The next Vermonts and West Virginias

[Adlai Stevenson]

Virginia is becoming more Democratic, in 2008, if Mark Warner will be the nominee, the old heart of the Confederacy could vote for us. Similarly, I think the same trend is occuring in North Carolina, which is becoming more metro and diverse. In some Southerns states, like Mississippi and South Carolina, isn't the black population rising as more urban African-Americans from the North return to the heartland and whites leave. In Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, I think the GOP trend was evident from 1996-2004; in the last presidential election, MN moved back towards the Democrats - I think it has a long history of attachment to the party of organized labour and its politicians like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. I think Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania will remain swing states.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Actually the largest margin of victory of West Virginia since 1964 was Jimmy Carter's 1976 win over Gerald Ford, he carried it 58.07%-41.93%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Delaware would be interesting.  I think that it could become more of a bellwether, like a mini Pennsylvania, but I don't think that it is suddenly going to vote 60%-40% for whoever the GOP nominee is in 2008.  Kent and Sussex counties, which Kerry lost in 2004, account for 37% of the vote.  In 2000, they accounted for 33%.  New Castle county is obviously what keeps the state Democratic. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Why Illinois?  It is rather solidly Democratic.  The Congressional delegation changed from 10 R, 9 D to 10 D, 9 R in the 2004 elections and when Hyde retires this year the Democrats have a chance of capturing his seat, an historically conservative Illinois suburb which trended to us last election when he was re-elected by only 56%-44% after having been in Congress since 1974.

Both Illinois Senators are popular Democrats who will probably carry on being elected by wide margins; Durbin won 60%-38% in 2002 and Obama 70%-27% in 2004.  In 2008 with a Democrat running for President at the top of the ticket Durbin is ensured another victory.  He may retire in 2014 but Obama will at least run for re-election in 2010 and may be on a national ticket in 2012 or 2016. 

The Governorship is less secure but that reflects much less the state trend in national elections.  Democrats seem to have a good base here while the GOP have been traditionally weak.