I certainly hope the federal partial-birth abortion ban is not upheld, but after that constitutional atrocity known as Raich, who knows?
As matters currently stand, only one conservative--Justice Thomas--will likely vote against the federal partial-birth abortion ban on commerce clause grounds. The two other principled defenders of federalism, Rehnquist and O'Connor, will have already left. Scalia is only a fair-weather federalist, and I suspect that Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy would all vote to uphold the ban.
Well it doesn't matter. Even if Roberts, Alito, Kennedy, and Scalia all vote to uphold it they'll be outweighed by the loons plus Thomas
Uh, Stenberg v. Carhart struck down the Nebraska law which banned partial-birth abortion because it presented an undue burden on the right to have an abortion.
I don't see what this has to do with federalism.
Souter, Ginsburg, Breyer, Stevens and O'Connor formed the majority.
Kennedy, Rehnquist, Scalia and Thomas formed the dissent (each writing his own separate dissent).
Even though Kennedy has had a tendency to move left, this lengthy dissent is fairly forthright from him and leads me to believe he probably hasn't changed his mind here.
Quoting from the dissent:
Ignoring substantial medical and ethical opinion, the Court substitutes its own judgment for the judgment of Nebraska and some 30 other States and sweeps the law away. The Court's holding stems from misunderstanding the record, misinterpretation of Casey, outright refusal to respect the law of a State, and statutory construction in conflict with settled rules. The decision nullifies a law expressing the will of the people of Nebraska that medical procedures must be governed by moral principles having their foundation in the intrinsic value of human life, including life of the unborn. Through their law the people of Nebraska were forthright in confronting an issue of immense moral consequence. The State chose to forbid a procedure many decent and civilized people find so abhorrent as to be among the most serious of crimes against human life, while the State still protected the woman's autonomous right of choice as reaffirmed in Casey.
The Court closes its eyes to these profound concerns.