics (Hood River).  And the measures tend to perform relatively better than Dems in ultra-liberal areas and relatively worse than Republicans in ultra-conservative ones.

What really surprised me is how poorly it performed in the Columbia River counties, which have a Democratic union(?) tradition.  They were solidly Republican by 2000.  Another thing that I just can't explain.

[Sibboleth]

How come Coos county was that close?

Btw, could you explain the patterns in this map?

[Colin]

How come Coos county was that close?

Btw, could you explain the patterns in this map?

What map is that anyway?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

How come Coos county was that close?

Coos has a solid economically liberal union base, but it's not socially conservative.  The socially conservative union base has since become Republican.  It's a moderate county.  It's pretty much a standard 55% Republican, 45% Democratic county at this point.  It's lost the interestingness that came from being a union county.

Btw, could you explain the patterns in this map?

I might be able to, if I knew what it was a map of. 

[Sibboleth]

Referendum on exempting death sentences from protections to do with cruel and vindictive punishment.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Referendum on exempting death sentences from protections to do with cruel and vindictive punishment.

Ohhh, I remember talking to Bob about this.

No - I have NO idea.  It's among the weirdest maps I've ever seen.  Malheur County is literally the last county in Oregon I would have expected to vote no.  The single most confusing election result I've ever seen.

[Rob]

1992's infamous Measure 9:



Would have amended the state Constitution to read:

All governments in Oregon may not use their monies or properties to promote, encourage or facilitate homosexuality, pedophilia, sadism or masochism. All levels of government, including public education systems, must assist in setting a standard for Oregon's youth which recognizes that these behaviors are abnormal, wrong, unnatural and perverse and they are to be discouraged and avoided.

It lost 56-44.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Bob, two quick questions:

1. Where did you get those county results?  (I can do a quick data upload so we can see sexy percentages and stuff)

2. Anything you can tell me about why the Columbia River counties are so Republican if they aren't exactly fully right-winged on either social or economic issues?  More of an institiutional Republican shift, kind of like in Coos County?

I don't know much about them, but in my summer driving tour (after which I'll have been to every county in the state except for San Juan), I'll be right across the stateline.  It doesn't seem to share much in common with our side of the River.

[Rob]

Where did you get those county results?  (I can do a quick data upload so we can see sexy percentages and stuff)

From a print source. I don't have access to the data at the moment.

Anything you can tell me about why the Columbia River counties are so Republican if they aren't exactly fully right-winged on either social or economic issues?

Environmental issues probably play a big role.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Environmental issues probably play a big role.

Hmm, interesting.  Logging areas?  I've always wondered if areas that are hyper-Republican due to anti-environmentalism (like Forks, WA) are also very socially conservative.  I guess it isn't necessarily so.

[nclib]

Looks like about half the states have had a statewide referendum on gay marriage. I made a list earlier this thread about the most gay friendly county in each state. Does anyone want to take a stab at guessing for the other states, what would be each state's best county for opposing gay marriage bans?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Looks like about half the states have had a statewide referendum on gay marriage. I made a list earlier this thread about the most gay friendly county in each state. Does anyone want to take a stab at guessing for the other states, what would be each state's best county for opposing gay marriage bans?

My guesses:

AL: Who knows...probably one of the Kerry counties, though, if MS is an indicator
CT: New Haven, maybe?  Hartford?
DE: New Castle
FL: Broward?
IA: Johnson?
IL: Cook, obviously
IN: Monroe
ME: Cumberland
MA: Berkshire
MN: Ramsey
NE: Already voted in 2000, and Douglas
NH: Probably Cheshire
NJ: Essex, maybe Hudson
NM: Taos, maybe Santa Fe
NC: Durham?
PA: Philadelphia
RI: Providence
VT: Windham
WA: San Juan
WV: No real idea
WY: Teton, obviously

[nclib]

Looks like about half the states have had a statewide referendum on gay marriage. I made a list earlier this thread about the most gay friendly county in each state. Does anyone want to take a stab at guessing for the other states, what would be each state's best county for opposing gay marriage bans?

NE: Already voted in 2000, and Douglas

I missed that. Do you have a link to the results or map?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Looks like about half the states have had a statewide referendum on gay marriage. I made a list earlier this thread about the most gay friendly county in each state. Does anyone want to take a stab at guessing for the other states, what would be each state's best county for opposing gay marriage bans?

NE: Already voted in 2000, and Douglas

I missed that. Do you have a link to the results or map?

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&off=61&elect=0&fips=31&f=0

It was later overturned.

[nclib]

I compared the results of these bans with the results of the Kerry/Bush election. I calculated the difference between ban support and Bush support, using large counties (over 100,000 votes in the 2004 Pres. election). I've broken it down by state:

Ban - Bush

Virginia
Prince Wm.   Bush   9
Fairfax   Kerry   0
Loudoun   Bush   -2
Va. Beach   Bush   -2
Henrico   Bush   -3
Chesterfield   Bush   -3

Louisiana      
Orleans   Kerry   33
Caddo   Bush   30
E. Baton Rouge   Bush   20
Jefferson   Bush   11
St. Tammany   Bush   2

Nevada      
Clark   Kerry   21
Washoe   Bush   9

Wisconsin      
Milwaukee   Kerry   18
Racine   Bush   12
Brown   Bush   7
Waukesha   Bush   1
Dane   Kerry   0

Missouri      
City of St. Louis   Kerry   28
St. Louis County   Kerry   21
Jackson   Kerry   19.5
St. Charles   Bush   13
Greene   Bush   10

Nebraska      
Lancaster   Bush   5
Douglas   Bush   1

California      
Los Angeles   Kerry   23
Solano   Kerry   23
San Mateo   Kerry   22
Alameda   Kerry   21
Contra Costa   Kerry   20
San Joaquin   Bush   20
San Bernardino   Bush   19.5
Santa Clara   Kerry   19
Fresno   Bush   19
Monterey   Kerry   18
San Francisco   Kerry   17
Santa Cruz   Kerry   16
Sonoma   Kerry   16
Stanislaus   Bush   16
Riverside   Bush   15
Kern   Bush   14
Sacramento   Kerry   13
Ventura   Bush   13
Marin   Kerry   12
Santa Barbara   Kerry   12
San Diego   Bush   10.5
San Luis Obispo   Bush   9
Orange   Bush   9
Placer   Bush   6

Colorado      
Adams   Kerry   13
Denver   Kerry   9
Arapahoe   Bush   5
Jefferson   Bush   3
Boulder   Kerry   1
Larimer   Bush   0
El Paso   Bush   -1
Douglas   Bush   -5

Tennessee      
Shelby   Kerry   38
Davidson   Kerry   23
Hamilton   Bush   23
Knox   Bush   9

Oklahoma      
Oklahoma   Bush   7
Tulsa   Bush   7

Texas      
Hidalgo   Kerry   37
Fort Bend   Bush   26
El Paso   Kerry   25
Nueces   Bush   18
Harris   Bush   17
Galveston   Bush   17
Dallas   Bush   16
Tarrant   Bush   15
Bexar   Bush   14
Montgomery   Bush   8
Williamson   Bush   5
Denton   Bush   5
Collin   Bush   3
Travis   Kerry   -2

Ohio      
Mahoning   Kerry   26
Trumbull   Kerry   24
Cuyahoga   Kerry   20
Lucas   Kerry   18
Lorain   Kerry   16
Summit   Kerry   15
Stark   Kerry   15
Montgomery   Kerry   9
Franklin   Kerry   7
Lake   Bush   7
Hamilton   Bush   3
Butler   Bush   2

Idaho      
Ada   Bush   -9

Oregon      
Multnomah   Kerry   13
Lane   Kerry   10
Clackamas   Bush   10
Marion   Bush   10
Washington   Kerry   8
Jackson   Bush   7

Utah      
Utah   Bush   -4
Salt Lake   Bush   -6
Davis   Bush   -8

Michigan      
Wayne   Kerry   25
Genesee   Kerry   19
Saginaw   Kerry   13
Macomb   Bush   11
Washtenaw   Kerry   6
Ingham   Kerry   6
Kalamazoo   Kerry   6
Kent   Bush   4
Oakland   Kerry   3
Ottawa   Bush   1

Arizona      
Pima   Kerry   -5
Maricopa   Bush   -9

Kansas      
Sedgwick   Bush   8
Johnson   Bush   -1


Note: Mississippi, Montana, and the Dakotas don't have any counties with over 100,000 votes. Also, I don't have the maps for Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.

[nclib]

Bump for comparison to the Democratic primary results. It appears the vast majority of counties that voted against a ban on gay marriage, are voting for Obama.

[nclib]

bump

It looks like Obama picked a lot of the pro-gay counties that voted for Bush:

Maricopa, AZ - McCain
Ouray, CO - Obama
Latah, ID - Obama
Bennett, SD - McCain
Brookings, SD - Obama
Custer, SD - McCain
Fall River, SD - McCain
Hughes, SD - McCain
Kingsbury, SD - McCain
Lawrence, SD - McCain
Lyman, SD - McCain
Marshall, SD - Obama
Stanley, SD - McCain
Grand, UT - Obama
Summit, UT - Obama

-------

Can anyone explain those SD counties?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gap between no and Obama in California. Smaller gaps seemed to be in low population counties, where the megachurches aren't so active. The Mormons in Mono like gay marriage.

Imperial 32.0
Merced 24.2
San Joaquin 20.0
Solano 19.4
Los Angeles 19.3
Fresno 19.0
San Bernardino 18.6
Stanislaus 17.8
Alameda 16.8
Tulare 16.6
Monterey 16.6
Madera 15.9
Kings 15.8
Kern 15.5
San Benito 15.3
Riverside 15.0
Santa Clara 13.7
Contra Costa 12.6
Sacramento 12.4
San Mateo 11.7
Colusa 11.6
Sutter 11.2
Lake 10.2
Napa 9.6
Tehama 9.5
Yuba 9.1
San Francisco 9.0
Yolo 8.4
Ventura 8.2
San Diego 8.0
Sonoma 7.2
Trinity 7.0
Santa Barbara 6.8
Glenn 6.5
Mendocino 6.4
Santa Cruz 6.2
Butte 6.0
Shasta 5.7
Amador 5.6
Del Norte 5.5
Orange 5.4
Calaveras 5.3
Tuolumne 5.1
Alpine 4.6
Mariposa 4.6
Inyo 4.5
Modoc 4.0
Siskiyou 3.3
Placer 3.2
Marin 2.9
Lassen 2.8
Plumas 2.8
San Luis Obispo 2.5
Humboldt 2.2
El Dorado 2.0
Nevada 1.6
Sierra 1.6
Mono -0.2

[Grad Students are the Worst]

South Dakota's (like Arizona's) banned domestic partnerships and civil unions.  Those kind of bans just aren't really viable outside of conservative states anymore.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

South Dakota's (like Arizona's) banned domestic partnerships and civil unions.  Those kind of bans just aren't really viable outside of conservative states anymore.

     Explains how it failed in so many McCain counties in South Dakota.

[nclib]

Gap between Obama and 'no' in Florida


Gadsden   43.57%
Madison   31.94%
Osceola   27.24%
Hamilton   26.20%
Jefferson   24.98%
Hendry   24.89%
Glades   20.29%
St. Lucie   20.13%
DeSoto   20.03%
Jackson   19.80%
Orange   19.25%
Broward   19.08%
Hardee   18.83%
Polk   18.51%
Duval   17.25%
Highlands   17.04%
Leon   16.76%
Okeechobee   16.62%
Putnam   15.60%
Miami-Dade   15.52%
Taylor   14.87%
Marion   13.91%
Hernando   13.87%
Flagler   13.62%
Volusia   13.38%
Calhoun   12.95%
Escambia   12.69%
Lake   12.64%
Palm Beach   12.63%
Levy   12.28%
Hillsborough   12.18%
Bradford   11.86%
Suwannee   11.41%
Washington   11.17%
Alachua   11.17%
Charlotte   11.15%
Union   10.99%
Gulf   10.74%
Dixie   10.22%
Liberty   10.02%
Pasco   9.52%
Sumter   9.47%
Lee   8.97%
Citrus   8.90%
Seminole   8.47%
Wakulla   7.83%
Columbia   7.71%
Baker   7.64%
Pinellas   7.64%
Manatee   7.62%
Brevard   7.62%
Indian River   7.56%
Franklin   7.54%
Lafayette   7.43%
Gilchrist   7.24%
Holmes   6.17%
Sarasota   5.99%
Martin   5.91%
Bay   3.99%
Clay   3.10%
Nassau   3.03%
Okaloosa   1.84%
Walton   1.61%
Santa Rosa   1.37%
Collier   1.07%
Monroe   -0.31%
St. Johns   -1.22%

-------

Pretty expected, though surprised to see some panhandle counties towards the bottom.

[bgwah]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

[realisticidealist]

Tried updating the map with the latest numbers... Am I missing anything?

Yes, Alabama.