Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[Sam Spade]

About this whole Ford/Steele thing, my point would be is that Ford has a larger base of support (in Democrats) he can tap into at present, but Tennessee demographics will hurt him expanding beyond that point. 

Simply put, the black population in Tennessee is not that big and I still don't see how Ford, from Memphis, picks up the votes in Nashville and Central Tennessee to get above 45%, above that base of support I mention.  If he was from Central Tennessee, I would be singing a different tune, obviously, but a black man from western Tennessee.  I don't think it's ever happened in the state honestly (Al can correct me if I'm wrong).

Steele has a smaller base of support in Maryland (a little over 40%), but his being black means that he has a larger potential group of voters (in the black vote), that if he somehow connects with, he can gain votes.  I personally doubt that will happen, but he seems to be a fairly smart, articulate black GOP candidate and that is a variable I haven't seen in Maryland recently at least.  Alan Keyes does not count towards that. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

We have seen most polls lean towards Democratic candidates in 2006.  This is why I am sceptical about Steele's chances in Maryland; a blue state in a blue year electing a Republican?  I can envisage Ehrlich holding on in a close race; he then could conceivably run for the Senate in 2010 if Mikulski retires. 

Someone made a point about North Dakota, but I think the difference between ND and MD is that the former is a local state; every candidate is well known there and people are generally re-elected by large margins.  MD's African American and white liberal Democratic base mean it is harder for generic Republicans to win here.  Much like in the South, where Democrats can win Governor's races but often fall short in Senate races, i.e. Inez Tenenbaum (SC 2004) 44%; and Erskine Bowles (NC 2004) 47%.  2004 was clearly a Republican year, probably unlike this one.  Therefore, I feel that Cardin, who is a generic establishment Democratic candidate, can defeat Steele in 2006.  Steele may well get between 44% and 47% in MD, but that is why I feel he is unlikely to win.

Also, at one point wasn't Rep. Chris Van Hollen meant to be running in the Democratic primary also?

[??????????]

Lets hope Maryland continues a rightward swing. This would be excellent news considering how horrible and decerpit it's become under the thumb of the Democrats.

[nick]

Also, at one point wasn't Rep. Chris Van Hollen meant to be running in the Democratic primary also?

He dropped out months ago.  He'll run in 2010.

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's just say I'm more optimistic about the Democrats holding the Senate seat than I'm of their chances to defeat Ehrlich

Once the primary is done and dusted,  perhaps Democratic polling fortunes against Steele will improve. This, of course, assumes a Cardin primary victory

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rasmussen had a tie between Hillary Clinton and Lazio right before election day 2000.

[Vasall des Midas]

One thing I'm not sure about ... if the Reps nominate a Black man, is Cardin still much more electable than Mfume? In a Cardin vs Steele race, there is always a risk for the Reps of a racist backlash in the rural parts of the state (low turnout, more likely than actually voting for the Democrat), and that's what the theory is obviously based on. But given Maryland's demographics - overwhelmingly suburban, large middle class Black population that might be swayed to vote for a Republican who's one of them against a Dem who's not - and given the fact that some of the abovementioned people might not vote in an all-Black Senate race either (it's not a presidential year after all)...
Now, if the Republican candidate were White, I'd go with Cardin...

[nick]

Ive heard that some parts of Maryland (Frederick and Eastern Shore) have a large KKK following.  Not sure if it will make much of an impact though.  Heck, Im not even sure if those people vote.

[??????????]

Ive heard that some parts of Maryland (frederick  and Eastern Shore) have a large KKK following.  Not sure if it will make much of an impact though.  Heck, Im not even sure if those people vote.

They'd probably vote Democrat. (In all seriousness) Most of those sort that I have either read or run into are very populist-liberal economically.