Arizona 5: Hayworth In Trouble

[Sarnstrom]

Survey USA poll, May 6-8, registered voters, MoE ± 4.1%:

Hayworth (R): 50%
Mitchell (D): 45%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=fa5c14bd-2a1f-4d5f-ab6a-9d3c7aa9fee6

[Sam Spade]

Interesting that Mitchell is pulling a higher % of Democrats than Hayworth is % of Republicans.  Mitchell is a very credible opponent, though.

Anyway, I have this one at #17 or #18 (I forget) on the Republican side right now.  Sounds about right and I'm keeping it there.

[Q]

Anyway, I have this one at #17 or #18 (I forget) on the Republican side right now.  Sounds about right and I'm keeping it there.

  Do we ever get to see this mysterious list of yours, Sam?

[Sam Spade]

Anyway, I have this one at #17 or #18 (I forget) on the Republican side right now.  Sounds about right and I'm keeping it there.

  Do we ever get to see this mysterious list of yours, Sam?

Frankly, I'm still working on it. 

Mainly because I still haven't made my way through the latest fundraising numbers, which at this point, constitute a fairly important piece of rankings.

I am hoping to have it done within the week and post my sort of master list of all 435 House races in the country in a separate thread.  It's a little project I enjoy. 

Anyway, I have Hayworth ranked as #19 and as Lean R.  I don't think this poll will push him up any, but we'll see.

At present, just for numbers sake, I have 4 Rep. seats as Lean Dem., 8 Rep. seats as Toss-up, 17 Rep. seats as Lean R, 20 Rep. seats as Likely R and 11 Rep. seats I'm watching, but presently consider Safe.

On the Democratic side, I have 2 Dem. seats as Toss-up, 5 Dem. seats as Lean D, 9 Dem. seats as Likely D and 6 Dem. seats I'm watching, but presently consider Safe.

[Rococo4]

if hayworth loses on election night, Republicans have already lost the House prior to that.  i am no fan of hayworth, i think he is a blow hard, but i would rather the seat stay R

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First Cubin, now this. Bush's drag down effect is going to be big. I hope we get a poll from MN-1. Gutknecht's typically thought of as safe, but he could go down in the right conditions. And we have a better candidate than previous years, Tim Walz, Iraq War veteran who has outraised him one quarter already.

Bunch of other House seats I want to see as well. And I wonder where mine is on Sam's list.

[sethm0]

 Hayworth could be one of my least favorite people in congress. Not just because of his views (though I disagree with nearly all of them) but because of his obnoxious demeanor.

 The more I think about it I believe that whether people Hayworth or Cubin stay in office depends entirely on conservative turnout. If Rove & co can turn out the conservative base like last time the Democrats don't really stand a chance. If on the other hand the conservatives are disillusioned and stay home, we could finally be rid of some jerks like Hayworth.

[CARLHAYDEN]

A typical SUSA poll.

Please check the registration figures for the District at the Arizona Secretary of State's website and compare it to SUSA's.

SUSA substantially overstates the percentage of Democrats.

[Sam Spade]

First Cubin, now this. Bush's drag down effect is going to be big. I hope we get a poll from MN-1. Gutknecht's typically thought of as safe, but he could go down in the right conditions. And we have a better candidate than previous years, Tim Walz, Iraq War veteran who has outraised him one quarter already.

Bunch of other House seats I want to see as well. And I wonder where mine is on Sam's list.

Gutknecht is at #43 right now, a seat that is in consideration, but is placed in the Likely R category.  It is true that Walz outraised him one quarter, but the fundraising numbers still show roughly a 3-1 edge for Gutknecht in terms of money, which is a sizable advantage.  I presume that if the race is truly close, funds will be pumped in for the effort anyways.

Also, the strength of incumbency helps and it is always hard to predict in the House which incumbents in marginal CDs will be affected by bad years for their party and not.

A plus for Walz is the fact that this is a marginal CD.  Bush only received 51.06% here in 2004.

I cannot place the strength of the challenger until I see him live on TV.  So, as for now, the race is second-tier.

[Frodo]

if hayworth loses on election night, Republicans have already lost the House prior to that.  i am no fan of hayworth, i think he is a blow hard, but i would rather the seat stay R

What Republican wouldn't? 

[Alcon]

A typical SUSA poll.

Please check the registration figures for the District at the Arizona Secretary of State's website and compare it to SUSA's.

SUSA substantially overstates the percentage of Democrats.

SUSA does tend to overweigh Democrats slightly in some states, but the problem with using the SoS figures is that many people - especially when Bush is as unpopular as he is - will switch from Republican to Independent (or Democrat) on polls, but not change their affiliation.

Where did you get the statistics for AZ-5?  I cannot find them on the SoS site.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, the url is:

http://www.gov.election/VoterReg/2006-01-01.pdf

Second, the breakdown is as follows:

Democrats         99.954     28
Libertarians         2,876       1   
Republicans     156,291     44 
Others               95.875     27
Total                354,999   100

Third, Hayworth is VERY popular due to his leading the opposition to illegal immigration.

Now, Flake will probably survive this year, but he has angered so many people that he may be taken out in the primary in 2008 if he doesn't choose to follow Kolbe into retirement.