LibDem leadership election

[Ben.]

Hughes has said he hasn't made his mind up yet

Usually a sign that means 'yes'

What I was thinking, if a Laws or Clegg or Huhne runs I think Hughes will run... he may run on his own but i think he'd like someone else to break cover first... Chris Huhne signed the letter i think it might well be him to run first. 

My Dearest hope is that Sarah "the hamster" Teather, who signed the letter, will run :

[Ben.]

Ben, do you have a list of the people who signed the letter? Or who are rumoured to have signed it?

Just what was mentioned on CH4 News – got an email – Clegg, Huhne, Cable, Davey and Teather where all named as having signed it.     

[Ben.]

The return to two party politics continues apace

This implosion on the part of the LibDems is more a symptom of a wider readjustment in UK politics the Tories solidifying and reoccupying lost ground and Labour returning to solidify its core support while retaining some of the ground gained from the Tories post 92 fairly resiliently. 

Campbell, should he be elected, is able and credible, but I don’t see him providing the LibDems with anything special, he stops the bleeding that could have occupied had a more divisive figures such as Hughes or Oaten got the leadership but I don’t see him as capable of seeing off a large section of the voters tempted to go back to Cameron’s conservative party nor do I see him consolidating the party’s gains against Labour since the Iraq War… then again I don’t think that the Kennedy policy of going after both the Tories and Labour was doomed to collapse and I don’t see any potential leader who could have pulled it off.     

[Ben.]

File this under "funny"... John Hemming (yes, that one) is likely to stand!

LOL!

An egotistical, dishonest, ugly, womanizer sounds like the perfect party leader to me! 

[Ben.]

...and it's just become clear why. Very clear.

And How!

I wonder if the Tories are rethinking their prospects in Winchester now

[Ben.]

Oaten now facing pressure from within his constituency to quit and promt a by-election.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/01/24/nlib24.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/01/24/ixhome.html

...if there is a by-election, which i doubt, the a lot will be riding on the Tory performance - Winchester is a seat which should never have fallen to the LibDems.

The Tories ran a very good campaign in Cheadle, not that they got much credit for it, it would be interesting to see a by-election in a seat like Winchester, sadl i dont think it'll happen

[Ben.]

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No they didn't; they ran a reasonable campaign (that's true) but they failed to put the boot into the LibDem candidate over his (dire) record on Stockport MBC.

Well if you compare it with previous Tory by-election, and even general election campaigns, it was pretty good… The Tories have less “by-election” form than Labour (and that’s saying something). I have to admit that the “new” Labour reputation for being a slick vote winning machine was always over rated and that was brought into sharp relief in the by-elections over the last few years in Leicester and Birmingham the Labour campaign was inferior to both the LibDems and even, to a limited extent, the Conservatives.

In the general election the best Labour, and this extended to a much lesser extent LibDems and Tories, campaigns where often those which steered clear of national party direction and template literature and simply fought, clever an consistent local campaigns.

As for Chedale I think that Reynard and the LibDem had high hopes of a massive by-election win, as it was the best they could do was repeat their general election success with a very low Labour turnout compounded by a TV squeeze.

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I agree, the national image of Howard was simply toxic beyond the core Tory vote his main contribution was a restoration of discipline within the Conservative Parliamentary Party and to a lesser extent restoring focus at Smith Square (or their new offices above that star bucks in London… how apt )

Cameron’s national image is far more sunny and positive, indeed for most people there really isn’t much more to Cameron than a sunny disposition and optimism, which may prove a problem further down the line (though I doubt he’ll let it come to that). Its easy to imagine the ladies that lunch and white collar families of Winchester, in a fine spring by-election warming very much to nice well spoken, married Tory leader who will no doubt crisscross the seat… what more they seem to have a well qualified, photogenic candidate from last time round who came close to knocking the LibDems off in neighbouring Romsey, Caroline Nokes… lots of chatter amongst Tories that if there is a by-election she’ll be under a lot of pressure to stand though the candidate in Winchester last time round is leader of the local Tories on the council and might/ or might not/ be a credible candidate as well.

Hmmm… I think we’ll have a better idea of what happens in the next few days and weeks, first of all I think Oaten got to see if he can save his marriage (its not surprising really when you hear the details of what he got up to), more importantly I doubt he can both save his marriage and remain an MP, what more I think Oaten would be incredibly brave to show his face at Westminster, let alone the commons! Any time over the next few weeks. Well as I say we’ll see.                      

[Ben.]

Now this may very well be nothing much, at this stage it probably is just that, but…

A LibDem, apparently a big noise in their East Anglia party, has defected to the Conservatives.   

http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/

The Westminster blogs are getting pretty excited at the moment with chatter about the prospect of defections by LibDem MPs, admittedly Brian Sedgemore (odious man!) claimed some Labour MPs where ready to defect when he did to the LibDem last year, but that was never accompanied with much chatter like what’s coming out of the lobbies at the moment, added to which unlike Labour in May the LibDems seem to be mired in sleaze and currently embroiled in an inconclusive and unconstructive Leadership election which is, in stark contrast to the Tories last year, doing nothing for them nationally.

It will be interesting to see what the likes of Clegg, Laws, Davey and Cable get up to from here on in… I’m still doubtful anything exciting will happen, but it’d be nice if it did.   

[Ben.]

Any one got a good idea of which LibDem MPs (beyond Laws o/c ) would be tempted to switch, Davey? Clegg?   

[Ben.]

About defections none will go to the tories unless Hughes wins. When Campbell wins however and moves closer to the Tories then what defections might go to Labour ? Opik, Foster etc ?

I think that’s rather optimistic rural if you ask me.

Campbell has spelled out pretty categorically that his views would place the party to the left of Labour, he is certainly not a member of the “orange book fraternity” though it would be fair to say he was a more centrist figure than Hughes, Opik etc…

The reason Laws, Clegg, Cable, Davey etc… are backing Campbell is they see him as credible and not in danger of lurching the party to the left as Hughes might be tempted to do. There is a huge gulf emerging between the LibDem parliamentary party and the broader membership with the former containing a far large section of free-market enthusiasts than the latter.

 For “Orange Bookers” Ming is a means to an end, namely maintain the Kennedy fudge on key policy issues, forestalling a leftwing putsch by Hughes and Co and allowing the likes of Davey and Clegg to improve their positions in time for a leadership big after the next general election.

The simple fact is though that Ming will not have the personal “attributes” nor the circumstances which helped Kennedy so much between 2001 and 2005 and combine that with a recovering Tory party espousing positions very similar to those advocated by a number of LibDem MPs and there is good reason to expect defections in the medium to long term though not, I think, in the immediate future.

As for defections to Labour, I don’t see that really, few LibDem MPs would survive as Labour MPs and by and large Labour is simply to authoritarian in its polices for most, at a local level its possible and maybe a wildcard – is Leech firmly attached to the LibDems? I would imagine so, but he’d certainly survive as a Labour MP, Teather? Doubt it.

The big direct beneficiaries from any LibDem collapse will be the Tories, places like Winchester, Bath, Cheadle etc… could all be reclaimed, at the same time however Labour could hope to recoup the loss of some lefties who loaned their vote, largely in protest, to the LibDems last time around yet at the same time this could be nullified by centrist voters who abandoned the Tories in 92 and 97 for Labour and the LibDems flowing back to “Cameron’s Conservatives”.                   

[Ben.]

...by the sound of it Campbell, Huhne and Hughes are all very close at the moment.

Its between Huhne and Campbell, Hughes is out of it (in more ways than one )... in the end its likley that Huhne will win and i get the sense he won't be esspecially good, the LibDems could well live to regret Davey, Laws and Clegg not running.

[Ben.]

In a nutshell, Brown leads on capability and Camerin leads on likeablity

Exactly

Added to which there is a suggestion that the poll over sampled Labour voters.

Mori’s volatility of late is simply bizarre, I got this from pb.com…

Pollster variations since November 2005

Mori: Labour lead/deficit in a range from +10 to -9
Populus: Labour lead/deficit in a range +8 to -1

YouGov: Labour lead/deficit in a range +2 to -2
ICM: Labour lead/deficit in a range +5 to -4

… to my mind both YouGov and ICM, despite different methodologies seem most credible of all the pollsters but for Mori to have such variations with no real events to have caused them (indeed currently events would seem to be running against Labour) simply suggests that Bob Worcester has learnt nothing from his “President Kerry” and “Labour Landslide” calls of the past.

As things stand I think Labour is probably ever so slightly behind, due more to their own weakness (Dunfermline, Education Bill, etc…) than Tory strength.

Cameron has succeeded in winning back some support but for the most part its come from the softer LibDem supporters and to a lesser extent from Labour. But with his honeymoon over he’s stalled while he fights to establish his authority over the party while resisting calls for a shift to the right.

Meanwhile the LibDems have recouped their losses thanks largely to the Tories once again “talking about themselves” and a mix of Dunfermline and general Labour difficulty returning them to contention.

I think things will remain pretty similar until the fight Blair’s got with his backbenchers and the fight Cameron’s with the Tory right are both resolved one way or another.