Rasmussen: Baldacci Struggling in Re-Election Bid

[nini2287]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maine%20Governor%20January.htm

He's trailing both challengers, doesn't look good for him.

[MSUfan]

what happened?

[TheresNoMoney]

Those numbers are horrible.

I live in the state next to Maine, yet I have no idea why he is so unpopular.

[nini2287]

Those numbers are horrible.

I live in the state next to Maine, yet I have no idea why he is so unpopular.

Kevinstat provides a good analysis in this thread:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=33885.msg765350#msg765350

[ian]

I may have been the only person to officially predict that Baldacci will lose re-election on the prediction page.  Was I?

[nick]

He's done.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I may have been the only person to officially predict that Baldacci will lose re-election on the prediction page.  Was I?

I didn't do a prediction on that page, but I've had Baldacci behind for a while.

[Kevinstat]

I'll add to what I posted on the Senate related thread that nini referenced when I have more time and energy and when I've looked up some things to be as accurate with what I post as possible.

One interesting thing about this poll is that the only Republican Baldacci is beating is the one generally perceived to be the most liberal of three main Republican candidates (there's a no-name Republican candidate who's announced his candidacy now).  The problem that liberal Republican candidate faces is that he may be seen by some conservatives as more liberal than Baldacci.  While Snowe's and Collins's liberalism in comparison with the majority of their party is largely confined (at least as far as voters' image of their issue positions are concerned) to social issues like abortion and gay rights (although both hedged before supporting Bush's 2001 tax cuts as originally proposed - and I'm not sure how they voted on the $1.6 trillion tax cut that failed but I know they voted for the $1.3 one that passed - but Snowe originally had wanted to "trigger" the tax cuts to economic growth).  Mills's independence from his party exists on both social and economic issues (including business v. labor issues, where our state's Chamber of Commerce actually shows some muscle - they aren't flaming anti-socialists like I have gotten the sense they are in Arizona one of whose top leaders, IIRC, after that state's citizen-initiated public campaign funding law was struck down in court, spoke of how he wanted to make sure all candidates knew that they wouldn't be able to drink from "the public trough" - you'd never here the Chair of our state's Chamber of Commerce say something like that).  This poll is likely even worse news for Mills than for Baldacci, as it undermines out one of the few (although not the only) potential advantages he would have in the Republican primary - the claim, that as a liberal (or he'd likely say moderate) Republican, he'd have a better chance of beating Baldacci.  His campaign web site includes a letter to the editor that says just that, only in more words.

I have to get ready for bed now.  I'll write more later I'm sure.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau