Why did Ted Kennedy challenge Carter in 1980?

[dazzleman]

Boss, your chart shows my memory was perfect.  Carter was ahead earlier in the year, Reagan took the lead in the summer, it tightened up after Labor Day, and Reagan broke ahead at the very end.  Did you read my post before you rushed to disagree with me?

You actually remember all this stuff? For some reason I always had you down as being slightly younger, like in your late 20s... but it's always good to have someone who experienced all this stuff first-hand.

Thanks for the compliment, man.  I wish I were still in my late 20s, but I'm 43.

This was the first election I really followed.  I had followed the 1976 election somewhat, but I was too young to really be aware of the larger issues at that time.  But I have to say, I don't think I ever followed an election as closely as I did in 1980.

I desperately wanted Carter to lose because I thought he was running the country into the ground.  I haven't changed my mind, though it turns out that a few things Carter did unintentionally or inadvertently had a good impact that was not intended by him.

This was also the first election I voted in.  Very interesting and seminal election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's really eerie are the similarities between Carter-Reagan and Hoover-FDR.  Both  Carter and Hoover were heavily trounced one term presidents who introduced new thinking into government that their successor expanded upon and was popular for.  Of course both Reagan and FDR profited politically from both the groundwork of their predecessor and the examples provided of how to not go about doing certain things.

[J. J.]

One thing not shown on the chart was Carter prior to the "hostage crisis."  Carter was much weaker, but used it to rally the country.

The "October Surprise," that didn't happen, would have been Carter getting the hostages released in late October.

Interestingly, prior to the Wisconsin  Democratic Primary, which was close, the White House announced that there would be "big news" about the hostage crisis.  After Carter defeated Kennedy, there was no "big news."

[dazzleman]

One thing not shown on the chart was Carter prior to the "hostage crisis."  Carter was much weaker, but used it to rally the country.

The "October Surprise," that didn't happen, would have been Carter getting the hostages released in late October.

Interestingly, prior to the Wisconsin  Democratic Primary, which was close, the White House announced that there would be "big news" about the hostage crisis.  After Carter defeated Kennedy, there was no "big news."

Carter used the hostage crisis to rally the country, and it worked for a period of time.  Prior to the hostage crisis, Carter's popularity had fallen to record lows, lower than Nixon at the height of Watergate.  He was battered by high inflation, a gas shortage, and a general feeling of economic and foreign policy drift.  He made it worse by making a speech in July 1979 essentially blaming the American people for the problems the country faced.

But by the summer of 1980, the hostage crisis had outlived its political usefulness to Carter.  By then, his constant focus on the hostages was only a reminder of his failure to get them out.  It became just another example -- along with many others -- of his ineffectuality, and reminded people of why they hadn't liked him in the first place.

You're right that Carter announced an impending major development in the hostage crisis on, I believe, April 1, 1980, the eve of the Wisconsin primary.  That development was to be that the Iranian government was going to take over the custody of the hostages from the 'students.'  It was all part of a planned 'scenario' in which the US was to renounce involvement in Iran's internal affairs, make an apology of sorts for backing the Shah, unfreeze Iranian assets, and Iran in turn was to release the hostages.

This tacit arrangement, negotiated secretly between two intermediaries and Carter's Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan, fell apart when Khomeini overruled the whole thing, forcing President Bani-Sadr to resign.  Carter in response broke diplomatic relations with Iran (it's almost mind-boggling that he'd maintain diplomatic relations for 5 months with a country that had taken over the US embassy and was holding its employees hostage) and decided to go ahead with the [failed] rescue mission, which took place on April 24.

[??????????]

In December of 1979, Reagan was not the front runner.

Nope!

In fact, a poll in January 1980 showed Carter waaaaaay up on Reagan, by about 30 points.

Good thing for Reagan that someone got the hostage release delayed until Reagan's inaugration day.

LOL Where do you get this stuff from?

[© tweed]

In December of 1979, Reagan was not the front runner.

Nope!

In fact, a poll in January 1980 showed Carter waaaaaay up on Reagan, by about 30 points.

Good thing for Reagan that someone got the hostage release delayed until Reagan's inaugration day.

LOL Where do you get this stuff from?

That theory has been out there for a while, and makes sense to a certain degree.  But I tend to believe that the RNC didn't make a deal with Iran, but rather Khomeni held out from releasing the hostages until Jan 20 just to spite Carter.

[dazzleman]

In December of 1979, Reagan was not the front runner.

Nope!

In fact, a poll in January 1980 showed Carter waaaaaay up on Reagan, by about 30 points.

Good thing for Reagan that someone got the hostage release delayed until Reagan's inaugration day.

LOL Where do you get this stuff from?

That theory has been out there for a while, and makes sense to a certain degree.  But I tend to believe that the RNC didn't make a deal with Iran, but rather Khomeni held out from releasing the hostages until Jan 20 just to spite Carter.

I think the Iranians feared Reagan far more than Carter, and decided they better get the hostages out as he became president.  I also think, as you said, that they wanted to spite Carter.

I don't for a minute believe that the Reagan campaign made a deal with a hostile foreign power to continue holding American citizens hostage for Reagan's political gain.  For one thing, if it really happened, it was bound to come out, and that would have been ruinous.  This theory was spread by people with a hateful political agenda.

[Blue Rectangle]

In December of 1979, Reagan was not the front runner.

Nope!

In fact, a poll in January 1980 showed Carter waaaaaay up on Reagan, by about 30 points.

Good thing for Reagan that someone got the hostage release delayed until Reagan's inaugration day.

LOL Where do you get this stuff from?

That theory has been out there for a while, and makes sense to a certain degree.  But I tend to believe that the RNC didn't make a deal with Iran, but rather Khomeni held out from releasing the hostages until Jan 20 just to spite Carter.

Maybe not so much spite, but a way to save face.  I agree with dazzleman that Khomeni clearly feared Reagan more than Carter.  The changing of the guard was an opportunity to release the hostages before Reagan issued an ultimatum that would have pushed Khomeni into a corner.

One point the conspiracy theorists would have to address is that a Khomeni-Reagan deal would have meant that Khomeni owned Reagan.  He would have the ability to destroy Reagan by publicizing the deal.  So if there had been a deal, why did Khomeni not try to blackmail Reagan during, say, the latter years of the Iran-Iraq War when the U.S. was increasing support of Iraq?

[dazzleman]

Maybe not so much spite, but a way to save face.  I agree with dazzleman that Khomeni clearly feared Reagan more than Carter.  The changing of the guard was an opportunity to release the hostages before Reagan issued an ultimatum that would have pushed Khomeni into a corner.

One point the conspiracy theorists would have to address is that a Khomeni-Reagan deal would have meant that Khomeni owned Reagan.  He would have the ability to destroy Reagan by publicizing the deal.  So if there had been a deal, why did Khomeni not try to blackmail Reagan during, say, the latter years of the Iran-Iraq War when the U.S. was increasing support of Iraq?

One of the funniest cartoons I remember from that election was a cartoon of a trio of fat, smelly, turban-head Iranians wearing buttons that said "Re-elect Carter."  One of them was saying to the others, "I'm not really crazy about him, but frankly, Reagan scares me."