OH-Gov: Tossup *Zogby*

[nick]

Zogby (phone poll):

OHIO GOVERNOR
Ted Strickland (D) 38%
Ken Blackwell (R) 35%

Ted Strickland (D) 36%
Jim Petro (R) 36%

[nini2287]

Those look like relatively reasonable numbers for Zogby.  I thought Blackwell would have fared better though.

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope Zogby isn't over-estimating Democratic support on this occasion

Dave

[tarheel-leftist85]

Republicans will retain both Senate and Gov. seats.  I'd bet money on it.

[Galactic Overlord]

Republicans will retain both Senate and Gov. seats.  I'd bet money on it.

I would too, actually.

This poll is a little strange, since Blackwell has typically done better against Strickland than Petro in other polls. 

[WalterMitty]

Republicans will retain both Senate and Gov. seats.  I'd bet money on it.

[ATFFL]

Putting the "Z-Factor" into the equation, this is a clear Libertarian pick up.  Way to go guys!

Seriously, these numbers do not look way off.  On one level, I hope Zogby does not improve.  I would hate to lose the comedy his polls provide.  That is not mentioning his website trying to claim him as the most accurate pollster just after the 2004 elections.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

My prediction

Ohio voters are tired of the recent lacklustre Republican administration in the state. 

Ted Strickland goes on to win the Governorship of Ohio in 2006, and runs a very dynamic and successful administration for the next two years.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner wins the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008.  He concludes the 2008 presidential election will be very close, and that he will need Ohio to put him over the top.  He is running against the Republican ticket of Virginia Senator and former Governor George Allen and Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.   

In an effort to have a good chance at winning Ohio, Warner picks Ohio Governor Ted Strickland for Vice President.

Sure enough, Warner's analysis of the election is very accurate, and the 2008 presidential election is very close, with the final outcome depending on who wins Ohio.

The ticket of Warner and Strickland win Ohio by 40,000 votes, and Warner therefore wins the presidency.  Exit polling reveals that the presence of Strickland on the Democratic ticket swings enough Ohio voters to vote for Warner, which therefore puts Ohio into the Democratic column.  Exit polling also reveals that without Strickland on the Democratic ticket, Ohio would have gone Republican.

Mark Warner therefore owes his election to the Presidency to his Vice Presidential candidate, Ohio Governor Ted Srickland.     

[Adlai Stevenson]

That's interesting analysis; however, I still feel Hillary Clinton is likely to be nominated if she runs.  Also, I think Ohio would vote Warner of its own volition if he was on the ticket.  Kerry lost it narrowly and he was widely perceived to be a liberal, elitist Northeastern candidate.  I'm fairly sure Warner's folksiness and moderate record would give him a victory, still narrow but comprehensive in the Buckeye State. 

[ian]

I am a hardcore Strickland fan; I pray that he wins!

[Vasall des Midas]

That's interesting analysis

That's a fantasy timeline, not analysis.
But yeah, it's interesting. I'd still prefer a Gore/Henry, Gore/Schweitzer, Feingold/Henry or Feingold/Schweitzer ticket though.

[MSUfan]

I dont like the high number of undecideds.

[Sam Spade]

I dont like the high number of undecideds.

It's early.  A high number of undecideds is not surprising at this point in any race (which is the reason why I don't give the poll that much importance).

[J. J.]

Three words:  It is Zogby!

[© Tweed the Younger]

Republicans will retain both Senate and Gov. seats.  I'd bet money on it.

Nah, DeWine will win but I don't see any GOPer beating Strickland on Taft's cottails.

[Virginian87]

I'm still pulling for a Strickland victory.  And as to the DeWine versus ? race, I'm still going for the ?.