German state and local elections, March 26th

[Middle-aged Europe]

Don't wanna start another new three-responses thread, but Johannes Rau is dead at 75.

Yeah, that's sad... but not too unexpected after he missed his own birthday celebrations last week because of his illness.

And of all things Rau had to die on my birthday.

[minionofmidas]

My condolences.

[minionofmidas]

New polls by infratest Dimap -
Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
FDP 9%
Greens 9%
Left 4%

If the pm were directly elected, 39% would vote for pm Günther Oettinger, 33% for SPD candidate Ute Vogt. The remainder would vote for somebody else, not at all, or is undecided. Oettinger's job approval is just 37%.

Rheinland-Pfalz
SPD 42%
CDU 36%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
Left 4%

56% would prefer if the current government remained in place, 34% would prefer it were replaced, 10% aren't sure.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New polls by infratest Dimap -
Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
FDP 8%
Greens 8%
Left 4%

If the pm were directly elected, 39% would vote for pm Günther Oettinger, 33% for SPD candidate Ute Vogt. The remainder would vote for somebody else, not at all, or is undecided. Oettinger's job approval is just 37%.

FDP and Greens would both win 9% according to the poll. http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=1048166/gkqz6x/index.html


And there's also an new Infratest poll for Saxony-Anhalt
CDU: 33%
SPD: 29%
Left.PDS: 23%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 3%
Other parties (probably includes the DVU): 6%

In a direct election, incumbent Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU) would win 49% of the vote, Jens Bullerjahn (SPD) 14%, and Wulf Gallert (Left.PDS) 6%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg (IfM Leipzig):

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
WASG 2%

[minionofmidas]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg (IfM Leipzig):

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
WASG 2%

Ouch.

Who's IfM, though?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg (IfM Leipzig):

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
WASG 2%

Ouch.

Who's IfM, though?

"Institut für Meinungsforschung"... I think. One of the smaller polling firms.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, btw.
Story I'd long been wanting to tell.
Frankfurt - and many other municipalities in the state - has 16 district councils (with sod-all power) below the city level. The formula for council size is the same as for municipalities, except with a cap at 19. In practice, that means 13 of the 16 councils have 19 members, and 3 have 9. (11 of the councils represent the city area as it stood from 1928 to 1973. The other 5 are much smaller, and represent formerly independent municipalities incorporated in the 70's.) Of these, Kalbach has recently grown past 5000 inhabitants, but has opted to stay at 9 members rather than increase to 13.
Anyhow, that was the introduction...now to the story: You think 10 parties for 93 seats is a lot of parties? How about 8 parties for 19 seats?

Apart from the normal parties - CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, REP - Frankfurt's District 7 (official name Center-West, but noone uses these. Area covered is Rödelheim, Praunheim, Hausen and the Industriehof.) has long had a group called Die Rödelheimer (in the UK it'd probably be called Rödelheim Independents).
In 2000, the council's three-member Green Party had a falling out. Two of them left the Green Party but continued to sit on the council, the third did the opposite. These two now partyless councillors, with some friends, ran in 2001 as a "die farbechten" (The True Colours will do, I suppose) slate. Of course, there was also a new Green slate.
In 1997, Rödelheim Italo-German, Cosimo Viva was elected a CDU city councillor. He never felt very at home in the CDU parliamentary party, and when in 2001 he was given a not-a-chance-in-hell position on the city council CDU list, and a very-little-chance position on the district council list as an appeaser, it was the stroke that broke the camel's back. He renounced his party membership, but agreed to keep silent about it until after the elections so as not to hurt the CDU's election chances.

In the 2001 elections, the distribution of votes for the council was as follows -
SPD 34.2% - 6 seats
CDU 33.8% - 6 seats
Greens 12.4% - 2 seats
FDP 8.0% - 2 seats
Die Rödelheimer 4.6% - 1 seat
die farbechten 3.1% - 1 seat
REP 3.0% - 1 seat
BFF 0.9% - no seats
...and Viva received just enough personal votes to climb up several spots on the CDU list, to 6th place. He took his seat and sat as an Independent throughout the term (so there were just 5 CDU people).

die farbechten will run a joint slate with WASG and PDS this time around (with the current councillor at no.1). Viva is not running for reelection.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rödelheim Independents is possible (ala East Cleveland Independents, South Shropshire Independents etc, etc...) but it might also be the Rödelheim Residents Association.

[minionofmidas]

Rödelheim Independents is possible (ala East Cleveland Independents, South Shropshire Independents etc, etc...) but it might also be the Rödelheim Residents Association.

I always felt "Residents Association" has a very rightwing sound. For most of the 97-01 period, the council was run by a SPD-Green-Rödelheimer coalition. After the Green chaos, it was run by an SPD-Rödelheimer coalition that had to rely on outside support. (Granted, that's probably also the reason their vote almost halfed in 2001.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I always felt "Residents Association" has a very rightwing sound.

There's a reason for that...
Until the Poll Tax they were usually called Ratepayers IIRC. Some old duffer on Shropshire County Council (who is now, quite improbably, a LibDem) tried to keep that badge alive for a while and ran as a "Council Tax Payer"... which just doesn't have the same ring to it does it?
There are some very strong Residents Associations in Surrey.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In which case, Rödelheim Independents is much more likely. O/c other expressions might be used (Progressive Independents, Community Group, Idle Toad...)

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Rhineland-Palatinate poll (Psephos, 02/28)

SPD 42%
CDU 38%
FDP 8%
Greens 5%
WASG 2%


New Saxony-Anhalt poll (IWD, 02/28)

CDU 38.1 %
SPD 26.9 %
Left.PDS 19.2%
FDP 6.4%
Greens 3.4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And new Infratest polls were released today:


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 46%
SPD 29%
Greens 10%
FDP 8%
WASG 3%


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 42%
CDU 35%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
WASG 4%


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 27%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%


Comments: Still looks like a easy victory for the CDU/FDP coalition in Baden-Württemberg and the SPD/FDP coalition in Rhineland-Palatinate. Wouldn't have expected something different. In Baden-Württemberg, it seems even possible that the CDU will win a majority of the seats on its own. And the Left Party allies from the WASG seem to be in trouble.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU still leads the SPD by a comfortable margin. However, because of a relatively weak performance of the FDP in the opinion polls (compared to the 13% they got four years ago), the CDU/FDP coalition is facing the serious threat of losing its parliamentary majority. The question is now, how serious challenger Jens Bullerjahn (SPD) is with his antipathy for the Left Party. The DVU is still not appearing in the polls for Saxony-Anhalt. But don't be too surprised, if there's a large-minute surge. The same happened eight years ago too.

[CO-OWL]

This should be interesting for Lewis:
http://de.news.yahoo.com/11032006/336/cdu-haengt-spd-frankfurt.html

Poll for Frankfurt city council (Ipos/FGW, n=1066)

CDU 39%
SPD 28%
Greens 19%
FDP 6%
Left Party 5%
Other 4% (should be 3% to get 100%?)

[minionofmidas]

This should be interesting for Lewis:
http://de.news.yahoo.com/11032006/336/cdu-haengt-spd-frankfurt.html

Poll for Frankfurt city council (Ipos/FGW, n=1066)

CDU 39%
SPD 28%
Greens 19%
FDP 6%
Left Party 5%
Other 4% (should be 3% to get 100%?)

Probably due to rounding.
This poll was paid for by the FAZ. If recent local elections are anything to go by, it shows more or less the result the FAZ paid for.
That said, it's more or less in line with what I was thinking. I'd expect the final CDU and Green results somewhat lower, the other vote higher, though.
Two more things to note - this election will probably have a freakishly low turnout, even lower than 5 years ago. The campaign - EVERYBODY's campaign - has been highly uninspiring so far. It's basically, "Hey - don't blame us, it was everybody else's fault". Logical result of that absurd CDU-SPD-Green-FDP power-sharing pact that was never popular...

[CO-OWL]

New Rhineland-Palatinate poll (Forsa, 03/15)

SPD 39%
CDU 34%
FDP 10%
Greens 8%
WASG 4%
Other 5%

New Saxony-Anhalt poll (IfM, 03/14)

CDU 38 %
SPD 25 %
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 3%
Other 5% (DVU 1%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Saxony-Anhalt poll (IfM, 03/14)

CDU 38 %
SPD 25 %
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 3%
Other 5% (DVU 1%)

The single percent for the DVU in Saxony-Anhalt is just unrealistic, I fear. And according to the same poll one-sixth of the voters are still undecided whom to vote for.

Interesting are the preferences of the SPD supporters for a future governing coalition. 60% say that they would prefer a Grand coalition with the CDU, while only 25% of the SPD supporters in the state are favoring a coalition with the Left Party.PDS.

[minionofmidas]

Two CDU ward (or whatever you call it) councillors died yesterday, both running for reelection, one (Gerd Riechemeier, dead at 70) also a member of the city council, where he was not however running for reelection. (He wanted to, he wasn't renominated.)

The dead men will remain on the list (and since Riechemeier headed the Bergen-Enkheim list, he will no doubt be elected.)
The other guy - never heard the name before - died in a fire in his own flat by the way, aged 46. Shame.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Infratest-dimap polls for all three state elections were released today...


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 46%
SPD 28%
Greens 10%
FDP 9%
REP 3%
WASG 2%

There will either be a continuation of the CDU/FDP coalition or a sole majority for the CDU.


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 35%
FDP 9%
Greens 6%
WASG 3%

Looks like a almost certain re-election for the SPD/FDP coalition.


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 26%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%

The CDU/FDP coalition ist still faced with a possible loss of their majority in parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polls released...


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 30%
Greens 10%
FDP 8%
WASG 3%

Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 36%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
WASG 3%

Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 37%
SPD 23%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%
DVU 4%



Would the PM's be elected directly...

Baden-Württemberg
Günther Oettinger (CDU): 44%
Ute Vogt (SPD): 37%

Rhineland-Palatinate
Kurt Beck (SPD): 63%
Christoph Böhr (SPD): 20%

Saxony-Anhalt
Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU): 48%
Jens Bullerjahn (SPD): 20%
Wulf Gallert (Left.PDS): 6%



Number of voters still undecided...

Baden-Württemberg: 46%
Rhineland-Palatinate: 33%
Saxony-Anhalt: 39%



Not much difference to yesterday's Infratest polls... except it seems more likely that DVU will win seats in parliament in Saxony-Anhalt. And there's a surprisingly high number of undecided voters, especially in the CDU stronghold of Baden-Württemberg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Emnid polls:


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
Greens 10%
FDP 9%
WASG 2%


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 35%
FDP 9%
Greens 7%
WASG 3%


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 25%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%
DVU 4%

[minionofmidas]

Polling day tomorrow. Which means I have to be out in the hindmost corner of the Nordweststadt at 7.30 on a sunday morning. (I'm a pollworker there. Polls open at 8.). Which means I need to get up at 6.00, 6.15, roundabout that.
And they're switching to summertime tonight, so it's really 6.30, 7.00, 5.00, 5.15.


Funny thing. There's this guy I used to know quite well some years ago, Manuel Stock. Lived in the same neighborhood as I did when I was 17-19, went to the same school as my "stepsister", a year younger than me, parents active in the local Greens just as my dad was. We went clubbing together sometimes back then, too. I don't think I've run across him for 3, 4 years though. Anyways, he was active from an awfully early date in the Green Party's fledgling youth organization - something I've never bothered to do.
And in 2001 he got nominated for the council, pretty high up the list. I went around thinking that pretty soon I'd have a mate on the city council. As it turned out the Greens did badly, he lost two places due to individual candidates' votes, and he wasn't elected, but he was the first runner-up, so if any Green councillor died or resigned, he'd be in. Which happened in, er, 2004 I think, by which time I'd lost contact with him.

Now, he's running for reelection. There's actually posters with his mug on it up - All the parties have printed posters for ridiculously high numbers of individual candidates this time, usually found most densely in the areas where they expect said candidate to do well. In the gay nightlife district of the NE Downtown, the SPD has a poster with two far-down-the-list candidates and the slogan "Gaymeinsam für Frankfurt". The Greens have sitting councillors Stefan Majer and Manuel Stock, individually, and the Wowereit-inspired line "Ich bin GRÜN und das ist auch gut so."
It does feel a bit odd, getting told by public advertisement that an old mate is gay...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
CDU: 44.8% / 65 seats
SPD: 25.1% / 35 seats
Greens: 11.7% / 15 seats
FDP: 10.6% / 13 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ARD projects a slim absolute majority for the CDU.


ZDF projection (6:17 p.m.)
CDU: 44.2% / 69 seats
SPD: 25.4% / 39 seats
Greens: 11.6% / 17 seats
FDP: 10.8% / 15 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects that the CDU is one seat short of a sole majority, would have continue coalition with the FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rheinland-Palatinate


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
SPD: 46.2% / 54 seats
CDU: 32.3% / 38 seats
FDP: 8.1% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0 % / 0 seats
WASG: 2.6% / 0 seats

ARD projects an absolute majority for the SPD (provided that the Greens will be kicked out of the parliament).


ZDF projection (6:18 p.m.)
SPD: 44,6% / 49 seats
CDU: 33.6% / 37 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0% / 6 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a majority for the SPD/FDP coalition (but no sole majority for the SPD).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Saxony-Anhalt


ARD projection (6:34 p.m.)
CDU: 37.4% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.0% / 26 seats
SPD: 20.8% / 22 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.6% / 0 seats

ARD currently projects that the CDU/FDP coalition will lose its majority, "Grand" coalition likely.


ZDF projection (6:39 p.m.)
CDU: 37.9% / 39 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 24 seats
SPD: 20.5% / 21 seats
FDP: 7.0% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a slim majority for CDU/FDP.