Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[MissCatholic]

Steele 45
Cardin 40

Steele 45
Mfume 38

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Senator%20January%2010.htm

Ehrlich 47
O'Malley 42

Ehrlich 50
Duncan 41

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Governor%20January%2010.htm

[TheresNoMoney]

Fairly hard to believe, but we'll see what happens.

The GOP milked that phony "Oreo cookie" story for all that it was worth, and maybe that has something to do with it.

[MissCatholic]

Fairly hard to believe, but we'll see what happens.

The GOP milked that phony "Oreo cookie" story for all that it was worth, and maybe that has something to do with it.

Rule #1 - never give republicans an excuse to vote for their candidate.

[TheresNoMoney]

The last Rasmussen poll in November had Cardin beating Steele 49% to 41%, and this poll has Steele ahead of Cardin 45% to 40%. Those results are pretty baffling. I would love to see the crosstabs.

[minionofmidas]

MoE?

I also noted that they had Steele totally overtaking Cardin but not increasing his lead on Mfume much ... yet what little internals they published in that press release is all on Steele heavily increasing his share of the Black vote in the matchup vs Mfume. Something's wrong here.
 

[MissCatholic]

This would be such a blow if we lost both races.

[TheresNoMoney]

This would be such a blow if we lost both races.

Won't happen. I definitely think Cardin will win the Senate race and O'Malley has a 50% chance to beat Ehrlich.

[MissCatholic]

This would be such a blow if we lost both races.

Won't happen. I definitely think Cardin will win the Senate race and O'Malley has a 50% chance to beat Ehrlich.

it better not. i've heard steele speak a couple of times and hes stuck up bushs bottom. Rhode island is looking increasingly bad. Florida just needs to get rid of Harris and Santorum could do it. We could win Missouri, Montana, Ohio but they are all unlikely especially when we start getting close.

and to make it worse, Bob Ney could still get re-elected.

[Virginian87]

This would be such a blow if we lost both races.

Not gonna happen. 

[Moooooo]

Im pretty much speechless.  Nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to cause a swing like this. 

Maybe Im just underestimating Ehrlich and Steele as candidates...?

[TheresNoMoney]

Im pretty much speechless. 

I wouldn't worry too much. I think the poll is bogus. To have a 13% swing in less than two months when neither candidate has really started campaigning is crap.

This poll is way off from every other Maryland poll, which have all shown Cardin leading by at least 4% or 5%. I would take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

Nick, have you done any work for the Cardin campaign yet?

[Moooooo]

I did some work for him a couple months ago.  I was actually working every Friday, but I stopped towards the end of my semester because of finals and I was in the process of transfering schools.  As the campaign begins to heat up Ill give him some more of my time.

[Defarge]

Ramussmen seems to have had a bunch of outliers.  Montana earlier had a massive shift with no real explanation.  I wouldn't be surprised if this was the same.

[AuH2O]

The GOP is playing for keeps in Maryland. Right now Dems are probably hurt in the polls by virtue of their division (i.e. both primaries are contested for the Democrats, neither is contested for the GOP).

Still, it would be unwise to underestimate the GOP ticket in Maryland.

[ATFFL]

1 in 20, even in a perfect world, folks.

Also, Rasmussen is mostly doing one day flash polls, and they should always, even if you like the results, be taken with a grain of salt.

Still, a major pollster putting out good news for the GOP in Maryland has to boost some spirits.  

The only real surprise to me is Cardin dropping from 49 to 40.  I can buy Steele solidifying to 45%.  He managed to spin the Oreo story for all it was worth, as Scoonie pointed out.  Still, that should not have hurt Cardin much.  

Was there something negative about him I missed?  Mfume running a lot of negative ads?

Also, Lewis, Steele and Mfume were tied in November, so there was a decent swing in that race as well.  It is back in July that the Steele-Mfume numbers were similar to now.

[Moooooo]

The GOP is playing for keeps in Maryland.

Whatever that means?

[Moooooo]

Was there something negative about him I missed?  Mfume running a lot of negative ads?

No ads from any campaign, yet.  However, there has been a ton of stories in the Baltimore Sun and WaPo regarding the establishment trying to push Mfume out of the race.  Maybe blacks are getting fed up?

Like I said, nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to justify these numbers.

Actually now that I think about... Ehrlich and Steele have been getting a ton of good press lately.  Ehrlich recently pledged a ton of money to the Univsersity of Maryland.  He also proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  And just yesterday he agreed to spend 100 million+ on Stem Cell research.

Maybe thats it?

[TheresNoMoney]

Montana earlier had a massive shift with no real explanation.

Not true. Burns has been getting hit hard about his Abramoff connections and corruption charges for a few months now and has shown weakness for a while.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?  I have to say I'm horrified; if the Democrats can't retain open Senate seats in MN, MD and NJ, then we won't gain at all.

[Frodo]

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?  I have to say I'm horrified; if the Democrats can't retain open Senate seats in MN, MD and NJ, then we won't gain at all.

It is worrisome, I agree.  It seems that as bad off as the Democratic Party is, we haven't yet touched bottom. 

Didn't somebody say that the GOP reached its 'zenith' in terms of power and influence in the 2004 elections? 

[TheresNoMoney]

Didn't somebody say that the GOP reached its 'zenith' in terms of power and influence in the 2004 elections? 

I said something to that effect and I certainly stand by it.

[TheresNoMoney]

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?

No, of course not. The MD Senate seat will stay Democratic in 2006.

Don't let one outlier poll worry you. This poll is way, way off from every other poll.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think I said that as well.  The important thing to remember is that, in any poll in January of election year, you can depend that the result in November will be different.  I predict that Cardin will defeat Steele in the Senate race at least.  I think the GOP's zenith has come: 2006 will be our year on the Congressional level.

[TheresNoMoney]

It is worrisome, I agree.  It seems that as bad off as the Democratic Party is, we haven't yet touched bottom. 

No way, we're on the upswing my pessimistic friend.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?  I have to say I'm horrified; if the Democrats can't retain open Senate seats in MN, MD and NJ, then we won't gain at all.

Except this is the first poll showing them ahead in Maryland and all show us ahead in Minnesota and New Jersey. Actually from current signs it appears we have hardly anything to worry about in Minnesota and New Jersey.