Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, 9 February

[Peter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4627952.stm

Hilary Armstrong has moved the writ.

Apparently the Labour front-runner is Catherine Stihler, presently an MEP. The selection meeting takes place Friday night.

The Lib Dems have selected Willie Rennie, a party press officer. The SNP have selected Douglas Chapman. Realistically it doesn't matter who other parties select.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Neither LibDem or SNP candidates could be accurately described as being strong methinks. Both parties will have to at least give the seat a try though; the SNP's reputation for being a terrifying by-election machine took a huge knock in Livingston and *especially* Cathcart, while a bad showing for the LibDems might well kill off Ming The Merciless's chances of becoming leader...

[minionofmidas]

That's right, people might think "hey, he can't even win in his home county"... uninformed people that is.

[afleitch]

The Conservatives will also be hoping for a boost of a few percentage points to their 2005 score.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's right, people might think "hey, he can't even win in his home county"... uninformed people that is.

Pretty much; Dunfermline is a long way away from St Andrews after all... and it's not like they have much to do with each other...
he'd actually be more likely to have an "effect" if there were a by-election in Perth...

*Early* prediction; Labour poll about 40%-ish, other parties all put at least a bit of effort into it and split pretty evenly.

[afleitch]

Exactly. North East Fife is as far away from Dunfermline, Kirkcaldy and Dunfermline as you can get in terms of demographics. It is very much a university seat coupled with small 'fishing' villages that are now swamped by second homes.

Dunfermline and West Fife should be a shoe in for Labour (and just to be sure, they delayed a decision on toll increases on the Forth Road Bridge which would affect commuting constituents until after the by-election) and I agree with Al that in reality Labour should not fall below 40%.

[Harry Hayfield]

Dunfermline and West Fife's Electoral History (1992 - 2005)

Dunfermline West (1992 - 2005)

1992: Lab 42% Con 23% SNP 20% Lib Dem 16% Turnout: 76%
1997: Lab 53% SNP 19% Lib Dem 14% Con 13% Ref 2% Turnout: 69%
2001: Lab 53% SNP 17% Lib Dem 16% Con 10% SSP 2% UKIP 2% Turnout: 57%

(Dunfermline and Fife West 2005 - )

2005: Lab 47% Lib Dem 20% SNP 19% Con 10% SSP 2% UKIP 2% Turnout: 60%

[Harry Hayfield]

Electorate: 72,225 (+2.04% on Election 2005)

[Peter]

The SSP have thrown in a wildcard: John McAllion, a former Labour MP (Dundee East, 1987 - 2001) and MSP (Dundee East, 1999 - 2003). He was something of a rebel when in the Scottish Parliament and was previously a member of the Socialist Campaign Group in Westminster.

Candidacy declarations close this Thursday. On top of the usual four and the SSP, there will also be UKIP and Green candidates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting; but Dundee is quite a way from Dunfermline and I don't know if he'd be well known there at all. IIRC he wasn't exactly high profile (at least while he was an M.P. Don't really follow Holyrood much to be honest...).
Probably a better candidate than those picked by the LibDems and Tartan Tories though.

[afleitch]

A very shrewd move picking John McAllion. The SSP is dieing on its ar*e to excuse the term, and while they may perform above their usual position in Dunfermline, this is clearly a trial run for McAllion who has the political experience and stature they so desperately need for 2007.

Their biggest threat are the Greens, who offer the only coherent leftist alternative to the voter should they wish one. The behaviour of the SSP both inside and outside Holyrood, including last weekends proposal to abolish the Scottish flag and replace it with a 'multicultural rainbow banner' (no doubt containing alot of red ) has angered just about everyone and the SSP are underperforming, underfunded, leaking membership and generally falling apart much to the political glee of every other Scottish party who are unified with mutual contempt for them.

End rant.

[Harry Hayfield]

Candidates declared:

 UK Independence Ian Clark Borland   
 Scottish National Party Douglas Chapman   
 Scottish Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship" James George Hargreaves   
 Scottish Socialist Party John McAllion   
 Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls Party Thomas John Minogue   
 Liberal Democrats Willie Rennie   
 Common Good Dick Rodgers   
 Conservative Carrie Helen Ruxton   
 Labour Catherine Dalling Stihler

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've heard rumours that while the LibDems *are* putting a fair bit of effort into this, it's to beat the SNP for second place rather than take the constituency.

Ah, I see that Dick Rodgers is running... I remember his leaflets from the Euro elections... now they were funny

[Peter]

Well, at least Rodgers and Hargreaves can have a race to double-digits.

[afleitch]

Update:

Last week saw three interesting bits of news. One obvious to voters, the others not so obvious.

1. Lexmark gave notice of 700 job losses in Fife. As such losses would have affected Brown's constitents too, he was able to stem the political bleeding.

2. Controvery over Labour candidate Catherine Stihler. A campaign email was sent to Labour activists declareing her the candidate hoursbefore[I/] the vote took place. Suggesting, in some quarters, that it was fixed. Labour tabloid press in Scotland suprisingly (for them) took great offense to this.

3. Controversy over Carrie Ruxton. The Tory councillor (his name escapes me) who believed he should have got the spot resigned from the council Tory group to sit as an independent.

And murmurs that the turnout is going to be very very low.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I'd heard about the first two... most interesting is the turnout rumout. A very low turnout is probably the only way Labour loses; there just aren't enough SNP or LibDem votes in most of the seat to win with even a fairly low turnout...

[afleitch]

Yeah, I'd heard about the first two... most interesting is the turnout rumout. A very low turnout is probably the only way Labour loses; there just aren't enough SNP or LibDem votes in most of the seat to win with even a fairly low turnout...

That's Scotland's eternal problem; a fragmented opposition which makes it difficult to unseat them even in seats where the Labour vote slumps. Labour will hold this seat (which they should even if all the variables are stacked against them) but the SNP and the LibDems will be tussling amongst themselves (and there is no by-election visit by loveable Charlie Kennedy this time round ) The SSP will be trying to poll at least a few hundred votes as they now appear to be in terminal decline with the coup against Sheridan and pointless policy announcements and the Tories will want to see a respectable vote for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something like 500 people turned up for a memorial service for Squire in Dunfermline Abbey: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4678890.stm

[minionofmidas]

Something like 500 people turned up for a memorial service for Squire in Dunfermline Abbey: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4678890.stm

I hope more people than that turn up to vote.

[afleitch]

Something like 500 people turned up for a memorial service for Squire in Dunfermline Abbey: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4678890.stm

I hope more people than that turn up to vote.

Labour 'worried' apparently. That usually means they know they will win, but not sure how much by.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 'worried' apparently. That usually means they know they will win, but not sure how much by.

If the Scottish Labour Party is anything like it is down here then, yes, that's what it generally means. Good example is Hartlepool o/c.

[Ben.]

Hmmm… word is that the LibDems are feeling optimistic, and it might be more than simply activist hubris.

I’d still be amazed if Labour lost the seat but I think it could be close, I’d also expect a fairly large portion of what Tory vote there is in the seat to come to the polls on Thursday… though I don’t know if it’d be sufficient to get the Tories out from fourth place, though third place might not be out of the question, though the better the LibDems do the less likely that is.                 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Doesn't mean much; they always say that. Apparently both the LibDems and the SNP have released bogus "polls" to the media, showing each respective party as being close-but-not-quiteTM to winning

[afleitch]

Doesn't mean much; they always say that. Apparently both the LibDems and the SNP have released bogus "polls" to the media, showing each respective party as being close-but-not-quiteTM to winning

That's true. I expect the SNP to outpoll the LibDems. But any real or potential Catholic SNP voters may switch over the latest furore on the front page of Monday's Daily Record

[Ben.]

But any real or potential Catholic SNP voters may switch over the latest furore on the front page of Monday's Daily Record

?... Do tell.