German state and local elections, March 26th

[minionofmidas]

On march 26th, there'll be state elections in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz and Sachsen-Anhalt. And of course, local elections in Hessen.

I'll go dig for some polls and maybe write some profiles.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yay!

[minionofmidas]

Baden-Württemberg
CDU has always been strongest party in state elections, and governed alone throughout the late 70s and the 80s. From 92 to 96, there was a CDU-SPD coalition; there has been a CDU-FDP coalition ever since.
The election law is somewhat weird, pr without lists. (There are a no of constituencies; constituency winners are elected; parties are entitled to seats according to their share of the statewide share of the vote; the remaining seats are given to those of the party's candidates to receive the highest vote total)
State pm Erwin Teufel's departure last year (after a 14 year reign) was somewhat messy - he was more or less couped out by his crown prince of many years Günther Oettinger, who was seeing his chances to the succession decrease with every year that Teufel stayed on. Oettinger then won a ballot of party members against state (and now federal) minister of education Annette Schavan. This was the first time the CDU used a ballot of all party members for something like that, but the campaign was also quite messy.
Just like 5 years ago, the SPD will be running Ute Vogt ... who was seen as something of a rising star 5 years ago but hasn't really risen since. Still, 2001 was their first semi-decent result in well over a decade.
The FDP and Greens have usually polled above-average in Baden-Württemberg. So have far-right parties.
BaWü Greens have a reputation for moderation. There are even rumors that Oettinger might try and go for a CDU-Green coalition after the election, should the Greens poll ahead of the FDP. Gee, I hope not, but if there's any state where it's going to be tried it's Baden-Württemberg (it has been tried at the local level a number of times, sometimes it worked well, sometimes it didn't, but the Greens have suffered badly at the next election pretty much every time.)

2001 result - CDU 44.8% SPD 33.3% FDP 8.1% Greens 7.7% REP 4.4% others 1.7%
Some poll from october - CDU 45.0% SPD 30.0% FDP 8.5% Greens 8.5% Left 4.0% other 4.0% It's an Allensbach poll, so expect right-wing bias.

Rheinland-Pfalz
Fairly rural, fairly conservative actually, "carried" (not that it matters in the German election system) by the CDU in the last two federal elections, this state has, weirdly, been governed by SPD-FDP coalitions since 1991. During the first term, a SPD-Green coalition would have been possible, during the second one, a CDU-FDP coalition would have been possible, during the third term, an SPD-Green coalition would have been possible...RP does things different. Kurt Beck has been the state PM since 1994 (when Rudolf Scharping went to Bonn to become official leader of the opposition) and is personally wildly popular. Former Kohl (who is from the state, and was pm in the 70s) protegé Christoph Böhr is running for the CDU for the third time, and is not popular at all. He rather narrowly survived an attempt to depose him as state party chairman last year. Question would be whether these personal popularity issues will translate into support for party. They sure did last time around, but make no mistake, on an even field the CDU should be winning here.
Greens are quite weak. Left Party did surprisingly well in the Federals, though. SPD (western Pfalz, Nahe area) and CDU (Eifel country, especially) strongholds still map the Protestant-Catholic divide remarkably well.
Election system is the "normal", vote splitting, German kind of pr; has been since 1991.

2001 result - SPD 44.7% CDU 35.3% FDP 7.8% Greens 5.2% other 6.9% with none over 2.5%
Most recent polls (december, november)
Infratest dimap - SPD 39% CDU 37% FDP 10% Greens 6% Left 4% other 4%
Psephos - SPD 41% CDU 37% FDP 10% Greens 5% Left 3% other 4%
Both institutes have polled the state fairly regularly every couple of months, with Psephos results fairly continuously more favorable to the SPD.

Sachsen-Anhalt.
One of those German states to still do the good thing and vote every four years. Old Europe's home state.
Very volatile in state election results. Last election was at the height of FDP's popularity in the Spasspartei, Möllewelle times. Election before that had a freakishly high result for far-right DVU on a freakishly high turnout, both of which had been totally missed out on by pollsters. (In other words, loads of people that noone thought would show up to vote, did so - and voted DVU.)
CDU-FDP coalition under Wolfgang Böhmer since 2002. Not sure whom the SPD and Left are running or whether a coalition between the two is an option. Worth pointing out that from 94 to 2002 the state had first an SPD-Green and then an SPD alone minority government tolerated by the PDS, though, the socalled "Magdeburg model".

2002 results - CDU 37.3% PDS 20.4% SPD 20.0% FDP 13.3% Schill 4.5% Greens 2.0% other 2.5%
Two newest polls - one from december, one from november - are both by Infratest-dimap, so I'll give the newer with change from the older: CDU 31% (-2) SPD 30% (+5) Left 27% (+2) FDP 6% (-3) Greens 2% (-2) other 4% (no change). No idea what caused these changes or if they're real at all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Damn, Lewis bet me to it. I considered to open up a topic a while ago, but decided to wait until February then.

One of those German states to still do the good thing and vote every four years.

Actually, this will be the last time that we vote after four years. The parliament's term was changed to five years just recently.

Not sure whom the SPD and Left are running or whether a coalition between the two is an option.

The SPD candidate is the 43-year-old Jens Bullerjahn, which makes him another "rising star" I suppose. Originally a strong supporter of a close cooperation with the PDS during the 90ies, he has considerably moved to the political center in recent years. He's now criticizing the Left Party for its "populism" and "lack of realistic political alternatives" and has stated a few weeks ago that his party will seek coalition talks with the CDU first, arguing that the SPD in Saxony-Anhalt has more in common with the CDU than with the Left.

However, the SPD has deliberately avoided to formally rule out a coalition with the Left Party. And a "Red-Red coalition" is probably still popular among the SPD's more leftist members. The interesting question is what will happen if the CDU/FDP coalition loses its majority, but the CDU comes in first nevertheless. Will Bullerjahn really be willing to give up the top job and become only the junior partner under Böhmer?

The Left party's candidate is Wulf Gallert, who is claiming the post of the PM for himself, despite the fact that this is definitely not going to happen. Aside from this I have to admit that I don't know that much about him, since long-time PDS leader Petra Sitte just left fer Berlin in last year's national election.

Unfortunately, I don't think that a comeback of the DVU is totally out question, considering that this old fossil Gerhart Frey is again pumping a lot of money from his bank account into the local state party.

Two newest polls - one from december, one from november - are both by Infratest-dimap, so I'll give the newer with change from the older: CDU 31% (-2) SPD 30% (+5) Left 27% (+2) FDP 6% (-3) Greens 2% (-2) other 4% (no change). No idea what caused these changes or if they're real at all.

You already mentioned the volatile voting behaviour. It's a state with 50+% swing voters. But we have to keep in mind that opinion polls conducted in Saxony-Anhalt are subject to this volatility in the same or probably even in a stronger way.



Btw, another interesting question in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate will be whether the Left Party allies from the WASG will succeed in winning seats in the state parliaments there.

[minionofmidas]

Definitely. That'll be worth watching. Baden-Württemberg would shock me, though, that was IIRC their second weakest state last year. (I would be able to savour the irony if Baden-Württemberg of all places became the first West German state where the PDS wins seats, though. I'd love it.)

Is the Magdeburg Model still on the table as an option? Or would it have to be a coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the Magdeburg Model still on the table as an option? Or would it have to be a coalition?

Can't recall any SPD or Left politician who has proposed this recently. From the point of view of the SPD it will be either a coalition with the CDU or a (formal) coalition with the Left Party, with the CDU being the preferable option.

I think the Magdeburg model was just a way to sell a SPD/PDS quasi-coalition to the people/media/own party without entering a formal coalition in a time when coalitions between SPD and PDS were still considered to be totally out of question. We're beyond this state now.

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah, and our local elections...

2001 results statewide...notice that the election law changed between 97 and 01, and the 2001 results are weighted to reflect one man-one vote. (Since 2001 everybody has as many votes as there are seats, and some councils are larger than others, so this was necessary. Before that, it was just one vote for an unchangeable list. Also, the 5% threshold was abolished. And the length of the term was increased. :( )
for district councils, and independent cities -
Turnout 52.9 (-13.1)
SPD 38.5 (+0.5) 755 seats (-52)
CDU 38.1 (+5.1) 739 (+50)
Greens 9.1 (-1.9) 176 (-52)
FDP 5.2 (+1.2) 104 (+71)
REP 2.5 (-4.1) 52 (-67)
other parties 0.7 (-0.9) 13 (+13)
independent slates 5.8 (-0.1) 117 (+17)
Notice that the total no. of seats fell by 20.

For municipalities, and independent cities -
Turnout 53.0 (-13.0)
SPD 38.1 (no change) 5411 (-248)
CDU 37.1 (+4.3) 4835 (+468)
Greens 6.9 (-1.9) 641 (-222)
FDP 4.4 (+0.7) 479 (+213)
REP 0.9 (-1.3) 53 (-53)
other parties 0.4 (-0.8) 23 (-25)
independent slates 12.1 (-1.2) 2028 (-309)
Notice that the total no. of seats fell by 176.

Council size was previously determined by a formula that started with 9 seats for under 5000 inhabitants, 13 seats for 5000-10,000 inhabitants etc and ended with 93 seats for over ...300,000? 400,000? Anyways, only Frankfurt city and Main-Kinzig district council have 93 seats. Since the last election, councils were allowed to opt one size smaller, thence the reduction in seats. (On the district level, Groß-Gerau and Hochtaunus went one smaller, and Odenwald decided not to take the new extra seats it was due thanks to population increase. I have no overview over municipalities.) I *think* a lot more councils have decided to save some money and make it slightly harder for wingnuts to get in by now, so probably fewer seats up for grabs in 2006. I know it's been occasionally talked about in Frankfurt, but not done.

Here's the results for Frankfurt and Offenbach

Frankfurt, 93 seats
turnout 45.9% (-14.6)
CDU 38.5 (+2.2) 36 (0)
SPD 30.5 (+1.3) 28 (-1)
Greens 14.1 (-2.8) 13 (-4)
FDP 4.6 (-1.0) 4 (-1)
FAG 3.9 (+3.9) 4 (+4) anti-airport extension single issue group. Counted among the independent slates in state totals.
REP 2.7 (-3.5) 3 (-3)
PDS 2.3 (+0.7) 2 (+2)
BFF 1.1 (-0.5) 1 (+1) right-wing independent slate. Included a couple of pretty far-right guys, but the bloke on the council has proved reasonable. Name's short for "Citizens for Frankfurt"
ÖkolinX 0.9 (+0.9) 1 (+1) Jutta Ditfurth. The German Green equivalent to Dave Nellist keeping his deposit in Coventry last year. :)
Europe List 0.5 (+0.5) 1 (+1) Italian community activist Luigi Brillante. Citizens of EU countries are entitled to vote in local elections.
other 0.8 (-1.9) 0 (no change)

Offenbach, 71 seats
Turnout 40.0% (-17.1)
SPD 39.5 (+3.3) 28 (+2)
CDU 32.2 (+5.0) 23 (+3)
Greens 9.9 (-1.3) 7 (-1)
FDP 6.5 (+0.1) 5 (no change)
REP 5.1 (-5.7) 4 (-4)
FWG 3.4 (-2.4) 2 (-2) Freie Wählergemeinschaft. The standard name for independent slates. There's a national association of them by now. They've even stood in a couple of state elections, ie Bavaria, Rheinland-Pfalz.
PDS 2.8 (+0.5) 2 (+2)
Animal Rights Party 0.5 (+0.5) 0 (no change)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nellist did worse than expected in Coventry NE. Or am I missing something? Or do you mean the fact that he's still a counciller there or?...

[minionofmidas]

Nellist did worse than expected in Coventry NE. Or am I missing something? Or do you mean the fact that he's still a counciller there or?...

The fact that here's someone who once was someone in a mainstream party, though out on the extreme end, who's now got his/her own club, whom noone outside his/her hometown cares about, but who still has a small vote base and a lot of name recognition in that place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The fact that here's someone who once was someone in a mainstream party, though out on the extreme end, who's now got his/her own club, whom noone outside his/her hometown cares about, but who still has a small vote base and a lot of name recognition in that place.

Ah yes, I get it now. Makes sense. He certainly has a lot of name recognition... none of it *good* but everyone knows who he is... he's basically the only ex-Militant politician (with the obvious exception of a certain former deputy leader of Liverpool City Council...) that anyone can recognise these days. Or remember the name of. He might be up for election this year; will check the Council's site...

[minionofmidas]

And the districts bordering Frankfurt...clockwise from west...
Main-Taunus, 81 seats
Turnout 55.0 (-10.1)
CDU 44.0 (+5.6) 36 (+5)
SPD 28.7 (-0.1) 23 (0)
Greens 11.6 (-0.9) 9 (-1)
FDP 6.7 (-3.0) 6 (0)
FWG 4.8 (-2.1) 4 (-2)
REP 2.6 (-3.8) 2 (-3)
dfb 1.7 (+1.7) 1 (+1). Rightwing populist Heiner Kappel. Had been an FDP councillor for many many years before that (and his' and some followers' walkout is part of the reason for the FDP losses, o/c)

Hochtaunus, 71 (-10) seats
turnout 54.3 (-9.4)
CDU 42.2 (+2.9) 30 (-2)
SPD 27.6 (+1.0) 20 (-1)
Greens 11.8 (-1.9) 8 (-3)
FDP 9.4 (+2.0) 7 (+1)
FWG 6.1 (-1.0) 4 (-2)
REP 2.9 (-3.0) 2 (-3)

Wetterau, 81 seats
turnout 53.5 (-14.7)
CDU 41.0 (+6.7) 33 (+2)
SPD 38.8 (+0.9) 32 (-3)
Greens 7.5 (-2.1) 6 (-3)
FWG/UWG 4.9 (-1.9) 4 (-2) formerly two separate slates of independents. Fused ... like ... a decade ago.
FDP 4.0 (+0.8) 3 (+3)
NPD 3.3 (+0.2) 3 (+3)
REP 0 (-4.5) 0 (0). Not sure if this was a deal with the NPD or they just didn't find any candidates. You'll notice they do much worse in municipalities than in districts ... that's because they don't find anybody to run. In parts of rural Hessen, the Greens and even the FDP have the same problem actually.
other 0.5 (0) 0 (0)

Main-Kinzig, 93 seats
turnout 53.2 (-13.4)
SPD 40.0 (+1.5) 37 (-2)
CDU 38.1 (+5.4) 35 (+2)
Greens 8.3 (-2.0) 8 (-3)
REP 5.0 (-5.2) 5 (-5)
FDP 4.0 (+1.0) 4 (+4)
FWG 3.7 (-1.2) 3 (+3)
PDS 0.9 (+0.9) 1 (+1)
other 0 (-0.5) 0 (0)

Offenbach rural, 87 seats
turnout 50.8 (-15.6)
CDU 45.5 (+8.2) 39 (+3)
SPD 32.1 (-0.9) 28 (-4)
Greens 11.1 (-1.9) 10 (-2)
FDP 4.6 (+0.6) 4 (+4)
WG Die Bürger 3.5 (-1.3) 3 (+3) (change on FWG)
REP 3.2 (-4.0) 3 (-4)
other 0 (-0.8) 0 (0)

Groß-Gerau, 71 (-10) seats
turnout 52.3 (-13.8)
SPD 45.9 (-1.6) 33 (-8)
CDU 30.0 (+3.5) 21 (-2)
Greens 11.9 (-0.4) 8 (-3)
FDP 4.4 (+1.3) 3 (+3)
REP 4.0 (-3.3) 3 (-3)
FWG 2.0 (-0.2) 2 (+2)
PDS / OL 1.8 (+0.7) 1 (+1) OL is for Open List, ie including candidates unaffiliated with the PDS, ie, in this case, DKP members. Change is on DKP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nope, he's up for re-election in 2008. St Michael's ward (the city centre and the Hillfields area; which is a complete dump). His party used to hold all three seats in the ward; they lost one in 2004 to Labour. Odd thing is that St Martins is in Coventry South not Coventry NE (and Nellist's old seat was the former Coventry SE o/c).

[minionofmidas]

I hear that when Tony Blair was first in the Commons, he and Nellist shared an office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I hear that when Tony Blair was first in the Commons, he and Nellist shared an office.

Yeah, I heard that as well
Not sure if it's true or not, but back in those days they did try to keep new M.P's (as both were in '83) together...

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for the Rhineland-Palatinate election:

SPD 37%
CDU 37%
FDP 11%
Greens 7%
WASG 4%

[CO-OWL]

New poll for the Rhineland-Palatinate election:

SPD 37%
CDU 37%
FDP 11%
Greens 7%
WASG 4%

And the numbers for the PM candidates:
(Hypothetical, since PM is elected by the state parliament. Nevertheless good news for the SPD. Makes you wonder how the CDU would do with a decent challenger... )

Kurt Beck (incumbent SPD) 69%
Christoph Böhr (CDU): 17%


 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kurt Beck (incumbent SPD) 69%
Christoph Böhr (CDU): 17%

This doesn't surprise me a bit. Why does the CDU even allow Böhr to run again? Isn't it the third time now?

[CO-OWL]

Kurt Beck (incumbent SPD) 69%
Christoph Böhr (CDU): 17%

This doesn't surprise me a bit. Why does the CDU even allow Böhr to run again? Isn't it the third time now?

No, only the second time. As Lewis wrote Böhr narrowly won a kind of "primary" (against Peter Rauen, CDU MdB and over 60). IIRC the mayor of Ludwigshafen, Eva Lohse(?), was asked to run against Böhr but declined. Sad to say, Böhr seems to be the best candidate available.
At least when Beck retires prospects for the CDU should be much better.

(Or maybe we should ask Bernhard Vogel to make a comeback... .)

[minionofmidas]

Really? I thought it was his third run, too... Who ran in 1996?

[minionofmidas]

Don't wanna start another new three-responses thread, but Johannes Rau is dead at 75.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Really? I thought it was his third run, too... Who ran in 1996?

The German Wikipedia article about Böhr says he ran in 1996 and 2001.

After he lost the 1996 election he was deposed by the CDU, but managed to return to the top of the party just in time to be defeated again in the 2001 election.

[minionofmidas]

Really? I thought it was his third run, too... Who ran in 1996?

The German Wikipedia article about Böhr says he ran in 1996 and 2001.

After he lost the 1996 election he was deposed by the CDU, but managed to return to the top of the party just in time to be defeated again in the 2001 election.

except it doesn't actually say he ran in 96. It says he was leader of the parliamentary party up to the 96 elections and took the position again in 97. I've done a little more research, and the candidate for the pm position in 1996 was actually Johannes Gerster, who retired from politics in 1997.

By the way, here's a map of the Catholic share of RhP population in 1987:
 During the 96-01 term, over 80% of CDU MdLs were Roman Catholic.

[Middle-aged Europe]

except it doesn't actually say he ran in 96. It says he was leader of the parliamentary party up to the 96 elections and took the position again in 97. I've done a little more research, and the candidate for the pm position in 1996 was actually Johannes Gerster, who retired from politics in 1997.

So, Gerster, who had run und lost the election, deposed Böhr and took his office? And the CDU did this, because... they were so happy that Gerster had lost the election, they had to reward him somehow?

[minionofmidas]

except it doesn't actually say he ran in 96. It says he was leader of the parliamentary party up to the 96 elections and took the position again in 97. I've done a little more research, and the candidate for the pm position in 1996 was actually Johannes Gerster, who retired from politics in 1997.

So, Gerster, who had run und lost the election, deposed Böhr and took his office? And the CDU did this, because... they were so happy that Gerster had lost the election, they had to reward him somehow?

The SPD did the same thing with Scharping in 1994 in the Bundestag. Gerster did gain votes compared with the 1991 debacle. Of course that wasn't hard. Same goes for Scharping 94 compared with the 1990 debacle, of course.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD did the same thing with Scharping in 1994 in the Bundestag. Gerster did gain votes compared with the 1991 debacle. Of course that wasn't hard. Same goes for Scharping 94 compared with the 1990 debacle, of course.

I'm still wondering how the SPD managed to elevate Scharping to any position in the first place.