Peru

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit polls give a lead to Garcia

[Frodo]

Moderate leads Peru presidential election

By MONTE HAYES
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

LIMA, Peru -- A sampling of ballots showed moderate leftist Alan Garcia leading fiery nationalist Ollanta Humala Sunday in a presidential runoff deciding whether Peru tilts into Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's orbit or maintains free-market policies.

The Apoyo polling firm said that a statistical projection based on a sampling of ballots nationwide gave Garcia 52.9 percent of the vote compared to 47.1 percent for Humala. The sampling had a margin of error of about 1 percentage point, the firm said.

Two exit polls issued when voting ended also gave Garcia the lead, though pollsters cautioned that some people might be hesitant to reveal they had voted for Humala because of heavy criticism of him in the media.

[minionofmidas]

With 84.0% of precincts counted, Garcia leads Humala, 54.7 to 45.3. It's bound to become closer as the remaining precincts come in, but it's almost impossible to win for Humala now.
Turnout is 89.0% ... do they have compulsory voting? Incomplete voter registers? Or was turnout really that high?

There's some massive regional divides between Lima and the northwest on the one hand, and the south and east on the other:


First figure is percentage of precincts processed, second figure is Garcia's share of the vote.
Tumbes 97.8% 53.4%
Piura 86.3% 58.6%
Lambayeque 97.1% 61.4%
La Libertad 84.0% 73.7%
Ancash 81.5% 55.0%
Lima 96.3% 62.2% *
Callao 97.5% 67.9%
Ica 86.7% 59.8%
Pasco 58.1% 59.0% (inland from Lima)
Ucayali 80.2% 52.0% (even further inland)
Moquequa 84.1% 50.2% (far south)
Peruvians abroad 32.3% 65.0%

Cajamarca 59.1% 47.8%
Amazonas 60.4% 43.9%
San Martin 72.4% 43.4%
Loreto 66.2% 45.3%
Huanuco 73.0% 39.7%
Junin 81.6% 38.5%
Huancavelica 45.8% 27.1%
Ayacucho 56.3% 19.1%
Apurimac 61.1% 28.9%
Cusco 68.5% 30.1%
Madre de Dios 87.3% 42.7%
Puno 83.1% 32.2%
Arequipa 90.4% 36.2%
Tacna 95.8% 39.1%

* Lima Province is so big that it makes up 34.7% of precincts, 39.9% of processed precincts so far, 39.5% of valid votes so far, 44.9% of Garcia's votes, 33.0% of Humala's votes, and 102.4% of Garcia's lead - ie Humala is just barely ahead outside of Lima province.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are there any regional results of the last Presidential election available online? Just wondering if Humala took most of Toledo's old voters or not...

[ag]

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.

He seems preferably to an extremist leftist of the likes of Morales.
Of course, I understand how you might see it differently.

Humala is indistinguishable from Chavez, probably more radical than Morales. I think you are confusing the candidates. The relative "moderate" is Garcia.

Well, Wiki says Humala is from a liberal centrist party, while Garcia is from an extreme left party.

If Humala is from a "liberal, centrist" party, then so is Fidel Castro.

[ag]

Yes, they do have compulsory voting in Peru. The candidate percentages they report, though, are of the number of valid ballots. In addition to the 11% that didn't show up, another 8.6% have cast blank ballots.

[ag]

Are there any regional results of the last Presidential election available online? Just wondering if Humala took most of Toledo's old voters or not...

I will have  to search for 2001 results, but from what I here most of Toledo vote was going to Garcia, not to Humala - the lesser evil thing.

[ag]

Here is the comparison of 2001 and 2006 results by Garcia in the 2nd round (in 2001, of course, his opponent was Toledo). Note that all percentages are from the number of valid votes (because of compulsory voting, there are a lot of blanc ballots that don't count - in this election, so far, these are 8.6% of the total). The first number (before Garcia's name) is the 2006 result, the second (after the name) is the 2001 result. Note, that while in many places in the interior the Toledo vote seems to have gone to Humala, Lima is another matter: it may be the first time Garcia actually won Lima, and he did win it decisively this time.  Overall, "in the bush", where Garcia has always been weak, there is a swing further away from him, but there is a massive swing towards him around Lima, and even in the cities like Arequipa and Cusco where he's done bad last time he did improve, if slightly.

La Libertad 73.7% Garcia 71.8%
Callao 67.9% Garcia 53.8%
Peruvians abroad 65.0% Garcia ?
Lima 62.2% Garcia 47.8%
Lambayeque 61.4% Garcia 55.0%
Ica 59.8% Garcia 57.3%
Pasco 59.0% Garcia 44.5%
Piura 58.6% Garcia 56.3%
Ancash 55.0% Garcia 40.7%
Tumbes 53.4% Garcia 54.2%
Ucayali 52.0% Garcia 47.3%
Moquequa 50.2% Garcia 46.3%
Cajamarca 47.9% Garcia 50.7%
Loreto 45.3% Garcia 30.2%
Amazonas 43.9% Garcia 48.3%
San Martin 43.4% Garcia 51.0%
Madre de Dios 42.7% Garcia 46.0%
Huanuco 39.7% Garcia 39.0%
Tacna 39.1% Garcia 49.9%
Junin 38.5% Garcia 40.6%
Arequipa 36.2% Garcia 33.1%
Puno 32.2% Garcia 34.8%
Cusco 30.1% Garcia 29.2%
Apurimac 28.9% Garcia 37.8%
Huancavelica 27.1% Garcia 30.5%
Ayacucho 19.1% Garcia 32.2%

[Bono]

From the wiki articles, Humala seems the best candidate.

Only if you really, passionately, to a colic, hate Peru. Both are awful, but Humala is especially so.

He seems preferably to an extremist leftist of the likes of Morales.
Of course, I understand how you might see it differently.

Humala is indistinguishable from Chavez, probably more radical than Morales. I think you are confusing the candidates. The relative "moderate" is Garcia.

Well, Wiki says Humala is from a liberal centrist party, while Garcia is from an extreme left party.

If Humala is from a "liberal, centrist" party, then so is Fidel Castro.

I'm just going by what wikipedia says, and according to them, Union for Peru is a centrist liberal party.
Of course, now I've been convinved that Garcia is marginally better.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, they do have compulsory voting in Peru. The candidate percentages they report, though, are of the number of valid ballots. In addition to the 11% that didn't show up, another 8.6% have cast blank ballots.

Didn't spot that.

[minionofmidas]

I assume that Garcia is a native of La Libertad province?

[ag]

I assume that Garcia is a native of La Libertad province?

I don't think so. Most likely has to do with the traditional strength of APRA there. Probably, worth checking.

[ag]

Following up. (Dis)believing Wikipedia (at least, its Spanish version), the APRA party's founder Raúl Haya de la Torre (1895 - 1979) was born in Trujillo.  That should explain things.

[minionofmidas]

I assume that Garcia is a native of La Libertad province?

I don't think so. Most likely has to do with the traditional strength of APRA there. Probably, worth checking.

You're right, he's a Limeno.

He also seems to be quite tall:

[ag]

With 93.061% (sic) of precincts computed, the results so far give Garcia 53.136% (6,602,188 votes) and Humala 46.864% (5,822,879 votes). Actually, if all votes are counted (and not only the valid ones - a lot of people voted with blank and spoiled ballots) the results so far are:

Garcia 48.770%
Humala 43.013%
Blank ballots 1.036%
Spoiled ballots 7.166%
Contested ballots (to be resolved) 0.016%

[YoMartin]

Humala was in fact running under a centrist label. The thing is that he couldn´t even get enough signatures to create his own party (that was before his sudden and massive growth in the polls, of course), so former UN secretary Javier Pérez de Cuellar let him use the party label with which he had ran in a previous election. It´s true they probably have nothing in common, so I don´t know what did Humala offer Pérez de Cuellar to get the label.

Alan is a tremendously gifted public speaker, his supporters were extatic. It seems mass politics hasn´t died everywhere.

[ag]

Humala was in fact running under a centrist label. The thing is that he couldn´t even get enough signatures to create his own party (that was before his sudden and massive growth in the polls, of course), so former UN secretary Javier Pérez de Cuellar let him use the party label with which he had ran in a previous election. It´s true they probably have nothing in common, so I don´t know what did Humala offer Pérez de Cuellar to get the label.

Once the party is sold, does it matter what else had been done under the same label in the past? Did't he get it lock, stock, and barrel? Peru has only one party - APRA. The rest are just labels, without a meaning.

[YoMartin]

Humala was in fact running under a centrist label. The thing is that he couldn´t even get enough signatures to create his own party (that was before his sudden and massive growth in the polls, of course), so former UN secretary Javier Pérez de Cuellar let him use the party label with which he had ran in a previous election. It´s true they probably have nothing in common, so I don´t know what did Humala offer Pérez de Cuellar to get the label.

Once the party is sold, does it matter what else had been done under the same label in the past? Did't he get it lock, stock, and barrel? Peru has only one party - APRA. The rest are just labels, without a meaning.

True. APRA´s revival is in itself quite astonishing, since it couldn´t break 2% (or something like that) for more than a decade. Alan was quite good in placing Lourdes as the rich-right wing candidate, while placing himself at the median voter´s location. APRA´s members, without any access to state patronage in the last 15 years, surely are loving him right now...