LibDem leadership election

[Peter]

Possibly the worst of all possible scenarios for the challengers to be faced with IMO.

A leadership election amongst the party's membership is the vote that he is most likely to survive, and he has obviously worked this out.

If he had called a vote of confidence amongst the MPs, he would almost certainly have lost (over a sixth of his MPs have signed a letter to that effect already), and he would probably lose a vote of confidence amongst the members as well.

However, by calling a leadership election, he has forced his opponents to put their names forward in the light of day, and just as Major discovered in 1995, this usually works in quietening them for a little while. If Hughes, Campbell, et al have any sense they will arrange that no opponent is put up against him whatsoever. Then we have a situation where he is automatically returned and he cannot claim a renewed mandate and so they can continue to push for a no confidence vote.

Essentially they are all scared blind of "Heseltine syndrome" - He who wields the knife shall never wear the crown. They want rid of him, but in a way that leaves as little blood on people's hands as possible.

[Peter]

Yeah, but there's absolutely no provision in the party rules for such a motion, which makes that entire option problematic at best, unless it is Kennedy himself that calls the vote.

[Peter]

Yeah, but there's absolutely no provision in the party rules for such a motion, which makes that entire option problematic at best, unless it is Kennedy himself that calls the vote.

How crazy are the LibDem leadership rules, exactly?

Basically the only way to forcibly remove the leader short of assaination is to challenge him in the annual leadership election thing - there is no "No confidence" motion or mid-year challenge provision in the rules. The next regular one is scheduled for June, so he could theoretically hold on that long if it were his wish, though it would be politically impossible.

[Peter]

The Social Democratic Party, a party that I would be a member of, a party that my aunt was a member of, is nothing like the perversion of it that is the Liberal Democratic Party.

I would remind you that Charles Kennedy betrayed the SDP when he and that other Scottish traitor tried to destroy it, and then when they harassed David Owen at his daughter's birthday party.

For the record, the Social Democratic Party of today has four Councillors on Bridlington Town Council in East Yorks, one of whom is actually Mayor. It also has three Councillors on the Neath Port Talbot Borough Council. It also has a sole Councillor on Richmondshire District Council in North Yorkshire.

In total the party presently has 54 members, of whom 47 are in East Yorkshire according to its accounts filed with the Electoral Commission.

[Peter]

Okay, I'm getting some idea of the signatories now:

Norman Baker, Tom Brake, Ed Davey, Andrew George, Sandra Gidley, Jeremy Browne, Lynne Featherstone, Jo Swinson, Evan Harris, Nick Harvey, Adrian Sanders, Sarah Teather, Jenny Willott, Vince Cable, David Laws, Chris Huhne, John Thurso, Norman Lamb and Michael Moore.

Thats 19. So I'm missing 6.

[Peter]

And meanwhile, the rats leave the sinking ship. Is it wise to seek to dethrone the most successful Liberal leader in 80 years?

This is one of the great misnomers of this entire debate. He's not the most successful leader by any quantitative or qualitative standard.

In 1999 when he took over as Lib Dem leader, they had 46 MPs. At the 01 election they gained a further 6 and in 05 they gained a further 10, making a total of 16 MPs gaind in 6 years.

Now compare that to Paddy Ashdown: He took over in 1988 with 19 MPs. By the time he left in 1999 the party had 46 MPs, making for a gain of 27 MPs in 11 years. Ashdown also presided over their single most successful election in memory: In 1997 they gained 26 MPs in one election.

In terms of share of the vote Kennedy gained 22% in 2005, but that doesn't beat the Alliance's 25.4% in 1983 under Steel and Jenkins.

By any measurable standard, he has not been all that successful.

In more qualitative terms he's not either. Many considered the 2005 election to be the Lib Dems big chance - they could and should have been knocking on 90 to 100 seats if they were to have begun to become the Opposition. Seats like Oxford East, NUT Central, Guildford, Orpington, Hornsey and Wood Green, Durham, Edinburgh North, and so many more should have swung Lib Dem if they were to make the move. They had two protest votes - those disillusioned with Iraq, and those who were scared of Michael Howard - they will never have that chance again, and he squandered it.

Of course, in qualitative terms, the most successful leader has to be Jo Grimond, who quite literally brought the party back from the dead

[Peter]

Charles Kennedy has announced his name will not go forward for the leadership election that is due to happen in the coming weeks.

[Peter]

He's confirmed that he's resigned. Now what?

We bet on who will be candidates for the leadership. There's a distinct possibility that about there could be around 8 candidates if this thing gets out of hand.

[Peter]

According to Sky News, Menzies Campbell will be making an announcement "shortly".

[Peter]

File this under "funny"... John Hemming (yes, that one) is likely to stand!

http://johnhemming.blogspot.com/

You've got to read his blog, its just pure entertainment.

[Peter]

Whats interesting about Huhne is that despite being an Orange Book contributor, he was actually a Social Democrat, having contested Oxwab for the party in 87.

In The Mirror - my family's favoured tabloid - it reports that yesterday on Radio 4's Today programme that the Lib Dems main donor businessman Michael Brown, who funded them to the tune of £2.4 million last year, is so appalled at the treatment of Kennedy, he's 99.99% certain he won't be donating again

A principled man

Actually, its quite naive of him. If he cannot recognise that Kennedy had to go, and that politics is often messy and vicious, then he shouldn't be bankrolling parties in the first place.