The next Vermonts and West Virginias

[FerrisBueller86]

Which states are you expecting to be next to make such dramatic changes in a relatively short period of time?

Vermont was once even more heavily Republican than Utah.  Vermont was one of two states that FDR never won (Maine was the other).  Before 1964, no Democratic nominee had ever won Vermont.  From 1968 to 1988, no Democratic nominee won Vermont.  Beginning in 1992, the Democratic nominee easily carried Vermont.  In 2004, John Kerry carried Vermont by nearly as large a margin as Bill Clinton did in 1996.

From 1932 to 1996, the Democratic nominee carried West Virginia except in the biggest Republican landslides (1956, 1972, and 1984).  The Democratic nominee managed to carry West Virginia even in some Republican landslide years (1952, 1980, and 1988).

Let's try to guess which states will be next to make similar changes.

[Alcon]

South Dakota, but not North Dakota.

[FerrisBueller86]

I think Montana and Colorado could be the next Vermonts.  Both state governments went Democratic in 2004.  There are so many parallels between Montana and Vermont: lots of wild and mountainous land, people who love their guns, and a reputation for being crazy.  Montana's Democratic governor has become increasingly popular, with an approval rating of 65%-70% and building a reputation as a maverick fighting corruption.

Colorado is considered to be a libertarian state as well.  I know that there HAS to be a liberal side, as Congresswoman Pat Schroder (once of NOW's favorite representatives) was elected here.   Colorado also isn't as heavily Republican as it used to be and is now considered a second tier battleground.  I hope the Democrats point out that the Republican Party is Joe Camel's party.  Because Colorado has a low smoking rate and little or no tobacco industry, an anti-tobacco lobby campaign could point out this symbol of Republican hypocrisy.

I think that once Democratic states that could turn Republican are Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Iowa is a state that was once heavily Republican, then turned Democratic, and now seems to be trending Republican again.  BRTD has been telling us that Minnesota is socially conservative but economically liberal, which sounds a lot like West Virginia.  Wisconsin seems to be a lot like Iowa.  I think these are the states most sensitive to who the Democratic nominee is.  A nominee with good populist credibility will do well.  A nominee without it will fare poorly.  If Russ Feingold is the nominee in 2008, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will be out of reach for the Republican candidate.  On the other hand, these three states would be out of reach for Joe Lieberman or Joe Biden.

[FerrisBueller86]

South Dakota, but not North Dakota.

Why would South Dakota turn Democratic but not North Dakota?  Aren't these states pretty similar?

[True Democrat]

Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa for the next West Virginias.  Maybe Missouri too.  For the next Vermont: New Hampshire, Colorado, Montana, and Alaska in the very distant future.

[Gustaf]

If we're talking about states that are now heavily Democratic/Republican but will have a clear tilt to the other side, I don't see any in the foreseeable future. In the long run, who knows, some SOuthern states maybe? I'm thinking about Virginia, straight Republican since 1964 but could well be trending Democrat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Virginia is becoming more Democratic, in 2008, if Mark Warner will be the nominee, the old heart of the Confederacy could vote for us. Similarly, I think the same trend is occuring in North Carolina, which is becoming more metro and diverse. In some Southerns states, like Mississippi and South Carolina, isn't the black population rising as more urban African-Americans from the North return to the heartland and whites leave. In Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, I think the GOP trend was evident from 1996-2004; in the last presidential election, MN moved back towards the Democrats - I think it has a long history of attachment to the party of organized labour and its politicians like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. I think Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania will remain swing states.

[opebo]

If we're talking about states that are now heavily Democratic/Republican but will have a clear tilt to the other side...

Yes, I agree if that is the formulation it eliminates a lot of states which have been close to tossups for a long time - such as OH, MO, IA, and WS.

But I think Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, New Hamshire, and perhaps someday Montana are good choices. 

I don't see any strongly Democrat states moving to strongly Republican - I guess that already happened years ago in the South.

[ilikeverin]

Not Minnesota.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

We're talking about states here that go from overwhemlingly in support of one party to pretty solid for the other. 

I think New Hampshire is the next Vermont, but that's too easy.  For this, I guess you can make an argument for Colorado.  In the past, there was no winning here for the Dems (92 was an anomally, Dole still carried in 96, even with Perot helping Clinton) The developed areas are becoming very latte-liberal (Denver and Aspen especially).  The more conservative areas are pretty libertarian, and the Democrats are trending slightly that way.  I could see Colorado being like a New Jersey for the Dems pretty soon. 

Minnesota is the obvious choice on the other side, but something tells me a battleground is as far as they will trend to the GOP.  This is really a hard choice....the states that could be considered very democratic at any point  in the past 20 years (CA, HI, IL, MN, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT), really don't seem to be trending very far away from the Dems.  I think this whole thing (heavily dem states going to solid GOP) has already happened in the South. 

[Kevinstat]

....the states that could be considered very democratic at any point  in the past 20 years (CA, HI, IL, MN, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT), really don't seem to be trending very far away from the Dems.  I think this whole thing (heavily dem states going to solid GOP) has already happened in the South. 

West Virginia could certainly be considered to have been very Democratic until some stage of the 2000 Presidential Election campain (possibly early in the year or even in 1999, but back then Gore was far down everywhere and people were likely expecting him to win West Virginia comfortably in the end unless he got badly defeated nationally), and it has at least trended far away from the Dems if not become a solid GOP state in Presidential elections (2008 will provide some clues as to that).  California has never gone Democratic by equal to or greater than the 14.75% margin Clinton carried West Virginia in 1996 since 1964 (although I believe every other state you mentioned has in 1990s, so if you didn't include California in your list you could get away in my book with not including West Virginia).  Iowa's trend away from the Democrats since 1996 is also of note, especially considering it went for Dukakis in 1988, but it's largest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 is its -10.34% margin for Clinton in 1996, so it doesn't qualify for the above group.

Good points though, TACB/HockeyDude.  I just thought I'd mention a possible exception to what you claimed in that statement.

[MaC]

Massachusetts will become hardcore conservative and Republican.

Alaska will go liberal democrat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Actually the largest margin of victory of West Virginia since 1964 was Jimmy Carter's 1976 win over Gerald Ford, he carried it 58.07%-41.93%.

[Bono]

Delaware

[Adlai Stevenson]

Delaware would be interesting.  I think that it could become more of a bellwether, like a mini Pennsylvania, but I don't think that it is suddenly going to vote 60%-40% for whoever the GOP nominee is in 2008.  Kent and Sussex counties, which Kerry lost in 2004, account for 37% of the vote.  In 2000, they accounted for 33%.  New Castle county is obviously what keeps the state Democratic. 

[Alcon]

Delaware

That's a very interesting choice.  Truth be told, I'm always surprised by how conservative central Delaware is.  I'd think it would be a swing area, with Dover and everything.

[Kevinstat]

Yeah Joe Biden actually lost Kent County in 2002.  And I don't think he carried Suffolk County by much.  I'm not sure who won those two counties combined, but I do know Biden won statewide by 17.4% (58.2% to 40.8%).  Cashcow could probably figure out the county-by-county results by checking out http://www.state.de.us/election/archive/elect02/2002_election_index.shtml and clicking on "2002 Official General Election Results - Results by Election District" ( http://www.state.de.us/election/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml ).

[Kevin]

I heard rumors that IL would become a swing state again.

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I heard rumors that IL would become a swing state again.

I hear rumors on the Internets that in 2008, the Democrat will win UT and lose DC.

[Kevin]

   LOL! The Republicans are gurenteed UT and the Democrats are gurenteed DC and they will most likley win IL in 08. However in regred to IL I think of a long period of time it will become more of a swing state maybe in 2012 or 2016 in that matter.     

[Adlai Stevenson]

Why Illinois?  It is rather solidly Democratic.  The Congressional delegation changed from 10 R, 9 D to 10 D, 9 R in the 2004 elections and when Hyde retires this year the Democrats have a chance of capturing his seat, an historically conservative Illinois suburb which trended to us last election when he was re-elected by only 56%-44% after having been in Congress since 1974.

Both Illinois Senators are popular Democrats who will probably carry on being elected by wide margins; Durbin won 60%-38% in 2002 and Obama 70%-27% in 2004.  In 2008 with a Democrat running for President at the top of the ticket Durbin is ensured another victory.  He may retire in 2014 but Obama will at least run for re-election in 2010 and may be on a national ticket in 2012 or 2016. 

The Governorship is less secure but that reflects much less the state trend in national elections.  Democrats seem to have a good base here while the GOP have been traditionally weak.

[Kevin]

  I have a feeling the GOP will regain IL's Govenorship in 2006 and may beat the Congresswoman who beat Phil Crane.   

[Lincoln Republican]

Rhode Island goes Republican  (the next West Virginia)

Idaho goes Democrat (the next Vermont)

Maybe somewhere around 2080

[Alcon]

Rhode Island goes Republican  (the next West Virginia)

Idaho goes Democrat (the next Vermont)

Maybe somewhere around 2080

Wow, what kind of party switch will this be?

[Cubby]

South Dakota, but not North Dakota.

Why would South Dakota turn Democratic but not North Dakota?  Aren't these states pretty similar?

Because South Dakota has a (relatively) large Native American population, and they are heavily Democrat. They also have a higher birth rate so they are increasing as a percentage of the state (same in ND but smaller population base). The white population in the Dakotas is very old and the young always leave after high school. BRTD knows more about this, I'm just speaking in general terms.