MN-Gov: Pawlenty leads Hatch by 3

[nick]

Rasmussen Reports:

MIINESOTA GOVERNOR
Tim Pawlenty (R) 47%
Mike Hatch (D) 44%

Tim Pawlenty (R) 46%
Steve Kelley (D) 37%

[WalterMitty]

oh nick, who cares about those also-rans?

i think i speak for many others when i say im really curious to see how pawlenty is doing against the self professed vampire.

[Sarnstrom]

I wonder why they didn't poll a Kelly Doran vs Tim Pawlenty match-up.

[ian]

That's pretty surprising.  I didn't even think this race was a close one!

[ilikeverin]

That's pretty surprising.  I didn't even think this race was a close one!

  Maybe more threads about the Minnesota election should be opened so I can talk more

Hatch is a popular AJ here.  He's made a lot of lawsuits against big companies (especially health companies) about poor practices, negligence, etc., which have made him popular with we populist-leaning Minnesotans, who tend to be liberal than most on health care.  This has resulted in him getting plenty of plaudits, and he was the only Democrat elected in the 2002 statewide elections (winning 54-41-4).  I had been hoping for years that he'd run for Governor, and look, now he is

[AuH2O]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

Has there ever been a race where you've predicted a more pro-Democratic result than most people expected?

[socaldem]

That's pretty surprising.  I didn't even think this race was a close one!

  Maybe more threads about the Minnesota election should be opened so I can talk more

Hatch is a popular AJ here.  He's made a lot of lawsuits against big companies (especially health companies) about poor practices, negligence, etc., which have made him popular with we populist-leaning Minnesotans, who tend to be liberal than most on health care.  This has resulted in him getting plenty of plaudits, and he was the only Democrat elected in the 2002 statewide elections (winning 54-41-4).  I had been hoping for years that he'd run for Governor, and look, now he is

If Hatch loses a close race, he'd be a sure bet against Norm Coleman, right?

[Gabu]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

Has there ever been a race where you've predicted a more pro-Democratic result than most people expected?

Has there ever been a race where he's predicted a Democratic result, period?

I can't remember ever seeing one.

[AuH2O]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

Has there ever been a race where you've predicted a more pro-Democratic result than most people expected?

Of course. If someone wants to dig up the House predictions thread from 2004-- if it exists still-- I predicted some Democrats to win that actually lost (and a couple 'questionable' predictions I made were in fact correct, such as Sodrel beating Hill). Also in 2004 I initially predicted Murkowski would lose, though by October I no longer thought that to be the case. Before Swann got hot, I predicted Rendell would easily win in '06 (that probably was not a good guess even then, because Scranton might be able to get close were he the nominee).

Claims that I never think a Democrat will win are factually in error. I am much less biased than most posters in my predictions, probably because I like to bet on things... and in doing so you learn that bias = losses.

[Gustaf]

Lol, you thought Bush was gonna win Washington. You have a definite bias against Democrats.

[ilikeverin]

That's pretty surprising.  I didn't even think this race was a close one!

  Maybe more threads about the Minnesota election should be opened so I can talk more

Hatch is a popular AJ here.  He's made a lot of lawsuits against big companies (especially health companies) about poor practices, negligence, etc., which have made him popular with we populist-leaning Minnesotans, who tend to be liberal than most on health care.  This has resulted in him getting plenty of plaudits, and he was the only Democrat elected in the 2002 statewide elections (winning 54-41-4).  I had been hoping for years that he'd run for Governor, and look, now he is

If Hatch loses a close race, he'd be a sure bet against Norm Coleman, right?

It depends; I'm not sure how long the AJ term is, and he was elected in 2002, so it's possible that, if he'd lost, he'd be out of a job, making his chances to be elected to anything slimmer.  But who knows *shrug*

[Vasall des Midas]

Lol, you thought Bush was gonna win Washington. You have a definite bias against Democrats.

He didn't claim not to... he just said he was less biased than the average poster.

[AuH2O]

Lol, you thought Bush was gonna win Washington. You have a definite bias against Democrats.

As Lewis notes above, I did not claim zero bias. There is a certain amount of structural bias (psychologically speaking) that is unavoidable, except perhaps via an exercise of the utmost rigor (which is not really justified for the purposes of posting on a message board).

However, you are factually wrong in claiming I predicted Bush would win Washington state. I never, at any time, believed or posted that Bush had a 50% or greater chance at winning there.

I did (correctly) determine that Bush was undervalued in the Spring of 2004 in certain states. At the time I believed Kerry was likely to wind up with 45-47%; at the lower end of that range, Washington would be in play.

Bush of course blew the first debate which, coupled with some bad luck events-wise, got Kerry up to 48% and change, putting away easily all Democratic states.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

The point to which your predictions are biased are beyond statistical bias.  They are just clearly biased.

Your predictions tend to have a heavy GOP bias.  You should adjust accordingly, but don't, in your predictions.

[AuH2O]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

[nick]

You were dead wrong on Coors... And Kaine...

[ATFFL]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

Is this your prediction map for 2004?



Or was there another AUH2O?

[AuH2O]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

Is this your prediction map for 2004?



Or was there another AUH2O?

lol is that a joke?

I don't ever post prediction maps, by the way. I'm not sure I even can, isn't there something additional you have to do for it to work?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

When you're wrong, though, you're very certain in your wrongness, and it's almost always to the GOP's benefit.

Maybe you all should start working on how to spin Kaine's impending defeat as some kind of moral victory as well.

You wish.

Zogby has churned out a lot of pro-Salazar polls, but other than that, this POS one is something of an outlier.

Mason-Dixon has it tied. SUSA had Coors ahead. Rasmussen has had Coors ahead.

But, most importantly, Bush is going to stomp Kerry in Colorado.

Coors is going to DC.

Nelson has a fairly severe problem on his hands.

You admit you have a bias.  If so, stop making authoritative-sounding calls that turn out to be horribly wrong.  They look really stupid after a few months.

Even when I was a moonbat, I had better sense than to make statements like those, and my analyses actually showed a GOP bias.  And you should be holding yourself up to higher standards than an idiot like me, man.