Finnish Presidential Election

[Huckleberry Finn]

Because any candidate did not succeed to get ovet 50 % of vote in the first round, there will be the second one in the Finnish presidential election in 29 January.

The final result of the first round.

Halonen 46.3 %
Niinistö 24.1
Vanhanen 18.6
Hautala 3.5
Soini 3.4
Kallis 2.0
Lax 1.6
Lahti 0.4


The candidates:

Tarja Halonen, the current president, a candidate of Social Democratic Party, also officially supported by the far left party, Left-Wing Alliance. From the left wing of her party.  Definitely the most leftist Finnish president ever. A former minister of foreign affairs. Had said that NATO-membership should keep as open possibility, but in current situation there is no reason to join. Social Democrats usually get about 25 % of vote in parliament elections and Left Wing Alliance about 10 percent so Halonen's popularity is extra high. I can't understand her popularity. She is not charismatic, she speaks seldom in the media. However,  people seem to see her as a protecter of the welfare state and the welfare model is supported here also by most non-socialist voters. Halonen is very popular among females and youth. She is a former gay activist though is married with male what is fairly confusing and may shock many Atlas conservatives.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarja_Halonen

Sauli Niinistö, director of the EU's European Investment Bank, former party leader and minister of finance, a candidate of the current major opposition party National Coalition.  Although his party has been traditionally conservative Niinistö is, like many current major figures of his party, more like a moderate libertarian. Strongly supported by the business. Supports Finnish membership in Nato. Would be a moderate republican or conservative democrat in US. His wife died in the car accident ten years ago. After that had a hot love affair with former Miss Finland, current minister of culture, Tanja Karpela ((pic >>>>>>>>>>>(http://index.hu/cikkepek/0505/velvet/tanja/.gdata/a0_red.jpg)
Almost died in the tsunami in Thailand. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sauli_Niinist%C3%B6

Centrist candidates Matti Vanhanen of Finnish Centre, Bjarne Kallis of Christian Democrats and Henrik Lax of Swedish People's Party have announced their support for Niinistö. Populist candidate Timo Soini hasn't announced support for any candidate yet. Greens are now supporting Halonen.

Two leftist candidates Halonen and Greens Hautala got 49.8 % of vote and it's more than likely that Halonen will win in the end, but always can hope for the miracle. If Halonen will do some dramatic mistake there is a small chance for the surprise. At least Niinistä has full support of centrists parties and this cooperation can bring dramatic eccects to the next year parliament election and possibilities of the centrist-right government coalition.
 

Issues in the second round will be focused on securiry policy especially Nato-membership and economy.

I'm very enthusiastic about the Niinistö's success and will probably join to his campaign tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

So, in other words, just because the Center Party has endorsed the Conservative candidate doesn't mean Centrists will vote for him?

[Huckleberry Finn]

So, in other words, just because the Center Party has endorsed the Conservative candidate doesn't mean Centrists will vote for him?

No, It does not, but many of them do. That won't be enough for Niinistö's victory though.

[ATFFL]

When is the second round voting?

[Huckleberry Finn]

When is the second round voting?

29 January.

BTW. Halonen got some extra attension after Conan O'Brien made some "commercials" for Halonen. It's all about Conan's idea that there is  a "resemblance" between him and president Halonen. Has anyone here seen any of those jokes? I read that Conan's reguler audience is only 6-7 million people in the USA.

Here is a link.

http://www.finlandforthought.net/?p=1072

[TB]

Tarja Halonen, Social Democratic Party
From what I know she seems to be a skilled politician and a great diplomat.
Denmark is surprisingly the most libertarian/conservative Scandinavian country at the moment.

[dazzleman]

Niinisto -- his love affair with the former Miss Finland is reason enough.

What about that really hot conservative Finnish politician?  Maybe he can appoint her to a high level cabinet postion, or as VP.

[Huckleberry Finn]

You propably mean P-N Kauppi (whose name is synonym for right-wing libertarians)

http://www.kauppi.net/

Sorry, president does not choose cabinet members in Finland.

No. He meant that girl, a former European parliament election candidate Viivi Avellan. http://www.seiska.fi/viihde/julkkiskuvat/_a820/viivi+avellan/

Viivi is not a real politician but more like a celebrity who tried to be a politician.
 
Ethelberth. I assume that you voted for Vanhanen in the first round. Who you will vote now?

 

[Huckleberry Finn]

Niinistö obviously

Niin sitä pitää!

I haven't seen any polls yet about the second round situation, but current attension has focused text messages and emails which have been sent by some far right idiots. Messages are about Halonen's "speech" in 1976 where she "had said that it would be bless to Finland if the country would join to Soviet Union" and other bullsh**t like that. Trust me, Niinistö's campaign machine hasn't involved. Negative campaigning is not a part of Finnish political culture and those "rumours" are so dump that Halonen in fact has been benefited by them.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Niinistö obviously

Niin sitä pitää!

I haven't seen any polls yet about the second round situation, but current attension has focused text messages and emails which have been sent by some far right idiots. Messages are about Halonen's "speech" in 1976 where she "had said that it would be bless to Finland if the country would join to Soviet Union" and other bullsh**t like that. Trust me, Niinistö's campaign machine hasn't involved. Negative campaigning is not a part of Finnish political culture and those "rumours" are so dump that Halonen in fact has been benefited by them.

A new poll!!!

Halonen 53 %
Niinistö 47 %

This is becoming more exciting and interesting than anyone expected. The poll shows that 80 % Centre party voters are supporting Niinistö (many of them did so even in the first round.) Also most Christian Democrats and Swedish People's Party voters will vote Niinistö as those Soini's voters who will vote in the second round. 85 % of Green voters will vote Halonen. 7 % of both Social Democrats and Conservatives are voting for candidate of thr opposite party. A typical Social Democrat who supports Niinistö is a working class male and a typical Conservative who votes Halonen is a young urban middle-class female. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This has been stickied for the duration of the election (we've got two Finnish members after all).

===

How good are polls in Finland, exactly?

[Huckleberry Finn]

This has been stickied for the duration of the election (we've got two Finnish members after all).

===

How good are polls in Finland, exactly?

Thanks Al. But maybe you should add "the poll" to the thread headline. The thread would get more attension this way.

Finnish polls are quite accurate. They usually interview about one thousand people which is about same number than typical US polls I think. As Finland has only 5 million inhabitants and US 280 million I dare to say that there are much better than US polls. That newest poll for example was based by  one thoudand interviews. I don't know about this poll, but mostly social/age groups and geographical population division have been took into account.

[M]

Niinistö sounds great. Although i would still preper Vivvi if she makes a comeback...

[WMS]

Niinisto, for this round.

[Huckleberry Finn]

THE VOTING FOR NIINISTÖ IS LIKE VOTING BUSH! I saw this comment in countrywide tv-nighchat what shows that commie youth is becoming worried. Being honest Niinistö's supporters weren't better. There was much stuff about Halonen's "communism and lesbianism".

The latest poll:

Halonen 53 %
Niinistö 47 %

No change But Niinistä has still a chance. He has done well on debats. I know several people whose view about president Halonen has become more negative and view about Niinistö more posivite. And some people who supported Halonen in the second round have probably moved to Niinistö's camp. The campaigning is now focused to crucial female and rural voters.

[Umengus]

Gallup poll (01/24-25)

sample: 1300

Halonen: 51% (-2)
Niinisto: 49% (+2)

Undecided: 33%

Election will occur sunday.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Gallup poll (01/24-25)

sample: 1300

Halonen: 51% (-2)
Niinisto: 49% (+2)

Undecided: 33%

Election will occur sunday.

Yeah..That was the great poll, but unfortunately an another one what was made only one day later got result 55 for Halonen 45 for Niinistö. Hope was kindled and then suddenly diminished A poll about two days ago got same result.

That 51/49 poll told some intresting and even incredible results when it claimed that 9 % of Left Winf Alliance voters are going to support Niinistö. I can't believe that's true. 9 % or even more of social democrats very possible but those old commies will never vote for pro-nato and pro-business Niinistö over Halonen. 

My realistic prediction is 54/46 for Halonen victory. Niinistö did well in a Wednesday's debat but failed in Thursday (I don't believe that it affected those polls.) He has also been under heavy and unfair attacks of blue collar unions. (most white collar unions are neutral and there is a lot of support for Niinistö among them. )

What really inspirits me is that cooperation of centrist-right parties has brought the possibility of centrist-right cabinet nearer.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I just returned from a local school where I casted my vote. The ballot will close in 30 minutes.

I saw two local conservative members of parliament campaigning in a downtown bar last night. It is a pretty leftist place but customers and politicians seemed to be willing to good conservations. I didn't participate because my friend didn't want to.

[Huckleberry Finn]

First results

Halonen 53.9
Niinistö 46.1

[Huckleberry Finn]

First results

Halonen 53.9
Niinistö 46.1



But Niinistö has won the Atlas Forum poll

53.8
46.2

[Huckleberry Finn]

The member of the parliament who I saw in the pub last night is on TV. No signs of hangover.

The situation when over 70% is counted

Halonen 52.1
Niinistö 47.9

[minionofmidas]

First results

Halonen 53.9
Niinistö 46.1



But Niinistö has won the Atlas Forum poll

53.8
46.2

Add these together, and Halonen wins, 50.05 to 49.95.

[Huckleberry Finn]

First results

Halonen 53.9
Niinistö 46.1



But Niinistö has won the Atlas Forum poll

53.8
46.2

Add these together, and Halonen wins, 50.05 to 49.95.

LOL!

Final results

Halonen 51.8
Niinistö 48.2

[afleitch]

So the Conan O Brien lookalike won then

[Huckleberry Finn]

So the Conan O Brien lookalike won then

Yep. That's a conclusion.