Mid Terms 2006 : State Assessments

[Harry Hayfield]

Alabama (7 congressional districts)
Share of 2004 Vote: GOP 60% Dem 40%
Number of likely gains: 0

It is fair to say that Alabama could have one of the lowest turnouts on Election Night?

[Jake]

Not unless you're on meth.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The Governor's race will have some affects on turnout in Alabama though.  I expect North Carolina, where no statewide officials are running, to have low turnout.  What will be interesting though is if battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Ohio, which were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election, can maintain the same level of voter turnout from two years ago.  The Casey-Santorum contest in PA will surely attract high turnout, but will it be to the same degree as 2004?  Also in OH, DeWine vs. Brown or Hackett might at least bring Democrats out to give Republicans a closer run than the 20-point marginss they've enjoyed there in the past few state races.

[Harry Hayfield]

Alaska (1 congressional district)
Share of 2004 Vote: GOP 71% Dem 22% Green 4% Lib 2%
Number of likely gains: 0

Now this is (in terms of the organisation of an election) a fascinating state. According to weather.com the average temperature in Juneau on Election Day is 38°F which isn't that bad, but compare that to the 28°F in Anchorage. Now, I realise that Alaskans are hardy, but if that's the average, how low could it get in a bad winter? Surely this must be the contender for the lowest turnout?

[Gustaf]

Are you only interested in saying all states are gonna have low turnout? :S