What will the "15th seat" be?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, it's the morning after election day, and control of the House is still on a razor's edge.  The Democrats have gained a net 14 seats so far, but there's still one seat that's virtually a tie, and is going into recounts.  If the Democrats win it, they win control of the House.  If the Republicans win it, *they* keep control of the House.  What is your best guess as to which seat that would be?

Simply based on looking at the few House polls that are out there, and looking at other people's predictions, I'll go with VA2, with the 14 House seats that are more likely to go R->D than that being:

AZ8
CO7
CT2
CT4
FL16
IN2
IN8
IN9
IA1
KY4
NY24
NC11
PA6
TX22

and VA2 being the 15th seat that would decide things.  But I caution against taking this too seriously.  I'm only basing this on what I've seen from a few polls, and what I've seen from other peoples' predictions.  I haven't done any independent research on these on my own.  But I'm curious as to what other people think.  If there was one House seat that you would look for that you think would be most likely to decide control of the House, which one would it be?

[© tweed]

OH-18?

[Frodo]

I take it you are reasonably confident that Dave Reichert will keep his seat in Washington's 8th congressional district. 

[Alcon]

I take it you are reasonably confident that Dave Reichert will keep his seat in Washington's 8th congressional district. 

Burner is down in a poll a few days after she starts ads, when I haven't even seen any Reichert ads yet.  I'm not sure it looks very good for her.

[Deano963]

This is a ridiculously unlikely scenario. I don't see why everyone is sooooooooooo convinced that whoever controls the House after the election is going to do so by 1 or 2 seats.

In the latest edition of the Rothenberg Political Report, ALL 27 SEATS rated either 'pure toss-up' or 'toss-up/tilt Dem' or 'toss-up/tilt Rep' or 'Dem favored (AZ-08) are currently held by Republicans.

In the latest Hotline rankings, only 3 of the top 30 seats most likely to switch are held by Democrats, and only 10 of the top 50.

In the latest rankings by Charlie Cook, 2 Republican held seats are rated 'Lean Dem' (AZ-08 and TX-22), 18 are rated 'toss-up', and 16 are rated 'Lean Republican'. Conversely, Democrats have NO seats rated 'toss-up' right now and only 8 are even considered to be 'Lean Dem'.

And, NONE of these rankings took into account the new developments in FL-16 that just happened. That seat is as good as gone for the republicans.

If there is the least bit of a national wave on election day, the Dems will control the House by at least 15 seats.

[Torie]

OK, it's the morning after election day, and control of the House is still on a razor's edge.  The Democrats have gained a net 14 seats so far, but there's still one seat that's virtually a tie, and is going into recounts.  If the Democrats win it, they win control of the House.  If the Republicans win it, *they* keep control of the House.  What is your best guess as to which seat that would be?

Simply based on looking at the few House polls that are out there, and looking at other people's predictions, I'll go with VA2, with the 14 House seats that are more likely to go R->D than that being:

AZ8
CO7
CT2
CT4
FL16
IN2
IN8
IN9
IA1
KY4
NY24
NC11
PA6
TX22

and VA2 being the 15th seat that would decide things.  But I caution against taking this too seriously.  I'm only basing this on what I've seen from a few polls, and what I've seen from other peoples' predictions.  I haven't done any independent research on these on my own.  But I'm curious as to what other people think.  If there was one House seat that you would look for that you think would be most likely to decide control of the House, which one would it be?

PA-7, OH-15 and FL-13 in that order, and maybe NY-26. I don't agree with CT-4, and think CT-2 is iffy. Simmons have legs. Gerlach in PA-6 is showing signs of life, but still the underdog. The thing is, is that with 10 or a dozen tight races, the Dems are bound to win some, even if we don't know which ones.

[Mr. Morden]

This is a ridiculously unlikely scenario. I don't see why everyone is sooooooooooo convinced that whoever controls the House after the election is going to do so by 1 or 2 seats.

Whoa, Deano.  I'm not saying that I'm "convinced" that whoever controls the House will have a margin of just 1 or 2 seats.  I just think it's a possibility, and I'm curious as to people's thoughts on what the bellweather will be.  Which one should I pay closest attention to on election night if it looks really close?  If there is a big wave, then presumably we'll be able to tell that early, and it will be a moot point.

[TeePee4Prez]

My dark horse pick- PA 7!

[Mr. Morden]

PA-7, OH-15 and FL-13 in that order, and maybe NY-26.

Hmmm.....FL13 hadn't been on my radar screen, but maybe I should pay attention to it.  I haven't seen many others mention it as a serious possibility as a Dem. pickup.

[Deano963]

This is a ridiculously unlikely scenario. I don't see why everyone is sooooooooooo convinced that whoever controls the House after the election is going to do so by 1 or 2 seats.

Whoa, Deano.  I'm not saying that I'm "convinced" that whoever controls the House will have a margin of just 1 or 2 seats.  I just think it's a possibility, and I'm curious as to people's thoughts on what the bellweather will be.  Which one should I pay closest attention to on election night if it looks really close?  If there is a big wave, then presumably we'll be able to tell that early, and it will be a moot point.

I don't think there really is a bellweather race on the house side. On the Senate side we have Missouri, but as far as the House goes....maybe IL-08, OH-01 or OH-15, PA-10 or PA-07, but it is very hard to pick out any House race that accurately reflects the national mood or national trends as it is with Senate races given that almost no districts are accurate cross-sections of the country and most are heavily gerrymandered.

[Whacker77]

I would certainly add OH18 to that list.  I not so sure about the CT seats.  As for 15 seat control for the Democrats, easy partner.  Money matters and the Republicans have it.  The RNC plans to outspend the DNC 40 million to 2.4 milion in the 18 most competative districts.  Even Hillary Clinton took a few shots at Howard Dean the other night.  She said Democrats should worry more about the shortterm, elections, and less about the longterm right now, party building.  I take what she says seriously.  Afterall, we've been told she's one of the smartest women in the world.  Don't get me wrong though, a 15 seat gain looks pretty easy right now, but 30!

[Torie]

PA-7, OH-15 and FL-13 in that order, and maybe NY-26.

Hmmm.....FL13 hadn't been on my radar screen, but maybe I should pay attention to it.  I haven't seen many others mention it as a serious possibility as a Dem. pickup.

FL-13 is going RINO is a hurry, and the Pubbie is a rich diamond in the rough car dealer or something like that, and a mole told me the Dems have an internal with the Dem up 8%. Sure it may be BS, but Sarasota has that Philly suburb feel to it, and the plumbers and other service personnel in Manatee County might be grumpy.

[Deano963]

I would certainly add OH18 to that list.  I not so sure about the CT seats.  As for 15 seat control for the Democrats, easy partner.  Money matters and the Republicans have it.  The RNC plans to outspend the DNC 40 million to 2.4 milion in the 18 most competative districts.  Even Hillary Clinton took a few shots at Howard Dean the other night.  She said Democrats should worry more about the shortterm, elections, and less about the longterm right now, party building.  I take what she says seriously.  Afterall, we've been told she's one of the smartest women in the world.  Don't get me wrong though, a 15 seat gain looks pretty easy right now, but 30!

Sorry, Whacker. If you're counting on the Dems being outspent on turnout, it isn't gonna happen.

The AFl-CIO alone is going to spend $40 million almost exclusively on turnout. That other large union that broke away from it is spending $20 million. The September Fund is on track to raise it's goal of $25 million to be spent solely on ads in the last couple of weeks against vulnerable republicans and on turnout. Much has been made of the RNC's cash advantage, and little real results have come from them spending that money so far. In Ohio, they have spent at least $3 million in the last two months (Dems have been outspent more than 2-1 in this race overall) on ads against Brown, and he still leads Dewine by an average of 6 points in the last five polls. Money does not equal victory.

[Cubby]

Why doesn't anyone have CT-5 listed?

Shays might benefit from a sympathy factor, he's believed to be not only the most vulnerable Republican but also the most moderate (he denounced DeLay long before his trials).

Simmons will certainly benefit from the decision to keep the Groton submarine bases open. That was a huge win for Connecticut.

Nobody has any reason to love that old hag Nancy Johnson in CT-5. Besides her opponent being kind of young I see this race as competitive. There could be a spillover from the Lamont race, although Rell will win in a landslide.

[Torie]

Why doesn't anyone have CT-5 listed?

Shays might benefit from a sympathy factor, he's believed to be not only the most vulnerable Republican but also the most moderate (he denounced DeLay long before his trials).

Simmons will certainly benefit from the decision to keep the Groton submarine bases open. That was a huge win for Connecticut.

Nobody has any reason to love that old hag Nancy Johnson in CT-5. Besides her opponent being kind of young I see this race as competitive. There could be a spillover from the Lamont race, although Rell will win in a landslide.

Because Bush almost carried the district, Nancy Johnson is well entrenched and liked by her constituents, and the drug companies like her even more. Forget about it.