Future Senators

[Adlai Stevenson]

Hey this is my first post. Who do you expect to become a Senator eventually? I have some predictions -

Arizona.
If John McCain is elected President in 2008, a possibility could well be Governor Janet Napolitano, if she decides to complete her term as Governor though, Attorney General Terry Goddard would be the leading Democrat in a race.

Kansas.
We know that Sam Brownback has pledged to retire to run for President in 2008. My guess is that Governor Kathleen Sebelius would appoint herself to his seat, she would also have a fair chance of holding it in the election.

Michigan.
Carl Levin could well retire in 2008, if he does so then the most likely bet appears to be Representative Candice Miller running for his seat. Miller is broadly electable and considered so by the statewide GOP, who attempted to get her to run against Debbie Stabenow in 2006.

New Mexico
If, like Levin, Senator Pete Domenici retires in 2008, Representative Tom Udall could well be a likely candidate to run for the Democrats; another possibility might be Patricia Madrid, currently State Attorney General and a candidate against Heather Wilson in 2006.

Pennsylvania.
If Arlen Specter dies or retires, I think Governor Rendell would appoint Barbara Hafer to the seat. This could happen before 2010.

[TheresNoMoney]

Tom Allen-congressman from Maine

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan-  Candice Miller in 2008 when Levin retires

[Frodo]

Colorado -if Senator Wayne Allard retires in 2008, as is rumored, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is the favorite to take his place in the Senate, especially given the recent Democratic tilt the state has taken lately with Democrats taking over the legislature, and Ken Salazar taking retiring Sen. Ben NightHorse Campbell's seat. 

Virginia -if Senator John Warner retires in 2008 (not likely, but a possibility, given his age), Rep. Tom Davis -a moderately conservative Republican- is reputed to be a favorite to replace him in the Senate.

[GOP = Terrorists]

When Richard Blumenthal (CT-AG) runs for Senate the seat is his.   Though if 2006 ends up being a tough three way race you never know what can happen. =)

[True Democrat]

Kansas.
We know that Sam Brownback has pledged to retire to run for President in 2008. My guess is that Governor Kathleen Sebelius would appoint herself to his seat, she would also have a fair chance of holding it in the election.

Sebelius wouldn't appoint herself to the seat.  She'd probably appoint someone to fill the seat for her or something like that.  Kind of like Benjamin Smith who held JFK's seat until Ted could get elected.

[Galactic Overlord]

Louisiana- Bobby Jindal, but the question is, to which Senate seat?  If Senator Vitter runs for governor in 2007 and wins, he may appoint Bobby to take his spot.  If not, there is a chance that he could challenge Landrieu, and given that she is missing a sizable amount of her New Orleans base, it'll be tougher than ever for her to win.

Virginia- Mark Warner.  That is, assuming he is not nominated to run for president.  If John Warner steps down in 2008, he would run for the open seat, and it would be a competitive race, but one that he might possess an edge in.  If George Allen runs, and wins the presidency, Governor Kaine would appoint him to to the Senate.

Florida- Connie Mack IV.  Let's face it, famous scion of a popular politician.  It worked for Mark Pryor, it may work for Bob Casey, and assuming Harris can't knock off Nelson, Mack will be the guy next time.

Mississippi- Chip Pickering.  Whether it's Cochran or Lott that steps down, Pickering will run, and I think he'll win.

New Hampshire- John Lynch.  Democrats will give him the sun, the moon, and the stars to run against John Sununu in 2008.  Sununu already beat a popular NH governor in 2002, but even this may be a tall order for him.

Nevada- Jon Porter.  Will probably run against Harry Reid in 2012.  I doubt Reid can run successfully on his (by then) lengthy record as the Democratic leader and will end up sharing Daschle's fate.

[Alcon]

Washington - We probably won't have a new Senator for a while, but my best guess would be Congressman Brian Baird, who wins the solidly conservative Lewis County.

[Sarnstrom]

Wisconsin - Ron Kind, assuming that Herb Kohl retires in 2012. The election will likely pit Ron Kind against Paul Ryan.

Minnesota - Betty McCollum, she run against Norm Coleman in 2008 and she'll probably win.

[TheresNoMoney]

We know that Sam Brownback has pledged to retire to run for President in 2008.

No, he pledged to retire when his term is up in 2010. I think there is a good chance Sebelius could run when he retires that year, though. She will also be concluding her second term (if she happens to be re-elected).

[TheresNoMoney]

Louisiana- Bobby Jindal, but the question is, to which Senate seat?

I think Jindal has his sights on the governor's seat. I've read that he is expected to run in 2007.

Virginia- Mark Warner.  That is, assuming he is not nominated to run for president.

I don't think he has any interest in the Senate. If he isn't elected president in 2008, I think he'll run for governor again.  

New Hampshire- John Lynch.  Democrats will give him the sun, the moon, and the stars to run against John Sununu in 2008.

Us Democrats here in NH are hoping that he'll run in 2008, but there are no guarantees. I have no idea if he has any interest in going to Washington. He is likely the only Democrat that could beat Sununu. The Democratic bench in this state is very weak.

Nevada- Jon Porter.  Will probably run against Harry Reid in 2012.  I doubt Reid can run successfully on his (by then) lengthy record as the Democratic leader and will end up sharing Daschle's fate.

Oh come on, Reid will be fine if he decides to run again. Nevada is trending blue and is the fastest growing state in the country. It will likely vote for the Democrat in 2008. Southern Nevada (strongly Democratic) is gaining thousands of new residents each month and that bodes very well for Democrats.

Nevada is no South Dakota.

[bullmoose88]

Honestly, I wouldn't put it past rendell to appoint himself/run for Specter's seat...he'd have a good shot at holding/winning it too. Not a lock though.

[TeePee4Prez]

Honestly, I wouldn't put it past rendell to appoint himself/run for Specter's seat...he'd have a good shot at holding/winning it too. Not a lock though.

ED RENDELL FOR SENATE IN '10!!!!  Install Hafer to keep the seat warm if Specter were to keel over.

[PBrunsel]

Iowa won't have chnages for a while. In fact, I bet that Grassley and Harkin will keep their seats until they die.

[TheresNoMoney]

Minnesota - Betty McCollum, she run against Norm Coleman in 2008 and she'll probably win.

Norm Coleman is my 2nd most hated Republican Senator behind Rick Santorum, and the Minnesota DFL needs to make sure he loses in 2008.

[Kevinstat]

Tom Allen-congressman from Maine

He certainly seems to want to be a U.S. Senator (what legislator below U.S. Senator doesn't?), but I'm not sure he will get a good chance at the office before the still has the appeal and energy for an effective Senate run.  He's 60 now (almost two years older than Senator Snowe, 7 2/3 years older than Senator Collins and almost ten years older (about 9 3/4 actually) than Michaud and Baldacci) and will be 67 come 2012 when Snowe's seat would be up for election for the first time after next year's "election."  Collins will likely run for re-election in 2008, and she has had approval ratings above those of Olympia Snowe in some polls, although she does seem to with her party slightly more than does Snowe and she only won with 58% of the vote last time as compared to Snowe's 69% in 2000.  The Democrats actually somewhat targeted Collins in that election though and fielded an attractive and energeitic if not very moderate candidate.

Allen has visited the second district quite a bit over the years, and while he might prefer being a Senator, he may have his sights on the Blaine House (Maine's Governor's Mansion) in 2010, when it would be an open seat if Baldacci wins reelection next year.  That is by no means certain (Baldacci has very poor poll numbers right now), but even if the Republicans do capture the govenorship in 2006 I doubt the new Governor would be safe in 2010.  There's two much of a "natural" Democratic voter base (what do I mean by that?  I'm not sure, but I think it's true) in Maine for that happen I think.  Allen ran for Governor in 1994, losing to 1979-87 Governor, 1987-91 Congressman and 1990 nominee Joe Brennan who went on to lose a second time in November (to Angus King) and a third time in November 1996 (to Susan Collins, who had been won a crowded GOP primary for Governor in 1994 but suffered a massive defection of Republican voters to King and finished a distant third, but won the race to succeed Senator Cohen in 1996 as her primary opponents destroyed each other and Brennan basically destroyed himself by being Joe Brennan.  Allen defeated incumbent Congressman Jim Longley Jr. that year (1996), and the Maine political scene was pretty dull from then until after the 2000 election and returned to dulldom after the 2002 election which wasn't as exiting as the 1994 or 1996 elections itself.  The 2010 election cycle could be at least as the 2002 cycle if the governorship is open and Allen or Michaud vacates his seat that year to run for Governor or otherwise.  If Chandler Woodcock or another Republican ousts Baldacci next year and is reelected in 2010, however, the office would next be open at the same time as Susan Collins' Senate seat (assuming she runs for and wins a third term in 2008) was next up for election, and if she stepped down that year 2014 could be another 1994.

I hope you've enjoyed reading this lengthy post.  I've enjoyed writing it.  I know I got way off topic, but hopefully you learned something interesting from it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[7,052,770]

Mississippi--Mike Moore

[TheresNoMoney]

He certainly seems to want to be a U.S. Senator (what legislator below U.S. Senator doesn't?), but I'm not sure he will get a good chance at the office before the still has the appeal and energy for an effective Senate run.  He's 60 now (almost two years older than Senator Snowe, 7 2/3 years older than Senator Collins and almost ten years older (about 9 3/4 actually) than Michaud and Baldacci) and will be 67 come 2012 when Snowe's seat would be up for election for the first time after next year's "election."  Collins will likely run for re-election in 2008

Collins has repeatedly pledged to only serve two terms. She did this both in 1996 and in 2002. Most expect that she will keep her promise and not run in 2008, and Tom Allen would be the frontrunner to replace her.

I hope you've enjoyed reading this lengthy post.  I've enjoyed writing it.  I know I got way off topic, but hopefully you learned something interesting from it.

Great post. It's good to see a Democrat from Maine on here! I thought I was the only poster on this board from NH, VT, or ME.

[Kevinstat]

Great to be here, Sconnie.  I've posted to this forum since way back in 2001 when it was another forum on this site (Dave redid the forum in 2003 IIRC), but I'm not very active and tend to post only in the Gubernatorial, Congressional or International Elections boards or some of the more data geek threads in other boards.  I often read in threads that I don't end up posting in, but even there my focus is centered in the second category of boards with focus also in some boards in the first and Q&A categories and an occasional glance elsewhere.  There are probably boards, like some of the "child boards" on this site but perhaps one of the comparatively newer non-child boards as well, that I have never even visited.

[Kevinstat]

Oh yeah, thanks for pointing out how clear Collins has made her intention not to run for reelection in 2008, Scoonie.  In that case I would agree that Allen at present seems like the frontrunner in that race.  (Who says there can't be frontrunners in races that are an election cycle away and aren't Presidential races?)

[Galactic Overlord]

Louisiana- Bobby Jindal, but the question is, to which Senate seat?

I think Jindal has his sights on the governor's seat. I've read that he is expected to run in 2007.

He may, but I've heard the same about Senator Vitter.  Both of them would not run at the same time, and I think Bobby would defer to the senator if he wanted to run.

Virginia- Mark Warner.  That is, assuming he is not nominated to run for president.

I don't think he has any interest in the Senate. If he isn't elected president in 2008, I think he'll run for governor again. 

Virginia law allows that?  Interesting.  But then again, Mark Warner did run against John Warner in 1996, and I think the Democrats would work hard to persuade him.

New Hampshire- John Lynch.  Democrats will give him the sun, the moon, and the stars to run against John Sununu in 2008.

Us Democrats here in NH are hoping that he'll run in 2008, but there are no guarantees. I have no idea if he has any interest in going to Washington. He is likely the only Democrat that could beat Sununu. The Democratic bench in this state is very weak.

I don't think NH has term limits, so he could have the job for quite a long time.  Governing a state is probably more fulfilling than being one out of a hundred in a legislative body.  But no doubt, Democrats will push him hard to run.  I have to admit, I didn't even think Sununu was going to win the first time.

Nevada- Jon Porter.  Will probably run against Harry Reid in 2012.  I doubt Reid can run successfully on his (by then) lengthy record as the Democratic leader and will end up sharing Daschle's fate.

Oh come on, Reid will be fine if he decides to run again. Nevada is trending blue and is the fastest growing state in the country. It will likely vote for the Democrat in 2008. Southern Nevada (strongly Democratic) is gaining thousands of new residents each month and that bodes very well for Democrats.

Nevada is no South Dakota.

One word: 1998.  Reid barely scraped by then-Rep. John Ensign by a little over 400 votes.  Now his profile is even bigger. (You have to admit that he never should have said "We killed the Patriot Act.")  He won big in 2004 because the Republicans couldn't get Rep. Jim Gibbons to run against him.  Nevada is also filling up with young, middle class families in the Las Vegas area that have no loyalty to Reid, so I'd dispute that they are necessarily "blue state" voters.  They could very well be Californians that are tired of the state's high taxes and are seeking better pastures.

[GOP = Terrorists]

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No only if you're from a state in the deep south will it be seen as a negative by people who can't count past their fingers and toes.  Mark my words. =)

[MarkWarner08]

Whoever beats Sen. Gordon Smith in '08. Smith has palyed his moderate chrade for 2 years and Oregon voters haven't been swayed. Sadly, despite my state's recent Democratic leanings, we lack a strong opponent to Smith. The State GOP is in shambles and barely challenged any of the Democrats' sitting officholders in 2004.

I'd say David Wu, if the "pillow incident" doesn't come back to haunt him.

From a fellow newbie, welcome!

[nini2287]

Baldacci has very poor poll numbers right now

How come his approval ratings are so low?  I haven't been able to figure it out.  Are there any credible Republicans or Democratic primary challengers lined up?

Whoever beats Sen. Gordon Smith in '08. Smith has palyed his moderate chrade for 2 years and Oregon voters haven't been swayed. Sadly, despite my state's recent Democratic leanings, we lack a strong opponent to Smith. The State GOP is in shambles and barely challenged any of the Democrats' sitting officholders in 2004.

How come you think Smith is so vulnerable?  His approval ratings seem fairly high for a Republican from Oregon.  Just curious - it seems like you strongly dislike Smith, how come?  He is one of my 5 favorite Republican Senators.

As for PA, I think if Specter dies/retires, Hafer is almost definitely going to be Rendell's appointment.  However, if Rendell loses in 2006, I think Swann/Scranton will probably appoint Rep. Melissa Hart to the seat, and she'd probably run anyway in 2010 against possibly Rendell (if there's a Dem in the White House and he's not planning a Presidential run), Barbara Hafer or Rep. Allyson Schwartz.  I think the 2010 governor contest will come down to Sen. Bob Casey vs. Fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey.  If Casey wins the governorship, I think whoever's not in the Senate at the time - Schwartz or Hafer or possibly Rep. Tim Holden, though I doubt he'd give away the safe house seat.

Oh, also, Scoonie, how come you dislike Norm Coleman so much, he doesn't seem that bad when compared to some of the  others in the Senate.

[Moooooo]

Maryland - Ben Cardin replaces Paul Sarbanes in 2006.  Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown replaces Sen. Mikulski in 2010.