Palestinian exit polls as accurate as American ones!
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  Palestinian exit polls as accurate as American ones!
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Author Topic: Palestinian exit polls as accurate as American ones!  (Read 4767 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: January 25, 2006, 03:14:55 PM »
« edited: January 26, 2006, 05:47:21 AM by Al the Sleepy Bear »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4645560.stm
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2006, 03:19:20 PM »

Never though I'd say this - but go Fatah!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2006, 03:20:22 PM »

Narrow? That's a ten-point lead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2006, 03:28:41 PM »


They said narrow on the Telly... and no I didn't read the article Tongue
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Gabu
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2006, 04:29:08 PM »


I think you flipped a 6 or a 9 - it was 46% to 39.5%, which is a 6.5% lead.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2006, 04:31:01 PM »


I think you flipped a 6 or a 9 - it was 46% to 39.5%, which is a 6.5% lead.
The BBC thingy originally just said "over 40" to "over 30". ...
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angus
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2006, 04:37:12 PM »


ha ha.  yeah, if were Hamas versus the GOP, you'd say Go GOP.  I have to admit my bias is the same as yours in the case of Fatah vs. Hamas.  Perhaps not surprisingly, a quick perusal of US and UK mainstream newspapers (on-line versions) seem fairly biased against Hamas, while in the arab world they're split.  E.g., Jordan times seems to support Fatah over Hamas, while Egypt's Al-Ahram seems to spell Hamas' entry into electoral politics as its stamp of legitimacy in the "...struggle against Israeli violence."

Here's an interesting poll analysis by Mr. Zogby himself (in English):

http://www.jordantimes.com/tue/opinion/opinion2.htm

The question on "Which party would do a better job negotiating peace with Israel" seems to be the number-one issue on voters mind, as far as I can tell.  This may explain why voter turnout is "high" according to the NYT.

The WaPo (on-line) article I read earlier called it a 7-point lead in the polls.  either way, it's narrow enough given the circumstances and difficulty of polling there.  There are 132 seats in the legislature (PLC), so the magic number I guess is 67 for an outright majority.  I'm not sure Fatah will have 67 looking at the polling data. 

Guess we'll find out a bit later tonight.
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angus
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2006, 04:43:07 PM »

It's a consternating and confusing system to the yankee mind (though English and German systems may make it easier for Al and Lewis to relate).  Here's a graphic from the NYT that may help US readers understand a bit more about how the Palestinian Legislature (PLC) is structured, and picked:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/01/25/international/for_MIDEAST_GRAPHIC.gif
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Umengus
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2006, 05:11:35 PM »

Hamas is a terrorist party. Hamas leaders and activists deserve the death.
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angus
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2006, 07:08:51 PM »

Hamas Doing Better Than Expected in Vote

This ain't gonna sit well with the bushies.  A Ramallah university poll is giving Fatah 63 seats to Hamas' 58.  I'm with the Bushies on this one, hoping to see Fatah get four more somehow.  WSJ print edition will feature an interesting speech by Bush tomorrow.  A snippet from the on-line version, quoting Bush:  "A political party, in order to be viable, is one that professes peace, in my judgment, in order that it will keep the peace...  And so you're getting a sense of how I'm going to deal with Hamas if they end up in positions of responsibility.  And the answer is:  not until you renounce your desire to destroy Israel will we deal with you."  (shades of the old post-venezuelan elections speech, anyone?)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2006, 07:18:17 PM »

BBC says official results not ready for days
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angus
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2006, 07:45:58 PM »

yeah, they're a bit lower tech.



Mississippi is sort of like this as well, I've noticed.
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angus
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2006, 12:00:05 AM »

well, I don't think I have to wait for official results to predict that US diplomatic efforts have been complicated in the region.  I've seen 3 sets of polling data, and have read about a dozen editorials by now, and it's fair to say that a group labeled a terrorist organization by the United States has probably garnered itself at least 40 percent of the popular vote, which has surprised many US and middle eastern writers (Zogby excepted).  At this point we can make some analyses.  (I'll eat my hat if I'm wrong)  First, Bush and his colleagues may not have to eat their words.  The statement offered to the WSJ isn't as strong as the rebuke to Chavez.  (Even Bush learns from his embarassing mistakes.)  Clearly, the statement leaves open the possibility that the US, rather than publicly rejecting a Hamas government, might just decide it will not work directly with cabinet ministers who have Hamas connections.  According to Glenn Kessler of WaPo, "There is a precedent for this approach: The Bush administration already works with the Lebanese government, even though one cabinet member is a member of Hezbollah, also labeled a terrorist group."  In fact, the US ambassador to Israel has stated that the Lebanese model may act as a blueprint for dealing with Palestine.  The key here is not to take the Bill Clinton approach, as clearly he left the situation worse than it was before meddling.  Or the Carter approach--Carter was heralded initially for the Camp David accords--but the fact that Israelis and Palestinians are still killing each other 30 years later doesn't recommend the approach.  Not that I wish death upon anyone, but as a practical matter, the good news is that Arafat is dead and Sharon a vegetable.  Much depends on what happens in Israel.  For now, if I were Bush's advisors, I'd urge caution, and tell him to publicly make nice.  Let the first words uttered be "congratulations" while behind the scenes send whomever he can afford to send to Palestine and rough the bastards up a bit.  And do the same with the Israelis once they get sorted out.  Clearly, with the strong Hamas showing, and US diplomacy in the Arab world precipitously stretched, this is not the time for a rebuke in the vein of the anti-Chavez remarks.  Wouldn't you agree?
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2006, 12:09:28 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2006, 12:12:31 AM by Left of the Dial »

Hamas and Fatah have already agreed to a grand coalition. This is a good thing actually because under the agreement Abbas will stay President and Fatah will get all key leadership positions even if Hamas wins more seats. Obviously I don't need to say what type of mess the US, Europe and Israel would have negotiating with a Hamas-led government. For a real nightmare scenario, imagine a Hamas-led government and a Netanyahu-led government.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2006, 12:49:50 AM »

Hamas will have to be part of the negotiations, if there is to be a peace that will stick on the Palestinian side.  Whether such a peace is possible at all is separate question.  I'm a firm pessimist here.
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angus
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2006, 12:05:06 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2006, 12:07:24 PM by angus »

I'm naive.  I think Peace is desired by most Iraelis and Palestinians.  After all, the first thing anyone whose native language is one of the two surviving Hamito-Semitic languages says to each other when they meet is Peace.  Shalom or Salaam.  Old scars eventually heal.  The question, it seems to me, is what approach the Empire will take.  The nice thing about democracy is that people elect their own leaders.  The worst thing about democracy is that people elect their own leaders.  Will Bush immediately make public pronouncements about not dealing with terrorists?  Probably, but there are diplomatic ways of doing it.  I say he should make nice publicly, and encourage the English and others to do the same.  Behind the scenes make the Palestinians understand that the US will look unfavorably upon any group that continues to make noises about the "destruction of Israel" since no good will ever come from such an attitude.  What approach will Bush take?  What approach will Blair Take?  Will the French, Russians, Germans, Jordanians, Egyptians play a major role in working with the new Palestinian government to help them set up an independent state?

Of course, Jerusalem shall always remain a sticking point I suppose.  Which reminds us that this one isn't entirely about natural resources, but rather that adherents of the three so-called World Religions see that spot of semiarid pasture as God's Country.  Unfortunately.  But peace is possible.  All palestinians must publicly renounce terrorism.  Of course, there will always be radicals.  So Israel must learn that the appropriate response to a rock thrown through a window isn't to flatten a village with a missile.  It takes two to tango.  But it also takes three to stop tangoing.  Somebody has to turn off the stereo.  Bush can be that guy, if he plays his cards right.  He's always claiming his god instructs him.  Wonder what his god is telling him just now?

Nothing would please me more, in terms of foreign policy achievements, than to see a man I actively helped elect as US president finally earn my vote.  I really hope Bush plays this right.  And I'm naive enough to think he can be the US president who manages to help bring peace to the people of the Levant.
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angus
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2006, 01:14:20 PM »

Am I the only Peacenik who supported Bush?  Wow.  Alright, no more platitudes.  For today, anyway.  I'd slept late.  Not doing research this semester and only teach one class, in the evenings, on Thursday, but there's a guy from Kerr-McGee coming to donate a rather handsome piece of equipment so I came in.  Sitting and waiting...  And now with a chance to read more than the tidbits I read on line this morning while trying not to awaken my Master, I see some rather striking news. 

Hamas has apparently claimed victory.  I gather from the excoriation of the Palestinians on other threads that this is old news.  So here's some spin.

David Horowitz in the right-wing Jerusalem Post calls it an earthquake.  "The earthquake whose warning rumblings the secular Palestinian leadership insistently refused to heed has struck, ...The Islamists are taking control."

NYT and WaPo editorials are full of shock and awe.  No surprise there.  I notice Al's changed the title of the thread to a more appropriately sardonic one.  Good show.

The more liberal Israeli outlet Haaretz writes, "The Bush administration had insisted on holding the Palestinian elections, and preferred promoting democracy in the Arab world to fighting terror,"  (as I said, boys and girls, if you're going to push capitalism and democracy around the world, be prepared to accept the consequences.  Empires just ain't what they used to be.)  Haaretz's Aluf Benn goes on to say, "The results prove that Israel was right when it warned the United States that freedom of choice in the Arab world would award leadership to extremist Islamist movements and not to secular, liberal candidates."  That sort of editorializing isn't gonna help.

Now, how about a little spin from the other side?  Permalink's Freedom Fighter posts  "The results prove that Israel was right when it warned the United States that freedom of choice in the Arab world would award leadership to extremist Islamist movements and not to secular, liberal candidates."  Ouch.  That's not gonna help either.

Jeezus christ.  Is there no unbiased news anymore?  Let's see what BBC is writing.  "According to preliminary results, Hamas won 76 seats to 43 for the ruling Fatah party, giving them a majority in the 132-seat chamber. The turnout was 77%."  Okay we knew that, how about an analysis?  Okay here's one by Martin Patience of BBC reporting from Ramallah.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4647254.stm

Actually, he seems a little pro-palestine.

Man, this is one issue in which it seems like everyone takes sides.  Kinda like Bush v Gore.  Remember that one?  Couldn't get any objectivity there either.  Let's see what Los Tiempos are writing.  They're pretty neutral on Latin American politics usually.  Wonder how they spin this election result?  Wow, doesn't even make first page news in Cochabamba.  No shortage of Morelos articles though.

Mexico's La Journada writes:  "No importa cuál vaya a ser el resultado, Mahdi Hassouna, un mecánico automotriz está deleitado. "Esto es excelente", decía. "Esperábamos que hubiera más problemas pero todo ha transcurrido tranquilamente"

Well, at least this writer is trying for objectivity.  Many spanish-language outlets often refer to "grupo islámico palestino Hamas" rather than "Los Radicales" or something like, which I think may indicate some objectivity.  And often recognize "Opinión dividida existe"

Wonder about arabic-language outlets.  Here's something from al Jazirah:


ﺱﺎﻤﺣﻭ ﺢﺘﻓ ﻦﻴﺑ ًﺍﺪﻳﺪﺷ ًﺎﺴﻓﺎﻨﺗ ﺪﻬﺸﺗ ﺔﻴﻨﻴﻄﺴﻠﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻌﻳﺮﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﺨﺘﻧﻻﺍ

Ah, fuggetabout it.  These guys are having just as much emotionally charged reaction as US newspapers.  Just on the other side.

Well, my own take is somewhat more pessimistic now than before I'd read all your posts and all the US editorials.  Hopefully, Bush will handle this better than he handled the Chavez victory in Venezuela.  You will only complicate US diplomatic efforts with all this incendiary language.  A vote was held, somebody you don't approve of won.  And that's it.  It's called democracy.  Democracy is an inefficient form of government, but it's one that The West is pushing on everyone.  So now you have to deal with it.  Best to make nice with the leaders in public, and play a harder ball in private, away from the ears and eyes of the reporters, imho.
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angus
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2006, 03:10:44 PM »

Here's an interesting analysis.  More measured, imho, from Der Spiegel (of all places!)  They lead with "Der Wahlsieg der Hamas führt zu einem Desaster, heißt es überall."  (something like "the victory of Hamas leads to a disaster...") but it goes on to a thoughful analysis.  It ends with "..Das ist bitter, aber es ist die Wirklichkeit."

ain't it the truth, pal?

see the rest of the article here:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,397468,00.html

Oh, Hey, this isn't bad:  "President Bush struck a conciliatory note on Hamas's victory while warning it to disarm and renounce terrorism."

it comes from Steven R. Weisman of NYT.  Go to the first page:

http://www.nytimes.com/

I'm perking up.  I still say Bush has a little nuance in him after all.  Smiley
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angus
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2006, 04:37:32 PM »

back home now.

netanyahu on CNN giving a fairly sobering analysis.  As he reads it, Hamas' electoral victory is attributable to the view among palestinians that terrorism works.  At least that it has encouraged Sharon to pull up stakes in some Israeli settlements Palestine.  It's a false perception on the part of the palestinians, of course, netanyahu goes on to say.  Based on the Zogby article I posted yesterday it seems like a reasonable assessment, which is why we're all rooting for Fatah.  But again, the question isn't at this point who'll win, because it seems Hamas is in control of the PLC, but rather how will the Imperialistic powers of the world, particularly the US, deal with them.  to this question netanyahu is a bit vague.  at least on this interview.

Carter's on now.  He urges Hamas to renounce violence.  Good advice.  Let's see if it's followed.  Now would be a good time for Carter to make nice with the Bushies and try to work with them.  Let him earn his Nobel Prize, even if a bit belated.  I think Carter may be the only living US president the palestinians will take fairly objectively.
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angus
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« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2006, 04:39:12 PM »

ha.  Greenfield is on now.  (I like him)  He has a piece entitled "Be Careful What You Wish For."  Damn skippy.  Note the triple entendre.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: January 26, 2006, 04:42:45 PM »

Good stuff Angus Smiley
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2006, 05:55:30 PM »

I always get a chuckle out of an Israeli politician who says that the Palestianians will never get a state by terrorism.  If it weren't for the Zionist terrorists who rejected the one-state solution that Britain originally proposed, there wouldn't be a Jewish-majority State of Israel today. Given the obvious example that terrorism can work, why shouldn't the Palestinians think so, aside from the obvious difference that Britain didn't really care very much one way or another who took charge of the territory while Israel obviously considers it an issue of vital importance.
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Beet
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« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2006, 05:59:36 PM »

I always get a chuckle out of an Israeli politician who says that the Palestianians will never get a state by terrorism.  If it weren't for the Zionist terrorists who rejected the one-state solution that Britain originally proposed, there wouldn't be a Jewish-majority State of Israel today. Given the obvious example that terrorism can work, why shouldn't the Palestinians think so, aside from the obvious difference that Britain didn't really care very much one way or another who took charge of the territory while Israel obviously considers it an issue of vital importance.

The Israelis had terrorism but they also had a superior military supply line and backing from major Western powers, which the current terrorists do not. If the Soviets were around they'd love to exploit this situation and get revenge for Afghanistan. But they're not.
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« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2006, 09:20:31 PM »

I always get a chuckle out of an Israeli politician who says that the Palestianians will never get a state by terrorism.  If it weren't for the Zionist terrorists who rejected the one-state solution that Britain originally proposed, there wouldn't be a Jewish-majority State of Israel today. Given the obvious example that terrorism can work, why shouldn't the Palestinians think so, aside from the obvious difference that Britain didn't really care very much one way or another who took charge of the territory while Israel obviously considers it an issue of vital importance.

Plus they elected former terrorists leaders as PMs later. Plus they actually supported Hamas in the 70s as a counterbalance to the PLO. I obviously won't support any terrorist actions against civilians, but in many ways Israel is just reaping what they sowed.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2006, 07:50:14 AM »

I always get a chuckle out of an Israeli politician who says that the Palestianians will never get a state by terrorism.  If it weren't for the Zionist terrorists who rejected the one-state solution that Britain originally proposed, there wouldn't be a Jewish-majority State of Israel today. Given the obvious example that terrorism can work, why shouldn't the Palestinians think so, aside from the obvious difference that Britain didn't really care very much one way or another who took charge of the territory while Israel obviously considers it an issue of vital importance.

Plus they elected former terrorists leaders as PMs later. Plus they actually supported Hamas in the 70s as a counterbalance to the PLO. I obviously won't support any terrorist actions against civilians, but in many ways Israel is just reaping what they sowed.
80s. Hamas didn't even exist in the 70s. And only very fleetingly.
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