The next Vermonts and West Virginias

[FerrisBueller86]

Which states are you expecting to be next to make such dramatic changes in a relatively short period of time?

Vermont was once even more heavily Republican than Utah.  Vermont was one of two states that FDR never won (Maine was the other).  Before 1964, no Democratic nominee had ever won Vermont.  From 1968 to 1988, no Democratic nominee won Vermont.  Beginning in 1992, the Democratic nominee easily carried Vermont.  In 2004, John Kerry carried Vermont by nearly as large a margin as Bill Clinton did in 1996.

From 1932 to 1996, the Democratic nominee carried West Virginia except in the biggest Republican landslides (1956, 1972, and 1984).  The Democratic nominee managed to carry West Virginia even in some Republican landslide years (1952, 1980, and 1988).

Let's try to guess which states will be next to make similar changes.

[FerrisBueller86]

I think Montana and Colorado could be the next Vermonts.  Both state governments went Democratic in 2004.  There are so many parallels between Montana and Vermont: lots of wild and mountainous land, people who love their guns, and a reputation for being crazy.  Montana's Democratic governor has become increasingly popular, with an approval rating of 65%-70% and building a reputation as a maverick fighting corruption.

Colorado is considered to be a libertarian state as well.  I know that there HAS to be a liberal side, as Congresswoman Pat Schroder (once of NOW's favorite representatives) was elected here.   Colorado also isn't as heavily Republican as it used to be and is now considered a second tier battleground.  I hope the Democrats point out that the Republican Party is Joe Camel's party.  Because Colorado has a low smoking rate and little or no tobacco industry, an anti-tobacco lobby campaign could point out this symbol of Republican hypocrisy.

I think that once Democratic states that could turn Republican are Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Iowa is a state that was once heavily Republican, then turned Democratic, and now seems to be trending Republican again.  BRTD has been telling us that Minnesota is socially conservative but economically liberal, which sounds a lot like West Virginia.  Wisconsin seems to be a lot like Iowa.  I think these are the states most sensitive to who the Democratic nominee is.  A nominee with good populist credibility will do well.  A nominee without it will fare poorly.  If Russ Feingold is the nominee in 2008, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will be out of reach for the Republican candidate.  On the other hand, these three states would be out of reach for Joe Lieberman or Joe Biden.

[FerrisBueller86]

South Dakota, but not North Dakota.

Why would South Dakota turn Democratic but not North Dakota?  Aren't these states pretty similar?