Ford re-elected in 1976

[© tweed]

Suppose Gerald Ford sucessfully pulls off the monumental comeback against Carter in 1976.

What Democrat wins in 1980?  My money's on Ted Kennedy.

[jokerman]

Scoop Jackson maybe?

Lloyd Bentsen?

[WalterMitty]

walter mondale is the best possiblity.

[Dr. Cynic]

In 1980, either Mondale, Jackson, or Udall.

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1980, even coming off Republican victories since 1968, maybe no Democrat could have defeated the charismatic, personable, engaging, completely disarming, master communicator and skillful media manipulator, Ronald Reagan.

[Dr. Cynic]

But would Reagan have run?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ford would've not been reelected. He was never elected in the first place.

[PBrunsel]

Dole wuld have most likely been the nominee in 1980, and he would have lost to Dale Bumpers, John Glenn, or Lloyd Bentsen.

[© tweed]

Ford would've not been reelected. He was never elected in the first place.

He came very, very close to Carter in 1976.  Just flip about 6000 in Ohio and 18000 in Wisconsin and Ford wins.  The 'no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe' line probably cost him the election.

[A18]

Ford would've not been reelected. He was never elected in the first place.

He came very, very close to Carter in 1976.  Just flip about 6000 in Ohio and 18000 in Wisconsin and Ford wins.  The 'no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe' line probably cost him the election.

He's saying if Ford had won, it wouldn't have been a re-election, because he was never elected in the first place.

[dazzleman]

This is an interesting scenario, because it requires making some assumptions of how things would have turned out in 1976-80 with Ford rather than Carter in the White House.

My guess is that while things would have been somewhat better with Ford, the Republicans were blessed to have been out of power during these years.

Had Ford been elected to a full term in 1976, the Democrats would definitely have had a strong advantage in 1980.

This is one of those situations in which the switch of a relatively few number of votes in 1976 could have had a major impact on the 1980s and forward.  If conditions had been as bad, or nearly as bad, in 1980 under Ford as they were under Carter, it's hard to imagine any Republican being elected that year.

Reagan may or may not have won, but running against Carter and being able to go on full attack, rather than having to defend, at least to some degree, the incumbent president, gave him a huge advantage.  And voters were not necessarily sold on Reagan's conservatism in 1980; they just wanted Carter out.

So assuming the Democrats would have won, I think that after a defeat for Carter in 1976, they probably would have gone back to a more conventional party candidate.  I doubt Scoop Jackson could have gotten the nomination, since he actually believed we needed a strong defense policy, which is anathema to the Democratic 'base,' even at a time of unprecedented Soviet military buildup.  Ted Kennedy may have gotten the nomination, but I have my doubts.  It probably would have been somebody awful, who would have made a huge mess of things, and the future would have been much darker and bleaker than it actually turned out to be under Reagan.