LibDem leadership election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

FINALLY

[minionofmidas]

Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

Would the Lib Dems have apologised if there had been no Oaten scandal? Don't count on it. The party always has and always will resort to anything in order to win an election.

Well, if a little scandal about a fellow party member was all it took...

[afleitch]

Perhaps in 20 years Galloway, free or unfree   will also apologise for the alleged racist and anti-semitic campaign he and his supporters ran against Oona King.

[Ben.]

Now this may very well be nothing much, at this stage it probably is just that, but…

A LibDem, apparently a big noise in their East Anglia party, has defected to the Conservatives.   

http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/

The Westminster blogs are getting pretty excited at the moment with chatter about the prospect of defections by LibDem MPs, admittedly Brian Sedgemore (odious man!) claimed some Labour MPs where ready to defect when he did to the LibDem last year, but that was never accompanied with much chatter like what’s coming out of the lobbies at the moment, added to which unlike Labour in May the LibDems seem to be mired in sleaze and currently embroiled in an inconclusive and unconstructive Leadership election which is, in stark contrast to the Tories last year, doing nothing for them nationally.

It will be interesting to see what the likes of Clegg, Laws, Davey and Cable get up to from here on in… I’m still doubtful anything exciting will happen, but it’d be nice if it did.   

[afleitch]

I can quite imagine centre-right (economically at least) Liberal MP's in marginal seats defecting to save their own ass.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Suffolk is a bit of dead-zone for the LibDems; they always come third, and a poor third at that. An interesting seat though; more affected by turnout than most (ie; when working class turnout is low (as in 2005) it looks like a safe or safe-ish Tory seat. When it isn't...).
The rumour of possible defections from people that actually matter is much more interesting... especially if it's more than blog noise...

[Rural Radical]

changing the subject. Isnt Simon Hughes the longest serving Lib Dem MP ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No; I'm pretty sure that Beith is (first elected in a by-election in the early '70's).

[Ben.]

Any one got a good idea of which LibDem MPs (beyond Laws o/c ) would be tempted to switch, Davey? Clegg?   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seeing as unlike most (actually nearly all) defection rumours there does seem to be something genuine about this (even if we're only dealing with *threats* to resign...) might as well give it a guess... some of the West Country M.P's are quite conservative, but not really in a way that fits with any overtures from the Tories (with the obvious exceptions like Laws) so... thing is it'd have to be people who could either win their seats as Tories or who fit in well enough with whatever ideological leaning Tory central office has these days to be parachuted into some commuterland seat... hmm... I don't think any of this will happen, if it happens at all, until after the leadership election is over. And even then only if Hughes wins.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now then... how will Hughes (finally) coming out, effect things?

[afleitch]

Now then... how will Hughes (finally) coming out, effect things?

It means I won't be making potentially libellous comments about him anymore

I think if you are a supporter who likes Simon Hughes, it won't matter at all nor influence your vote. If you don't like him, you still won't, but you can't use his announcement against him as it is political suicide to do so.

[Rural Radical]

Al

Youre right Alan Beith is the longest serving Lib Dem (a by election in 1973) im sure hughes is the next then Kennedy.

About defections none will go to the tories unless Hughes wins. When Campbell wins however and moves closer to the Tories then what defections might go to Labour ? Opik, Foster etc ?

[afleitch]

Lib Dems down to 13% in latest You Gov Poll

Lab 40%
Con 39%

Raw 'Baxter' results give

LAB 360
CON 257
LIB 2 (!)

Labour Majority of 74.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lab 40%
Con 39%

Bloody hell!

[afleitch]

Lab 40%
Con 39%

Bloody hell!

I know. We haven't seen those figures for close to 15 years. It shows how incredibly soft Lib Dem support is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know. We haven't seen those figures for close to 15 years.

And then but fleetingly; between the messy merger and the SaLaDs changing their name to the LibDems... it's almost as if the mold that the SDP broke has just been fixed; quite appropriate on their 25th really...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

12% is the sort of figure the pre-SDPed Liberals used to poll most of the time IIRC...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Read and laugh: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/IBE060101001_1.pdf

[Rural Radical]

Anyway else know anything about the gropu of 20 Lib Dem activists in Hodge Hill planning to quit and join Labour ? I read a short piece of it in The Times on Thursday.

[Ben.]

About defections none will go to the tories unless Hughes wins. When Campbell wins however and moves closer to the Tories then what defections might go to Labour ? Opik, Foster etc ?

I think that’s rather optimistic rural if you ask me.

Campbell has spelled out pretty categorically that his views would place the party to the left of Labour, he is certainly not a member of the “orange book fraternity” though it would be fair to say he was a more centrist figure than Hughes, Opik etc…

The reason Laws, Clegg, Cable, Davey etc… are backing Campbell is they see him as credible and not in danger of lurching the party to the left as Hughes might be tempted to do. There is a huge gulf emerging between the LibDem parliamentary party and the broader membership with the former containing a far large section of free-market enthusiasts than the latter.

 For “Orange Bookers” Ming is a means to an end, namely maintain the Kennedy fudge on key policy issues, forestalling a leftwing putsch by Hughes and Co and allowing the likes of Davey and Clegg to improve their positions in time for a leadership big after the next general election.

The simple fact is though that Ming will not have the personal “attributes” nor the circumstances which helped Kennedy so much between 2001 and 2005 and combine that with a recovering Tory party espousing positions very similar to those advocated by a number of LibDem MPs and there is good reason to expect defections in the medium to long term though not, I think, in the immediate future.

As for defections to Labour, I don’t see that really, few LibDem MPs would survive as Labour MPs and by and large Labour is simply to authoritarian in its polices for most, at a local level its possible and maybe a wildcard – is Leech firmly attached to the LibDems? I would imagine so, but he’d certainly survive as a Labour MP, Teather? Doubt it.

The big direct beneficiaries from any LibDem collapse will be the Tories, places like Winchester, Bath, Cheadle etc… could all be reclaimed, at the same time however Labour could hope to recoup the loss of some lefties who loaned their vote, largely in protest, to the LibDems last time around yet at the same time this could be nullified by centrist voters who abandoned the Tories in 92 and 97 for Labour and the LibDems flowing back to “Cameron’s Conservatives”.                   

[afleitch]

ICM Poll: Conducted Thursday to Saturday

CON 37
LAB 36
LIB 18

Edit- 4 out of 10 Lib Dem voters want Charles Kennedy back! I'll try and get the link ASAP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM Poll: Conducted Thursday to Saturday

CON 37
LAB 36
LIB 18

Same sort of pattern to the other polls; big two basically tied, LibDems down on last election. But not by as much as the others. ICM has a very different methodology to YouGov after all.
O/c polls this far out from General Elections are kinda meaningless in their own right... but... they can have an indirect effect as far as panicking parties go...

There was a very significant local by-election last week (look at the thread).

[afleitch]

New MORI poll based on interviewing more than 2000 people

CON 40
LAB 38
LIB 17

Edit -  Based on certainty to vote and conducted up to the 23rd of January- so already out of date.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All the polls are showing the same thing; Labour/Tory statistical tie (both up from last election), LibDems sharp drop from last election.
Was that Mori's certain-to-vote poll or their everyone poll?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full Mori figures...

Certain to vote: Con 40%, Lab 38%, LD 17%
All: Lab 42%, Con 35%, LD 17%

...which tells you quite how turnout effect elections are over here doesn't it?