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Author Topic: Peru  (Read 12866 times)
ag
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2006, 10:43:15 PM »

Actually, the ranking is:

Humala - awful, disastrous, run-away-from-the-country-if-you-still-can "news".
Garcia - very bad news, that would be considered disastrous unless compared w/ Humala.
Flores - marginally bad "news", that would be considered quite bad, unless compared to the other two.

Outgoing pres. Toledo - the best "news" the country has had in a long time or is likely to have in the forseeble future, but they all hate him.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #26 on: April 11, 2006, 02:14:17 AM »

Good. Tongue
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Bono
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« Reply #27 on: April 11, 2006, 07:13:19 AM »

How come two nutjobs get to the second round...
Wait, this is LAtin AMerica, I shouldn't be too surprised.
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YoMartin
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« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2006, 08:39:30 AM »

I'm rooting for Garcia. Humala sounds like bad news from the article I read today. He was a described as very "law and order" military type (that type of leader doesn't have a great record in Latin America) and was attacked by protestors over supposed abuses in his record in his campaign against the Shining Path and was denounced by protestors as "Murderer!" and "You're another Chavez!" Does that mean Chavez is unpopular in other South American countries then?

Hopefully Garcia comes in second. But even if he doesn't, I'd have to support Flores over Humala. It also sounds like Flores would easily beat Humala. The article mentioned women are usually considered far more honest in Peru, and she actually even looks like a very nice woman, while Humala just looks cold. Garcia apparentely doesn't have a great record as president, so I don't know about that. But he's still my favorite.

Yeah, Humala is a disaster. I think most of those allegations arenīt true, but still heīs a terrible option. Ok, when you come to power (and you donīt have Chavezīs oil revenues) you need to moderate your positions, but Humala is certainly nationalist-authoritarian and very unpredictable.

Chavez is a polarizing figure in South America, but (except for Evo Morales) all presidents distance themselves clearly from Chavez. Alan Garcia, a center-left candidate, was very, very critical of Chavez during the campaign. Humala was the only candidate seemingly favoring Chavez, and couldnīt even break 30%.

Flores-Humala would be very tied. Humala is polarizing, but Lourdes is seen as an upper class candidate, so I donīt see how she could get most of Alanīs votes.
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ag
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« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2006, 10:31:25 AM »

A necessary observation should be made here. Garcia is a left-winger (and one of the worst former presidents in Peruvian history) . Humala is a LatAm populist or National Sociallist. He is a former officer, who participated in coup attempts and whose nationalism is a lot clearer than his sociallism. In  Europe those of Chavez-Humala type are considered ultra-right, not left. His closest ideological parallel in Europe would be something like Le Pen.
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WMS
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« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2006, 12:14:37 PM »

Actually, the ranking is:

Humala - awful, disastrous, run-away-from-the-country-if-you-still-can "news".
Garcia - very bad news, that would be considered disastrous unless compared w/ Humala.
Flores - marginally bad "news", that would be considered quite bad, unless compared to the other two.

Outgoing pres. Toledo - the best "news" the country has had in a long time or is likely to have in the forseeble future, but they all hate him.

How very Latin American. Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2006, 05:12:35 AM »

A necessary observation should be made here. Garcia is a left-winger (and one of the worst former presidents in Peruvian history) . Humala is a LatAm populist or National Sociallist. He is a former officer, who participated in coup attempts and whose nationalism is a lot clearer than his sociallism. In  Europe those of Chavez-Humala type are considered ultra-right, not left. His closest ideological parallel in Europe would be something like Le Pen.
Haider or Fortuyn are better fits for Chavez, actually. Smiley
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YoMartin
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« Reply #32 on: April 12, 2006, 08:22:09 AM »

A necessary observation should be made here. Garcia is a left-winger (and one of the worst former presidents in Peruvian history) . Humala is a LatAm populist or National Sociallist. He is a former officer, who participated in coup attempts and whose nationalism is a lot clearer than his sociallism. In  Europe those of Chavez-Humala type are considered ultra-right, not left. His closest ideological parallel in Europe would be something like Le Pen.
Haider or Fortuyn are better fits for Chavez, actually. Smiley

As I see it, the main issue on Haider and Fortuynīs plattform was xenophobia (or anti-immigration, at least), which is not a topic on Chavezīs "programme" (who would emigrate to Venezuela?). Chavez is a third world nationalist. In this day, nationalism is associated to the left, but it could go either way...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2006, 05:50:12 AM »

I was thinking in terms of personal style, mostly.
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ag
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« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2006, 08:55:50 PM »

Some polling for the Peruvian round 2.

Apoyo Opinion has published its polling for May 3-5. Apparently, they were closest to predicting the first round, though they did understate Humala's vote. In any case, here it is:

Nationwide 2000 voter sample in 175 districts of 113 localities in 77 provinces (I gather, Peru has smallish provinces Smiley ). MOE 2.2%

If today there was the second round, whom would you vote for?

Alan Garcia 44%
Ollanta Humala 34%
Blank/spoiled ballot 14%
Did not indicate 8%

Of those who chose the candidate
Alan Garcia 57%
Ollanta Humala 43%

In Lima

Alan Garcia 42%
Ollanta Humala 37%
Blank/spoiled ballot 13%
Did not indicate 8%

In Rest of the Country

Do you have a positive or negative opinion of Hugo Chavez?

Negative 61%
Positive 17%
Did not specify 8%
Don't know him 14%

Do you have a positive or negative opinion of Evo Morales?

Negative 41%
Positive 23%
Did not specify 10%
Don't know him 26%

Should there be a debate before round 2?

Yes 91%
No 7%
Did not specify 2%

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WMS
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« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2006, 04:19:40 PM »

Do you have a positive or negative opinion of Hugo Chavez?

Negative 61%
Positive 17%
Did not specify 8%
Don't know him 14%

Do you have a positive or negative opinion of Evo Morales?

Negative 41%
Positive 23%
Did not specify 10%
Don't know him 26%

Hmm...interesting...
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Frodo
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« Reply #36 on: May 16, 2006, 01:07:58 PM »

I suppose I am a little out of the loop here, but did the elections in Peru already take place, and if so what were the results?  Who won? 
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Frodo
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« Reply #37 on: May 16, 2006, 01:10:47 PM »

Never mind -I just found out from Wiki:

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Frodo
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« Reply #38 on: May 29, 2006, 06:01:03 PM »

Humala Gains on Garcia in Peru Presidential Poll, Apoyo Says

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Peruvian Nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala gained on frontrunner Alan Garcia in an opinion poll ahead of the country's June 4 presidential run-off vote.

Backing for Garcia slipped to 55 percent from 56 percent a week ago, while Humala rose to 45 percent from 43 percent, Lima- based polling firm Apoyo Opinion y Mercado said in an e-mail statement. The May 23-26 nationwide poll of 2,000 registered voters, which is based on valid votes, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
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ag
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« Reply #39 on: May 29, 2006, 06:26:18 PM »

Humala Gains on Garcia in Peru Presidential Poll, Apoyo Says

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Peruvian Nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala gained on frontrunner Alan Garcia in an opinion poll ahead of the country's June 4 presidential run-off vote.

Backing for Garcia slipped to 55 percent from 56 percent a week ago, while Humala rose to 45 percent from 43 percent, Lima- based polling firm Apoyo Opinion y Mercado said in an e-mail statement. The May 23-26 nationwide poll of 2,000 registered voters, which is based on valid votes, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

I love the headliners. Correct headline: no statistically signifficant movement in poll.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #40 on: June 04, 2006, 08:03:55 AM »

Voting is today, right? Any recent polls?
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Bono
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« Reply #41 on: June 04, 2006, 08:07:56 AM »

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.
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ag
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« Reply #42 on: June 04, 2006, 10:13:11 AM »

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.
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Bono
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« Reply #43 on: June 04, 2006, 11:31:53 AM »

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.

He seems preferably to an extremist leftist of the likes of Morales.
Of course, I understand how you might see it differently.
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ag
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« Reply #44 on: June 04, 2006, 12:02:34 PM »

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.

He seems preferably to an extremist leftist of the likes of Morales.
Of course, I understand how you might see it differently.

Humala is indistinguishable from Chavez, probably more radical than Morales. I think you are confusing the candidates. The relative "moderate" is Garcia.
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Bono
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« Reply #45 on: June 04, 2006, 12:09:43 PM »

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.

He seems preferably to an extremist leftist of the likes of Morales.
Of course, I understand how you might see it differently.

Humala is indistinguishable from Chavez, probably more radical than Morales. I think you are confusing the candidates. The relative "moderate" is Garcia.

Well, Wiki says Humala is from a liberal centrist party, while Garcia is from an extreme left party.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #46 on: June 04, 2006, 12:12:50 PM »

No. Humala looks much more like a throwback to the age of traditional nationalistic South American caudillos than either Morales or even Chavez. Which is what Bono finds attractive about him.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #47 on: June 04, 2006, 12:13:21 PM »

Any polls?
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Bono
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« Reply #48 on: June 04, 2006, 12:15:08 PM »

No. Humala looks much more like a throwback to the age of traditional nationalistic South American caudillos than either Morales or even Chavez. Which is what Bono finds attractive about him.

I don't find any of them "attractive". THe candidate I liked came in third in the first round.
THis is simply a choice between the lesser of two evils.
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Colin
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« Reply #49 on: June 04, 2006, 03:18:37 PM »

No. Humala looks much more like a throwback to the age of traditional nationalistic South American caudillos than either Morales or even Chavez. Which is what Bono finds attractive about him.

I don't find any of them "attractive". THe candidate I liked came in third in the first round.
THis is simply a choice between the lesser of two evils.

Yes and that lesser evil is Garcia. Humala is insane and a little Chavez. I have to agree that he is possibly even more radical than Evo Morales.
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