LibDem leadership election

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Ming the Merciless has also announced that he won't run

I wonder if this is going to be a 'put up or shut up' leadership election aka Major 1995 with only one token candidate up against Kennedy.

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Hughes has said he hasn't made his mind up yet

Usually a sign that means 'yes'

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The SDP were always a treacherous lot. They couldn't stand the heat in the Labour kitchen so they jumped ship along with Brocklebank-Fowler. Interesting to think that they stood at 29 MP's before dissolution (their highest number was 30) I think I may make a map

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Jo Swinson has a good future ahead of her, this is a big gamble for her.

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You Gov survey of party membership has 65-27 against Kennedy. Importantly though that is based on the question of whom they want to lead them at the NEXT election, Kennedy or someone else, not necessarily that they want him to go right now.

As for potential leaders 49% want Campbell, 21 Huges and 14% Oaten

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Kennedy to step down at 3.00PM GMT

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4590688.stm

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He sounded, quite understandably, angry.

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Campbell will probably walk it. He was wise enough not to put his name on the list and can therefore proclaim himself as the 'if I must i must' candidate.

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At this precise moment, the only 'liberal' leader, to use such a sweeping term is David Cameron.

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File this under "funny"... John Hemming (yes, that one) is likely to stand!

I for one hope he wins

Three party politics my....

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16% is as low as they can go really. I think the Lib Dems have a bedrock support of about 12-15% who will vote for them thick and thin and we are seeing a significant 'peeling back' of their support. There has been very little Lab to Con switching- I think it's been estimated at 1 in 13 or 1 in 16 Labour voters in a poll a few weeks back.

I have no idea of Populus' methodology and whether it was adjusted to reflect the 2005 election result, but these figures seen about right to me.

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Feeding this into electoralcalculus and... the LibDems are reduced to just 11 seats. Prominant LibDem casualties would include David Laws, Mark Oaten, Vince Cable and Simon Hughes.

Of course that's a dumb thing to do; any collapse is going to be worst in seats where they don't win but nonetheless have a sizable following.

True, the Lib Dems are ruthless campaigners on a local level and will put their all into holding seats should their votes heamorrage. However it is likely they will suffer in the South in particular, if there are even small swings to the Tories. There were already reversals in 2005 including Newbury and Weston Super Mare for example and they are in danger of loosing the cluster of South West London seats they gained in 1997.

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It will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems perform in the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections. Despite being a fully fledged coalition partner, the public seem unwilling to pin any Executive mistakes onto them. In 2005 they became Scotlands second most popular party in terms of share of the vote (yet in 2003 they were 4th) Yet a glance at their constituency seats gives the impression that they are in a stronger position that they would seem, despite coming 4th.

If they hold firm or even advance in 2007 it will of course be to Labour's advantage- if Labour voters switch to the Lib Dems and not to the SNP, Labour will hold on in the central belt 'marginals' even though they may have to pay the price come the coalition deal. With Salmond back on his stomping ground in 2007 the SNP should in theory outperform 2003 where they did worse than expected. Yet the Tories really need the SNP to underperform in the North East in order to take a few constituency seats.

Luckily Scotland is developing diverging regional voting patterns making it fat less easy to predict.

EDIT- The probably collapse of the shambolic SSP could offset SNP advances in the Central Belt to the benefit of Labour.

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...if these voters go back to Labour, that is. Others might just vote some other protest option - might vote SNP, even - , or not go to the polls at all.

Thats true. It is expected amongst political circles that the Greens are likely to advance electorally (all depends on second preference. The Greens won most second preference votes in one constituency last time round - Edinburgh Central) to such an extent that the SNP have been courting them with the posibility of a so called 'green tartan' or 'sunflower thistle' coalition that while would be unlikely to have a majority should be able to hold power if the SNP win the most seats.

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Chris 'who?' Huhne has now entered the race.

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Winchester- if indeed there is a by-election - is the very seat the Conservatives need to win. The Lib Dems fell 4% points in 2005, Labour's vote went up the most and we had a 2.1% swing to the Tories.

Eastleigh and Romsey, two bordering Liberal seats also swung to the Tories, with Romsey being an ultra-marginal and Chris 'Whos?', Eastleigh alos with a small majority. So Lib Dem seats in that area swung slightly to the Tories (though neighbouring Tory seats swung to the Lib Dems :/ )

Yet I don't think the Conservatives could take this seat unless we see some of the Liberal votes switching to Labour out of apathy or whatever, but just enough to make the Tories task easier. How the Labour vote holds up in a seat like this would be the most interesting indication of current political fortune.

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Well, Well, Well...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2007038,00.html

'SIMON HUGHES apologised last night for homophobic behaviour by Liberal Democrats in one of the most bitterly contested by-elections in decades.

Mr Hughes won his Bermondsey seat in 1983 against a backdrop of anti-gay campaigning designed to erode support for Peter Tatchell, the gay-rights campaigner who opposed him.

During the by-election, won by Mr Hughes with one of the biggest recorded swings against Labour, the Liberal Democrats presented him as “the straight choice” while Mr Tatchell was smeared by political rivals.'

Would the Lib Dems have apologised if there had been no Oaten scandal? Don't count on it. The party always has and always will resort to anything in order to win an election.

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Perhaps in 20 years Galloway, free or unfree   will also apologise for the alleged racist and anti-semitic campaign he and his supporters ran against Oona King.

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I can quite imagine centre-right (economically at least) Liberal MP's in marginal seats defecting to save their own ass.

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Now then... how will Hughes (finally) coming out, effect things?

It means I won't be making potentially libellous comments about him anymore

I think if you are a supporter who likes Simon Hughes, it won't matter at all nor influence your vote. If you don't like him, you still won't, but you can't use his announcement against him as it is political suicide to do so.

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Lib Dems down to 13% in latest You Gov Poll

Lab 40%
Con 39%

Raw 'Baxter' results give

LAB 360
CON 257
LIB 2 (!)

Labour Majority of 74.

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Lab 40%
Con 39%

Bloody hell!

I know. We haven't seen those figures for close to 15 years. It shows how incredibly soft Lib Dem support is.

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ICM Poll: Conducted Thursday to Saturday

CON 37
LAB 36
LIB 18

Edit- 4 out of 10 Lib Dem voters want Charles Kennedy back! I'll try and get the link ASAP.

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New MORI poll based on interviewing more than 2000 people

CON 40
LAB 38
LIB 17

Edit -  Based on certainty to vote and conducted up to the 23rd of January- so already out of date.

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ICM POLL

CON 37 No change
LAB 34 Down 2
LIB 21 Up 2