Peru

[minionofmidas]

A few questions about the upcoming election:

1-Why is Toledo so unpopular? His approval ratings are lower than Bob Taft's!

He's governed pretty pro-American. Notice that even when he was elected, in a rerun after he had been attempted to be swindled out of an earlier win, he just barely beat disgraced ex-president, but also leftwing populist, Alan Garcia.

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No idea, but it hardly matters. Party loyalty has effectively died out in Peru. People vote pretty much exclusively for persons.

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No idea.

[minionofmidas]

What kind of first name is "Ollanta"?
And does he have leftish platforms on domestic policy - the parallels you're drawing seem to imply that?

[minionofmidas]

Good.

[minionofmidas]

A necessary observation should be made here. Garcia is a left-winger (and one of the worst former presidents in Peruvian history) . Humala is a LatAm populist or National Sociallist. He is a former officer, who participated in coup attempts and whose nationalism is a lot clearer than his sociallism. In  Europe those of Chavez-Humala type are considered ultra-right, not left. His closest ideological parallel in Europe would be something like Le Pen.

Haider or Fortuyn are better fits for Chavez, actually.

[minionofmidas]

I was thinking in terms of personal style, mostly.

[minionofmidas]

No. Humala looks much more like a throwback to the age of traditional nationalistic South American caudillos than either Morales or even Chavez. Which is what Bono finds attractive about him.

[minionofmidas]

With 84.0% of precincts counted, Garcia leads Humala, 54.7 to 45.3. It's bound to become closer as the remaining precincts come in, but it's almost impossible to win for Humala now.
Turnout is 89.0% ... do they have compulsory voting? Incomplete voter registers? Or was turnout really that high?

There's some massive regional divides between Lima and the northwest on the one hand, and the south and east on the other:


First figure is percentage of precincts processed, second figure is Garcia's share of the vote.
Tumbes 97.8% 53.4%
Piura 86.3% 58.6%
Lambayeque 97.1% 61.4%
La Libertad 84.0% 73.7%
Ancash 81.5% 55.0%
Lima 96.3% 62.2% *
Callao 97.5% 67.9%
Ica 86.7% 59.8%
Pasco 58.1% 59.0% (inland from Lima)
Ucayali 80.2% 52.0% (even further inland)
Moquequa 84.1% 50.2% (far south)
Peruvians abroad 32.3% 65.0%

Cajamarca 59.1% 47.8%
Amazonas 60.4% 43.9%
San Martin 72.4% 43.4%
Loreto 66.2% 45.3%
Huanuco 73.0% 39.7%
Junin 81.6% 38.5%
Huancavelica 45.8% 27.1%
Ayacucho 56.3% 19.1%
Apurimac 61.1% 28.9%
Cusco 68.5% 30.1%
Madre de Dios 87.3% 42.7%
Puno 83.1% 32.2%
Arequipa 90.4% 36.2%
Tacna 95.8% 39.1%

* Lima Province is so big that it makes up 34.7% of precincts, 39.9% of processed precincts so far, 39.5% of valid votes so far, 44.9% of Garcia's votes, 33.0% of Humala's votes, and 102.4% of Garcia's lead - ie Humala is just barely ahead outside of Lima province.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, they do have compulsory voting in Peru. The candidate percentages they report, though, are of the number of valid ballots. In addition to the 11% that didn't show up, another 8.6% have cast blank ballots.

Didn't spot that.

[minionofmidas]

I assume that Garcia is a native of La Libertad province?

[minionofmidas]

I assume that Garcia is a native of La Libertad province?

I don't think so. Most likely has to do with the traditional strength of APRA there. Probably, worth checking.

You're right, he's a Limeno.

He also seems to be quite tall: