Peru

[they don't love you like i love you]

A few questions about the upcoming election:

1-Why is Toledo so unpopular? His approval ratings are lower than Bob Taft's!
2-Since Fujimori has been effectively barred from running will his party run anyone else?
3-If Fujimori is extradited and tried before the election, might this give a boost to Toledo's party, as it might remind people of Toledo's former status as opposition leader instead of whatever he's doing now that's made him so unpopular?
4-Who are the current frontrunners anyway?

[minionofmidas]

A few questions about the upcoming election:

1-Why is Toledo so unpopular? His approval ratings are lower than Bob Taft's!

He's governed pretty pro-American. Notice that even when he was elected, in a rerun after he had been attempted to be swindled out of an earlier win, he just barely beat disgraced ex-president, but also leftwing populist, Alan Garcia.

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No idea, but it hardly matters. Party loyalty has effectively died out in Peru. People vote pretty much exclusively for persons.

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No idea.

[YoMartin]

1) It´s hard to explain. The economy has growth at impressive rate all this years. Maybe his pro-americanism is a reason. Some corruption scandals involving his family didn´t help either. Toledo´s case made me understand that popularity is more than just about the economy growing (i.e., Kirchner in Argentina has something extra).

2) Fujimori´s "party" is all about Fujimori. It´s a personal party. It was called Cambio 90 in the 90´s, and I don´t even know if that name still exists or if they changed it.

3) Mmm... Too late for that.

4) Ollanta Humala, nut ultra-nationalist candidate, and Lourdes Flores, moderate conservative. Humala is currently leading, but I guess (I hope) he can´t get 50% in a runoff against Flores. Rumours say Humala is backed financially by Hugo Chavez, and for what I´ve read, Chavez looks pretty moderate compared to Humala... Like in Evo Morales´case, Humala is exploiting an ethnic cleavage to grow in the polls (yes, Toledo was a "cholo" too, but he´d studied in Harvard, he wasn´t a "true" member of the indigenous community), but Morales´appeal wasn´t based in a nationalist (which basically means anti-Chile) rethoric. And Humala, like Chavez, used to be a member of the military. He once even said he would enter Chile with tanks, were it necesssary. So, it´s not very promising for the region if he wins... Adding a second nut to Chavez (Morales will be much more moderate and sensible than everbody expected, I think) is certainly not good news.

[minionofmidas]

What kind of first name is "Ollanta"?
And does he have leftish platforms on domestic policy - the parallels you're drawing seem to imply that?

[M]

4) Ollanta Humala, nut ultra-nationalist candidate, and Lourdes Flores, moderate conservative. Humala is currently leading, but I guess (I hope) he can´t get 50% in a runoff against Flores. Rumours say Humala is backed financially by Hugo Chavez, and for what I´ve read, Chavez looks pretty moderate compared to Humala... Like in Evo Morales´case, Humala is exploiting an ethnic cleavage to grow in the polls (yes, Toledo was a "cholo" too, but he´d studied in Harvard, he wasn´t a "true" member of the indigenous community), but Morales´appeal wasn´t based in a nationalist (which basically means anti-Chile) rethoric. And Humala, like Chavez, used to be a member of the military. He once even said he would enter Chile with tanks, were it necesssary. So, it´s not very promising for the region if he wins... Adding a second nut to Chavez (Morales will be much more moderate and sensible than everbody expected, I think) is certainly not good news.

Basically agree. I think the Humala clone in Bolivia may well be Felipe Quispe, who could still come out against Morales from the nut-left with roadblocks, etc.

The best hope South America has right now is the strength of "Southern Cone" democratic Leftist governments- Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile. They can hopefully exert a moderating influence on the more troubled Andean governments that may share their ideology, but not their republican methods. Once the Left dominates the continent, it will become clear that the real struggle in the Andean nations today is not between Left and Right, but between Democracy and Autocracy. And then, I think, autocracy loses, not least because it blocks plans for South America integration.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So what will likely happen is Humala and Flores are the top two vote getters, and then a runoff between them, where Flores is probably the favorite? Any mainstream left candidates running well? I understand Peruvian elections can be fairly unpredictable, in fact when Fujimori was initially elected (before he established himself as quasi-dictator), didn't he beat a very popular frontrunner and former Secretary General of the UN who was assumed to have the race locked up since almost the beginning?

[YoMartin]

Ollanta? I guess some indian (I´m sorry, I don´t know the politically correct term for that in English, "native-Peruvian" sounds odd) name.

M, I agree with all you said. The best antidote for the Chavez/Humala are the quite successful governments of the southern cone. They show that the center-left can be sensible handling the economy and also avoid the personalism, nationalism and semi-authoritarianism of Chavez. I wouldn´t be so optimistic, though, about the evolution of the Andes. Morales may be a moderate, but, as you said, he will have to stand up against the extremist Quispe, and will have to appease the ethnic tensions. The conflicts between Bolivia and Chile, and Peru and Chile, are escallating, and they are a card any government in need of support may play. I don´t think there´ll ever be a war there, but... Chile is moving its army to its northern areas...

Left of the Dial, I just read a new poll today. It has Humala with 28% (he was 11% three months ago and 2% a year ago), and Flores with 25% (the same as then).  The mainstream left candidate is former President Alan García, from APRA, the only traditional peruvian party that´s still relevant. He´s been losing support in the polls and is currently in the 3rd place, with 15%. He already lost to Toledo in 2000, which is not surprising since his administration was, well, disastrous (that´s why Fujimori then looked like a good president to so many people). Former President Paniagua (I think a centrist, anti-corruption, anti-Fujimori) has 10%. Toledo´s "party" (well, a bunch a people that support him) is running some candidate with only 2%... just like Fujimori´s candidate. The worrying thing about the poll is that didn´t include rural areas, where Humala has its main electoral base. He´s running an "anti-party" / "anti-establishment" campaign and seems quite successful so far. And I guess the more Toledo, the Wall Street Journal and the other candidates criticise him, the more he grows in the polls ("hey, they´re all against me, I´m really the anti-establishment guy"). I assume Paniagua´s voters would go to Flores in a runoff, but I´m not so sure where would Garcia´s voters go to.

About Fujimori´s first election, he defeated Vargas Llosa, a writer (Nobel Prize winner, I think), who was the clear favourite. Vargas Llosa ran as a right winger and Fujimori as a populist, although, like Menem in Argentina, then he adopted the agenda of the loser candidate. I think in that election Perez de Cuellar, the guy you are refering to, also ran, but he came in 3rd. Not sure though.

[ag]

Just to clarify.

1. The latest polls have Humala leading (barely) in the first round, but still over 10% behind Flores in the second round. Though, granted, he's been growing fast - but then the other candidates only begin reacting to him. Ollanta seems to come from some local language, probably quechua - at least, there is an inca site called  Ollantaytambo.

2. Vargas Llosa hasn't (yet?) won the Nobel Prize, but he's won pretty much every important prize for Spanish-language writers (well, this might be a slight exaggeration - but only a  slight one). He is, clearly, the preeminent Peruvian writer now (if not ever). Somewhat unusually for a major Latin American writer (though the late Mexican Nobel winner Octavio Paz was another example) he is, indeed, not a leftist, but a liberal democrat (in the non-U.S. sense of the word - i.e., a "rightist" to the leftists).

3. If I get it right, the only party with real following over time is ARPA - of course, a lot of it is personal loyalty to Garcia. Garcia was a very young man (only 35)  when he became Peru's president in 1985 - few people other than his most loyal followers characterize his presidency as anything other than a disaster, but the guy sure is charismatic. I guess, he is driven by an urge for political rehabilitation.

4. It's hard to say, what makes Toledo so unpopular. The economy has been doing great, the insurgency has been kept under control, but the old excesses of Fujimori's regime have been dealt with (for instance, those convicted in military trials of questionable legality are being retried in civillian courts). One can't even say that he is unpopular because of his "pro-American" positions (are they really particularly pro-American? Non-sociallist would be a better description), since he is not even personally popular among pro-American liberals who like what has been happening to the country - they refuse to give him credit for it. I guess, he's been badly tone deaf (hey, he's appointed as his Prime-Minister a guy by the name of Roberto Dañino - what would you think of a Secretary of State Robert Damaging ). A lot of what is going wrong about him has been embodied in his (toll, white, blond, Belgian) wife - apparently she's made a point of being consistently obnoxious in public. At least, she comes up in every conversation with Peruvians. Otherwise, they seem unable to formulate what is really wrong about the guy, except that he is a disaster. I guess, the country likes its leaders strong (Garcia-Fujimori style).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Ollanta? I guess some indian (I´m sorry, I don´t know the politically correct term for that in English, "native-Peruvian" sounds odd) name.

Just say Native American. After all it's still South America. The reason I hate the term Indian is not any PC reasons but because they aren't Indians. They don't live anywhere near India.

Left of the Dial, I just read a new poll today. It has Humala with 28% (he was 11% three months ago and 2% a year ago), and Flores with 25% (the same as then).  The mainstream left candidate is former President Alan García, from APRA, the only traditional peruvian party that´s still relevant. He´s been losing support in the polls and is currently in the 3rd place, with 15%. He already lost to Toledo in 2000, which is not surprising since his administration was, well, disastrous (that´s why Fujimori then looked like a good president to so many people). Former President Paniagua (I think a centrist, anti-corruption, anti-Fujimori) has 10%. Toledo´s "party" (well, a bunch a people that support him) is running some candidate with only 2%... just like Fujimori´s candidate. The worrying thing about the poll is that didn´t include rural areas, where Humala has its main electoral base. He´s running an "anti-party" / "anti-establishment" campaign and seems quite successful so far. And I guess the more Toledo, the Wall Street Journal and the other candidates criticise him, the more he grows in the polls ("hey, they´re all against me, I´m really the anti-establishment guy"). I assume Paniagua´s voters would go to Flores in a runoff, but I´m not so sure where would Garcia´s voters go to.

Hmm, this actually sounds a lot like Atlasian elections. Lots of parties but that doesn't really effect voting, and all sides are fractured badly.

Also, how much influence should what's left of the Shining Path have on the election in rural areas? Even though they are no serious threat to the government anymore, they could still disrupt elections in rural areas pretty well, which was their specialty.

About Fujimori´s first election, he defeated Vargas Llosa, a writer (Nobel Prize winner, I think), who was the clear favourite. Vargas Llosa ran as a right winger and Fujimori as a populist, although, like Menem in Argentina, then he adopted the agenda of the loser candidate. I think in that election Perez de Cuellar, the guy you are refering to, also ran, but he came in 3rd. Not sure though.

Still, Fujimori was a real real dark horse though, wasn't he? What I heard the theory for his upset victory was lots of the Natives just voted for him because he wasn't Spanish.

[YoMartin]

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That´s certainly good news. I couldn´t find any recent runoff polls.

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That´s true. I could add Carlos Fuentes, maybe a bit to the left of those two. And, a few decades ago, Jorge Luis Borges was a conservative, of libertarian leanings ("someday we´ll deserve not to have governments at all").

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Yep, APRA (american popular revolutionary alliance, as I recall) was founded decades ago by Haya de la Torre. Until the 1980´s it was clearly a left wing party, but now it has moderated its positions a lot. Third Way kind of thing, I´d say. All the other parties (except maybe Flores´ christian-democrats) are organizations based around some leader.

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And I think there was some corruption scandal that involved her.

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I think Sendero Luminoso is not relevant anymore. Actually, the only rural unrest was organised by a few of Humala´s relatives, that seem even more extreme than him (or dumber to choose their means, at least). They led a very racist (anti-white) movement. I think they are in jail now.

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Could be, but I really don´t know. I guess it had more to do with his populist style against a more conservative (and definitely middle class, white) Vargas Llosa.

[YoMartin]

Vargas Llosa wrote an article in an argentine paper today (http://www.lanacion.com.ar/opinion/nota.asp?nota_id=773706&origen=ranking). I agree with him when he criticises Chavez and Humala for their nationalism and anti-white racism, but he´s just too arrogant for me to like him. No wonder why an outsider like Fujimori beat him.

[ag]

I just talked to a Peruvian colleague about Toledo. In his view, people hate the man, but like what he is doing. The guy is just notorious for misjudging the mood and lack of charizma.  My colleague believes that were he to resign in favor of an aide, the substitute would stand a decent chance of being reelected. I don't know whether to believe this, of course.

[YoMartin]

The most recent poll (Datum, 19/12) has Flores at 26% (no change) and Humala at 25% (up 3%). The chances of Garcia (14%) and Paniagua (11%) of getting to the second round seem very low at this point. As Ag said in an earlier post, Flores would be the winner in a runoff against Humala (he would beat Garcia, but that´s an unlikely scenario).

So, we´ll have either a second female president or a second native-american president in the region (or, more remotely, a second presidency by Garcia or Paniagua...). Anyone knows what´s going on in Mexico right now? I´ve lost track of that race.

[ag]

There were a couple of polls out yesterday, but I don't have the results with me. There was a holiday break of campaigning ordered by the Elections' Commission until this week (candidates were even not allowed to attend any public functions or talk to the journalists), so things are barely restarting now. During the break Obrador once again seems to have opened a lead (in the Reforma poll he has 34%), and Calderon fell off somewhat (I think he has 28% - I'd have to check), though still in the second place. Regionally, Calderon still leads in the North and Northwest, and Obrador leads in the center (and now also in the South). The decided registered voters subsample give Obrador a slightly higher lead (40% to 30% for Calderon). Anyway, this comes after a month of no campaigning and is still far too early - the election is not until July. Think of all of this as May polling in the US.

I'll report the detailed poll results tonight or tomorrow.

[YoMartin]

Interesting that PRI remains third. Probably because Lopez Obrador´s style ressembles a lot that of the old PRI, and it´s hitting its base. I would have liked an agreement between Castañeda and Mexico Posible, making things more difficult to Lopez Obrador from the left, but now´s too late. I really wouldn´t know what to vote in this election.

[ag]

Interesting that PRI remains third. Probably because Lopez Obrador´s style ressembles a lot that of the old PRI, and it´s hitting its base. I would have liked an agreement between Castañeda and Mexico Posible, making things more difficult to Lopez Obrador from the left, but now´s too late. I really wouldn´t know what to vote in this election.

Part that, part the Madrazo reputation and what he's done to PRI leaders (to show how bad things are, Sonora governor Bours just had to state in public that he remains in PRI after meeting with campaign head for Calderon - he followed that statement by immediately saying that he is "open to dialogue" with all parties, and explicitlyu refusing to endorse his own party's candidate for presidency - how about a Republican governor of Ohio refusing to endorse the Republican presidential candidate after the Convention!). Apparently, in the next few weeks we should expect a collective resignation of a few dosen congressmen associated with the teacher's union from the PRI congressional caucus.

By the way, there is no Mexico Posible anymore (sorry for the bad pun) - it didn't get 2% at the last election and was disbanded. You confuse them with Convergencia. Unfortunately, both Convergencia and PT joined up with PRD endorsing Lopez Obrador (though after much discussion).  PVEM ("greens") joined up with PRI and endorsed Madrazo.

There are currently two minor parties not in a coalition - these are new parties, and the first time a party runs it has to get 2% with its own candidate. The first one is Panal (Partido Nuevo Alianza). It has been taken over by the teacher's union head Elba Gordillo (she's been finally kicked out of PRI), who ordered a lieutenant, a Congressman by the name Campa to run on the platform of undermining Madrazo in every way possible. As the papers joked about his candidacy, El ba.

The second one is Alternativa Social Democratica y Campesina. This party is fast becoming a joke. The party was the first one to nominate a candidate - a seemingly nice and moderate woman by the name Patricia Mercado. Unfortunately for her and the party's founders in the search of populist appeal they added "y Campesina" to the party's name and the "corriente campesino" of some purchasable village leaders to the party structure. Well, the purchasable guys got purchased by somebody else: Victor Gonzalez Torres, or Dr. Simi - the owner of "Farmacias Similares", a chain of fake farmacies, selling "similar" drugs, which have never been approved by any regulator. He has offered to inject the party with 10 mln dollars of his own money, if they nominate him instead. He runs on one plank: forcing the Social Security Institute to purchase his drugs for government clinics (the Institute has consistenly offerred him to do the clinical trials and the normal approval process - of course, he doesn't want to). Well, now the "corriente campesino" has submitted an alternative application  to the electoral commission - it's not clear anyone will be registered. It should be added, that "Dr. Simi" is an uncle of the leader of the "Greens" (PVEM). As a result, the main condition of the PVEM alliance with PRI is that the PRI congressional faction has undertaken to push for approving his snake oil substitutes for drugs (to its credit, PAN refused the bargain when approached).

As for the Obrador's problems on the left - his main problem are the Zapatistas, who have started actively campaigning against him nationwide. Now they note, that many of Obrador's campaign aids were high officials in the PRI governments of Salinas and Zedillo, responsible for trying to suppress their innitial uprising.

[YoMartin]

New polls suggest Humala may be trailing Flores by 10 (or more) points.

For those who can read in spanish, here´s an article -from a center left newspaper- comparing Humala to... Hitler: http://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/sociedad/3-62271-2006-01-29.html

[Frodo]

Humala Has Four-Point Advantage in Peru

March 24, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Ollanta Humala heads to next month’s presidential election in Peru as the frontrunner, according to a poll by UNI. 28.8 per cent of respondents would vote for the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) candidate in the first round.

Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PPC) is second with 24.8 per cent, followed by former president Alan García of the American Revolutionary People’s Alliance (APRA) with 16.3 per cent, former head of state Valentín Paniagua of Popular Action (AP) with 5.3 per cent, and Martha Chávez of New Majority (NM) with 3.8 per cent.

The presidential election is scheduled for Apr. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on May 7.

[ag]

The first round of presidential elections is a hot 3-way race. Humala is almost certainly in the lead (exit polls 30%, actual count 28% so far), Flores and Garcia disputing the second spot w/ 24-26% each.  The 2nd round will be interesting.

But the congressional elections are almost equally interesting. If I get it right, it is PR or semi-PR w/ a 4% barrier. The exit polls show the following (still no official results):

Asociacón Popular Revolucionaria Americana (APRA, Garcia's party) 20.7%
Unión por Peru (Humala) 17.7%
Unidad Nacional (Flores) 17.1%
Alianza por el Futuro (Fujimori's supporters) 12.9%
Frente del Centro (supporters of ex interim President Paniagua) 8.6%
Perú Posible (supporters of the ougoing President Toledo) 4.2%

Other 16 parties do not seem to be passing the 4% threshold

[YoMartin]

Big question remains: can Flores defeat Humala in the runoff? Well, Humala has polled rather poorly (28%) for a divisive candidate with serious aspirations of getting +50%. Alan Garcia would have certainly beat him easily (all of Flores votes would go to Garcia, or at least not to Humala), but it´s still not clear whether Flores can get Garcia´s votes.

BTW, Vargas Llosa is making big statements against Humala, which are probably nothing but enhancing his chances of victory...

[ag]

Big question remains: can Flores defeat Humala in the runoff? Well, Humala has polled rather poorly (28%) for a divisive candidate with serious aspirations of getting +50%. Alan Garcia would have certainly beat him easily (all of Flores votes would go to Garcia, or at least not to Humala), but it´s still not clear whether Flores can get Garcia´s votes.

BTW, Vargas Llosa is making big statements against Humala, which are probably nothing but enhancing his chances of victory...

It's going to be a difficult election. Has Garcia conceded? If yes, is he going to endorse anyone?

Vargas Llosa's statements are non-news. What is he supposed to do, endorse Humala? And keeping silent is not an option he'd consider.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've read that Garcia was in second? Any final totals?

[ag]

W/  77.75% counted, Garcia is actually 2nd, which, probably, means President Garcia.

Ollanta Humala 29.94 %
Alan García 24.95 %
Lourdes Flores 24.37%

There is a log in English in British Columbia of all places : http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/

[YoMartin]

Wow, a couple of hours ago Lourdes seemed safe. The good news is now we know Humala won´t be president. The bad news... well, just check Garcia´s record as president. But I admit he appears to have changed to a much more moderate brand of socialdemocracy. And know we know left/populist parties are more able to adress economic reform than right wing parties with no ties to labor unions, peasants, etc.

W/  77.75% counted, Garcia is actually 2nd, which, probably, means President Garcia.

Ollanta Humala 29.94 %
Alan García 24.95 %
Lourdes Flores 24.37%

There is a log in English in British Columbia of all places : http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm rooting for Garcia. Humala sounds like bad news from the article I read today. He was a described as very "law and order" military type (that type of leader doesn't have a great record in Latin America) and was attacked by protestors over supposed abuses in his record in his campaign against the Shining Path and was denounced by protestors as "Murderer!" and "You're another Chavez!" Does that mean Chavez is unpopular in other South American countries then?

Hopefully Garcia comes in second. But even if he doesn't, I'd have to support Flores over Humala. It also sounds like Flores would easily beat Humala. The article mentioned women are usually considered far more honest in Peru, and she actually even looks like a very nice woman, while Humala just looks cold. Garcia apparentely doesn't have a great record as president, so I don't know about that. But he's still my favorite.