German state and local elections, March 26th

[Middle-aged Europe]

Damn, Lewis bet me to it. I considered to open up a topic a while ago, but decided to wait until February then.

One of those German states to still do the good thing and vote every four years.

Actually, this will be the last time that we vote after four years. The parliament's term was changed to five years just recently.

Not sure whom the SPD and Left are running or whether a coalition between the two is an option.

The SPD candidate is the 43-year-old Jens Bullerjahn, which makes him another "rising star" I suppose. Originally a strong supporter of a close cooperation with the PDS during the 90ies, he has considerably moved to the political center in recent years. He's now criticizing the Left Party for its "populism" and "lack of realistic political alternatives" and has stated a few weeks ago that his party will seek coalition talks with the CDU first, arguing that the SPD in Saxony-Anhalt has more in common with the CDU than with the Left.

However, the SPD has deliberately avoided to formally rule out a coalition with the Left Party. And a "Red-Red coalition" is probably still popular among the SPD's more leftist members. The interesting question is what will happen if the CDU/FDP coalition loses its majority, but the CDU comes in first nevertheless. Will Bullerjahn really be willing to give up the top job and become only the junior partner under Böhmer?

The Left party's candidate is Wulf Gallert, who is claiming the post of the PM for himself, despite the fact that this is definitely not going to happen. Aside from this I have to admit that I don't know that much about him, since long-time PDS leader Petra Sitte just left fer Berlin in last year's national election.

Unfortunately, I don't think that a comeback of the DVU is totally out question, considering that this old fossil Gerhart Frey is again pumping a lot of money from his bank account into the local state party.

Two newest polls - one from december, one from november - are both by Infratest-dimap, so I'll give the newer with change from the older: CDU 31% (-2) SPD 30% (+5) Left 27% (+2) FDP 6% (-3) Greens 2% (-2) other 4% (no change). No idea what caused these changes or if they're real at all.

You already mentioned the volatile voting behaviour. It's a state with 50+% swing voters. But we have to keep in mind that opinion polls conducted in Saxony-Anhalt are subject to this volatility in the same or probably even in a stronger way.



Btw, another interesting question in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate will be whether the Left Party allies from the WASG will succeed in winning seats in the state parliaments there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the Magdeburg Model still on the table as an option? Or would it have to be a coalition?

Can't recall any SPD or Left politician who has proposed this recently. From the point of view of the SPD it will be either a coalition with the CDU or a (formal) coalition with the Left Party, with the CDU being the preferable option.

I think the Magdeburg model was just a way to sell a SPD/PDS quasi-coalition to the people/media/own party without entering a formal coalition in a time when coalitions between SPD and PDS were still considered to be totally out of question. We're beyond this state now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for the Rhineland-Palatinate election:

SPD 37%
CDU 37%
FDP 11%
Greens 7%
WASG 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kurt Beck (incumbent SPD) 69%
Christoph Böhr (CDU): 17%

This doesn't surprise me a bit. Why does the CDU even allow Böhr to run again? Isn't it the third time now?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Really? I thought it was his third run, too... Who ran in 1996?

The German Wikipedia article about Böhr says he ran in 1996 and 2001.

After he lost the 1996 election he was deposed by the CDU, but managed to return to the top of the party just in time to be defeated again in the 2001 election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

except it doesn't actually say he ran in 96. It says he was leader of the parliamentary party up to the 96 elections and took the position again in 97. I've done a little more research, and the candidate for the pm position in 1996 was actually Johannes Gerster, who retired from politics in 1997.

So, Gerster, who had run und lost the election, deposed Böhr and took his office? And the CDU did this, because... they were so happy that Gerster had lost the election, they had to reward him somehow?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD did the same thing with Scharping in 1994 in the Bundestag. Gerster did gain votes compared with the 1991 debacle. Of course that wasn't hard. Same goes for Scharping 94 compared with the 1990 debacle, of course.

I'm still wondering how the SPD managed to elevate Scharping to any position in the first place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Don't wanna start another new three-responses thread, but Johannes Rau is dead at 75.

Yeah, that's sad... but not too unexpected after he missed his own birthday celebrations last week because of his illness.

And of all things Rau had to die on my birthday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New polls by infratest Dimap -
Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
FDP 8%
Greens 8%
Left 4%

If the pm were directly elected, 39% would vote for pm Günther Oettinger, 33% for SPD candidate Ute Vogt. The remainder would vote for somebody else, not at all, or is undecided. Oettinger's job approval is just 37%.

FDP and Greens would both win 9% according to the poll. http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=1048166/gkqz6x/index.html


And there's also an new Infratest poll for Saxony-Anhalt
CDU: 33%
SPD: 29%
Left.PDS: 23%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 3%
Other parties (probably includes the DVU): 6%

In a direct election, incumbent Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU) would win 49% of the vote, Jens Bullerjahn (SPD) 14%, and Wulf Gallert (Left.PDS) 6%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg (IfM Leipzig):

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
WASG 2%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Baden-Württemberg (IfM Leipzig):

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
WASG 2%

Ouch.

Who's IfM, though?

"Institut für Meinungsforschung"... I think. One of the smaller polling firms.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Rhineland-Palatinate poll (Psephos, 02/28)

SPD 42%
CDU 38%
FDP 8%
Greens 5%
WASG 2%


New Saxony-Anhalt poll (IWD, 02/28)

CDU 38.1 %
SPD 26.9 %
Left.PDS 19.2%
FDP 6.4%
Greens 3.4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And new Infratest polls were released today:


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 46%
SPD 29%
Greens 10%
FDP 8%
WASG 3%


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 42%
CDU 35%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
WASG 4%


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 27%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%


Comments: Still looks like a easy victory for the CDU/FDP coalition in Baden-Württemberg and the SPD/FDP coalition in Rhineland-Palatinate. Wouldn't have expected something different. In Baden-Württemberg, it seems even possible that the CDU will win a majority of the seats on its own. And the Left Party allies from the WASG seem to be in trouble.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU still leads the SPD by a comfortable margin. However, because of a relatively weak performance of the FDP in the opinion polls (compared to the 13% they got four years ago), the CDU/FDP coalition is facing the serious threat of losing its parliamentary majority. The question is now, how serious challenger Jens Bullerjahn (SPD) is with his antipathy for the Left Party. The DVU is still not appearing in the polls for Saxony-Anhalt. But don't be too surprised, if there's a large-minute surge. The same happened eight years ago too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Saxony-Anhalt poll (IfM, 03/14)

CDU 38 %
SPD 25 %
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 3%
Other 5% (DVU 1%)

The single percent for the DVU in Saxony-Anhalt is just unrealistic, I fear. And according to the same poll one-sixth of the voters are still undecided whom to vote for.

Interesting are the preferences of the SPD supporters for a future governing coalition. 60% say that they would prefer a Grand coalition with the CDU, while only 25% of the SPD supporters in the state are favoring a coalition with the Left Party.PDS.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Infratest-dimap polls for all three state elections were released today...


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 46%
SPD 28%
Greens 10%
FDP 9%
REP 3%
WASG 2%

There will either be a continuation of the CDU/FDP coalition or a sole majority for the CDU.


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 35%
FDP 9%
Greens 6%
WASG 3%

Looks like a almost certain re-election for the SPD/FDP coalition.


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 26%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%

The CDU/FDP coalition ist still faced with a possible loss of their majority in parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polls released...


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 30%
Greens 10%
FDP 8%
WASG 3%

Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 36%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
WASG 3%

Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 37%
SPD 23%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%
DVU 4%



Would the PM's be elected directly...

Baden-Württemberg
Günther Oettinger (CDU): 44%
Ute Vogt (SPD): 37%

Rhineland-Palatinate
Kurt Beck (SPD): 63%
Christoph Böhr (SPD): 20%

Saxony-Anhalt
Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU): 48%
Jens Bullerjahn (SPD): 20%
Wulf Gallert (Left.PDS): 6%



Number of voters still undecided...

Baden-Württemberg: 46%
Rhineland-Palatinate: 33%
Saxony-Anhalt: 39%



Not much difference to yesterday's Infratest polls... except it seems more likely that DVU will win seats in parliament in Saxony-Anhalt. And there's a surprisingly high number of undecided voters, especially in the CDU stronghold of Baden-Württemberg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Emnid polls:


Baden-Württemberg
CDU 45%
SPD 29%
Greens 10%
FDP 9%
WASG 2%


Rhineland-Palatinate
SPD 43%
CDU 35%
FDP 9%
Greens 7%
WASG 3%


Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 36%
SPD 25%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 6%
Greens 4%
DVU 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
CDU: 44.8% / 65 seats
SPD: 25.1% / 35 seats
Greens: 11.7% / 15 seats
FDP: 10.6% / 13 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ARD projects a slim absolute majority for the CDU.


ZDF projection (6:17 p.m.)
CDU: 44.2% / 69 seats
SPD: 25.4% / 39 seats
Greens: 11.6% / 17 seats
FDP: 10.8% / 15 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects that the CDU is one seat short of a sole majority, would have continue coalition with the FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Rheinland-Palatinate


ARD projection (6:16 p.m.)
SPD: 46.2% / 54 seats
CDU: 32.3% / 38 seats
FDP: 8.1% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0 % / 0 seats
WASG: 2.6% / 0 seats

ARD projects an absolute majority for the SPD (provided that the Greens will be kicked out of the parliament).


ZDF projection (6:18 p.m.)
SPD: 44,6% / 49 seats
CDU: 33.6% / 37 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 9 seats
Greens: 5.0% / 6 seats
WASG: 3.0% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a majority for the SPD/FDP coalition (but no sole majority for the SPD).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Saxony-Anhalt


ARD projection (6:34 p.m.)
CDU: 37.4% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.0% / 26 seats
SPD: 20.8% / 22 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.6% / 0 seats

ARD currently projects that the CDU/FDP coalition will lose its majority, "Grand" coalition likely.


ZDF projection (6:39 p.m.)
CDU: 37.9% / 39 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 24 seats
SPD: 20.5% / 21 seats
FDP: 7.0% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats

ZDF projects a slim majority for CDU/FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With the possibility of the FDP being kicked out of the governing coalition in all three states, Angela Merkel's Grand coalition could have a two-third majority in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Official results - Baden-Württemberg

CDU: 44.2% / 69 seats
SPD: 25.2% / 38 seats
Greens: 11.7% / 17 seats
FDP: 10.7% / 15 seats
WASG: 3.1% / 0 seats
Other parties: 5.1% / 0 seats

Turnout: 53.4%


The CDU, being one seat short of majority of its own, will probably continue the coalition with the FDP.




Official results - Rhineland-Palatinate

SPD: 45.6% / 53 seats
CDU: 32.8% / 38 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 10 seats
Greens: 4.6% / 0 seats
WASG: 2.5% / 0 seats
Other parties: 6.5% / 0 seats

Turnout: 58.2%


Rather unexpectedly, the SPD has won a majority of its own, which will probably kick the FDP out of the government.




No official result from Saxony-Anhalt yet. Latest projections:


ARD

CDU: 36.2% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 27 seats
SPD: 21.3% / 23 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.5% / 0 seats
Other parties (incl. DVU which won about 3%): 8.2% / 0 seats

Turnout: 44.2%


ZDF

CDU: 36.0% / 37 seats
Left.PDS: 24.2% / 25 seats
SPD: 21.2% / 22 seats
FDP: 6.9% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.4% / 0 seats
Other parties: 8.3%

Turnout: 44.5%


Both ARD and ZDF are now projecting that the CDU/FDP coalition will narrowly lose its majority. Grand coalition between CDU and SPD seems imminent.



Effects on the federal level: If Saxony-Anhalt stays this way, Angela Merkel's Grand coalition will increase its majority in the Bundesrat by eight seats... 44 out of 69 seats are now from states with CDU, SPD, CDU/SPD, or SPD/CDU governments. Because the CDU in Baden-Württemberg fell short of a own majority it won't be a two-third majority in the Bundesrat though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Official result - Saxony-Anhalt

CDU: 36.2% / 40 seats
Left.PDS: 24.1% / 26 seats
SPD: 21.4% / 24 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 7 seats
Greens: 3.6% / 0 seats
DVU: 3.0% / 0 seats
Other parties: 5.0% / 0 seats

Turnout: 44.2%

[Middle-aged Europe]

I congratulate Saxony-Anhalt on its record turnout.

Yeah, apparently all those potential DVU protest voters stayed home. The highest turnout we ever had in a state election was in 1998 and that was also the year the DVU got almost 13% of the vote.

The Left won ... Halle IV.

That's mine btw.



Baden-Württemberg map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebw06.html

Rhineland-Palatinate first vote (direct seats) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamerp06e.html

Rhineland-Palatinate second vote (PR distribution) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamerp06z.html

Saxony-Anhalt first vote (direct seats) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamesa06e.html

Saxony-Anhalt second vote (PR distribution) map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamesa06z.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Combined result in my hometown Halle (all four districts):

CDU 31.4%
Left.PDS 25.8%
SPD 22.2%
Greens 7.0%
FDP 6.9%
DVU 2.3%