Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll: 42-42

[Giant Saguaro]

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Bush 42
Kerry 42

Bush 40
Kerry 40
Nader 3

Bush job approval: 48

Some info about Edwards/Gephardt as VP's too. Nothing new, otherwise.

[Reds4]

The approval rate of Bush moved only one point since the last poll which is good for Bush. The thing that is good for Kerry in my opinion is that many polls are showing more undecideds now than there were a month or two ago. Fox news showed 9% undecided not that long ago and now it shows 15% undecided. It is interesting that this poll shows Bush ahead in the battlegrounds by 6.

[Spin Police]

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Bush 42
Kerry 42

Bush 40
Kerry 40
Nader 3

Bush job approval: 48

Some info about Edwards/Gephardt as VP's too. Nothing new, otherwise.

Fixing the link

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

[Spin Police]

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Bush 42
Kerry 42

Bush 40
Kerry 40
Nader 3

Bush job approval: 48

Some info about Edwards/Gephardt as VP's too. Nothing new, otherwise.

Fixing the link

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

There may be a bit of a pattern emerging in the "battleground" states.

The Gallup which had Bush up 2% Nationally showed bush up 5% in the Battle grounds.

The TIPP which had Bush up 1 in a 3 way/Down 1 in a 2 way had bush up 6% in the Battle grounds.

Now the Fox News poll shows Bush up 6% (3 way) in the Battlegrounds (Up 4% in a 2 way)

Taken together, these three polls show things tied nationally, but bush up maybe 5% in the "Battlegrounds"

With all three showing almost exactly the same things, there may be some validity to it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Bush 42
Kerry 42

Bush 40
Kerry 40
Nader 3

Bush job approval: 48

Some info about Edwards/Gephardt as VP's too. Nothing new, otherwise.

Fixing the link

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

There may be a bit of a pattern emerging in the "battleground" states.

The Gallup which had Bush up 2% Nationally showed bush up 5% in the Battle grounds.

The TIPP which had Bush up 1 in a 3 way/Down 1 in a 2 way had bush up 6% in the Battle grounds.

Now the Fox News poll shows Bush up 6% (3 way) in the Battlegrounds (Up 4% in a 2 way)

Taken together, these three polls show things tied nationally, but bush up maybe 5% in the "Battlegrounds"

With all three showing almost exactly the same things, there may be some validity to it.

This depends on whether they have the same Battleground states, doesn't it?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There has been a noticeable increase in the % of undecided voters just in the last week.

Last week, the average undecided % was 8% in the 2-way match-up and 5% in the 3-way. (7 polls)

This week, the average undecided % is 11% in both match-ups. (6 polls)

And this doesn't factor in the recent jump of undecideds in the Rasmussen track.

[Spin Police]

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

Bush 42
Kerry 42

Bush 40
Kerry 40
Nader 3

Bush job approval: 48

Some info about Edwards/Gephardt as VP's too. Nothing new, otherwise.

Fixing the link

www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,120492,00.html

There may be a bit of a pattern emerging in the "battleground" states.

The Gallup which had Bush up 2% Nationally showed bush up 5% in the Battle grounds.

The TIPP which had Bush up 1 in a 3 way/Down 1 in a 2 way had bush up 6% in the Battle grounds.

Now the Fox News poll shows Bush up 6% (3 way) in the Battlegrounds (Up 4% in a 2 way)

Taken together, these three polls show things tied nationally, but bush up maybe 5% in the "Battlegrounds"

With all three showing almost exactly the same things, there may be some validity to it.

This depends on whether they have the same Battleground states, doesn't it?

I imagine that the "Battleground" states would be very similar, if not identical.

I mean, how "different" could the lists be?

I would be really surprised if anybody had Texas or New York in the mix for example.

Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania are the bulk of the population of the battlegrounds anyway.  

If you include or do not include say Arkansas or not would make very much difference.

[Spin Police]

There has been a noticeable increase in the % of undecided voters just in the last week.

Last week, the average undecided % was 8% in the 2-way match-up and 5% in the 3-way. (7 polls)

This week, the average undecided % is 11% in both match-ups. (6 polls)

And this doesn't factor in the recent jump of undecideds in the Rasmussen track.

Good point about the jump in undecideds.

This usually means some support is changing sides.

Wonder which way it will go - over to Kerry or back to Bush?

[millwx]

Not to "rag" on Fox, since I'm independent and try to play nice and non-partisan on this board, but they are generally thought to have a conservative leaning.  And I have noted in the past three years that they USUALLY (not always, but usually) show Bush with a better approval rating than most other polls.  So, I not only wonder about their methodologies, but I wonder if they also threw Bush-leaner states into the "Battleground", like Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Louisiana, etc... some of which (like LA and MO) are more than just slight leans.  Those are states Kerry COULD pick off, but if he does, the race has probably been long since over, since it means he'd have probably already wrapped up FL, PA, and OH.

I'm not saying the poll is certainly wrong.  I'm just always skeptical of the Fox/OD polls.  They have notoriously leaned, oddly, the same direction many accuse their broadcasts of leaning.

In case you think I've hit my head...

Fox/OD Bush approval 5/19 = 48%
Newsweek 5/14 = 42%
Time/CNN 5/13 = 46%
Zogby 5/13 = 42%
CBS 5/11 = 44%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/9 = 46%
Pew 5/9 = 44%

7 polls in the last 10 days.  Fox/OD shows the highest approval rating.  Their early April poll was similar, though Newsweek was even and Gallup actually higher.  Early February (not as many March polls to compare)?  Time/CNN was the only one higher, and barely.  Fox/OD always leans pro-Republican... whether intentional or not, I won't debate that... but the fact is, they do.

[Giant Saguaro]

I wonder if there isn't a group of leaners moving in and out of the undecided/no vote range. But simultaneously or near simultaneously? This is strange, as has been well documented, for someone up for re-election. I'm beginning to think that no matter who the Dems would have picked, this is where we'd be. This is where we were in 2000, although it wasn't this volatile early on, but became this volatile late. Dems want their guy or no one/none of the above and Republicans want their guy or no one/none of the above. Seemingly, Republicans want the Reagan '80s back and Dems want the Clinton '90s back, both so bad it almost hurts. GOP is best for this, Dems for that, and so forth. I don't know, I'm as confused as anyone because there are tons of warning signs in this poll for both; so many I wouldn't know where to begin in addressing it all. Both should be dead in the water, but the partisan support keeps them from sinking.

And with the nasty, one-upmanship style campaigning, I think it's as partisan as it's been in a long while.

[12th Doctor]

Not to "rag" on Fox, since I'm independent and try to play nice and non-partisan on this board, but they are generally thought to have a conservative leaning.  And I have noted in the past three years that they USUALLY (not always, but usually) show Bush with a better approval rating than most other polls.  So, I not only wonder about their methodologies, but I wonder if they also threw Bush-leaner states into the "Battleground", like Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Louisiana, etc... some of which (like LA and MO) are more than just slight leans.  Those are states Kerry COULD pick off, but if he does, the race has probably been long since over, since it means he'd have probably already wrapped up FL, PA, and OH.

I'm not saying the poll is certainly wrong.  I'm just always skeptical of the Fox/OD polls.  They have notoriously leaned, oddly, the same direction many accuse their broadcasts of leaning.

In case you think I've hit my head...

Fox/OD Bush approval 5/19 = 48%
Newsweek 5/14 = 42%
Time/CNN 5/13 = 46%
Zogby 5/13 = 42%
CBS 5/11 = 44%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/9 = 46%
Pew 5/9 = 44%

7 polls in the last 10 days.  Fox/OD shows the highest approval rating.  Their early April poll was similar, though Newsweek was even and Gallup actually higher.  Early February (not as many March polls to compare)?  Time/CNN was the only one higher, and barely.  Fox/OD always leans pro-Republican... whether intentional or not, I won't debate that... but the fact is, they do.

Newsweek has a terrible polling organization.  It is always scewed towards Democrats (except in 1984 I think).  Zogby has been having some trouble lately two.  They are the lowest.  Fox/OD may be a little high, but no matter how conservative Fox is, they don't do the polls themselves.  Judging from what I can see at the moment, Bush's approval rating is probably about 46%.  Not bad when you consider that absolute pumling he has taken lately.

[millwx]

Newsweek has a terrible polling organization.  It is always scewed towards Democrats (except in 1984 I think).  Zogby has been having some trouble lately two.

I generally agree, though Newsweek's Dem bias has not been very noticeable for the past year or two... note that they were one of the only polling agencies agreeing with Fox/OD in April.  Regardless, I'm not defending Newsweek's polling agency or Zogby.  But Fox's (Opinion Dynamics) is almost always on the fringe or even an outlier.  It is less reliable, IMO, than any others (including Newsweek or Zogby).

With every other poll at 42%, 44% or 46%, I'd put Bush's approval at 44%.  That's kind of splitting hairs with you (since you think it's near 46%), but when you compare it to Fox/OD's 48%, our difference of opinion is fairly significant.  It's significant because Fox/OD's MOE is 3%.  So, if my thinking of 44% is correct, then Fox/OD is, in fact, an irrelevant outlier.

Unfortunately, it's impossible to tell who's right.  :-)

[12th Doctor]

Newsweek has a terrible polling organization.  It is always scewed towards Democrats (except in 1984 I think).  Zogby has been having some trouble lately two.

I generally agree, though Newsweek's Dem bias has not been very noticeable for the past year or two... note that they were one of the only polling agencies agreeing with Fox/OD in April.  Regardless, I'm not defending Newsweek's polling agency or Zogby.  But Fox's (Opinion Dynamics) is almost always on the fringe or even an outlier.  It is less reliable, IMO, than any others (including Newsweek or Zogby).

With every other poll at 42%, 44% or 46%, I'd put Bush's approval at 44%.  That's kind of splitting hairs with you (since you think it's near 46%), but when you compare it to Fox/OD's 48%, our difference of opinion is fairly significant.  It's significant because Fox/OD's MOE is 3%.  So, if my thinking of 44% is correct, then Fox/OD is, in fact, an irrelevant outlier.

Unfortunately, it's impossible to tell who's right.  :-)

Fox/OD hit the 2000 election perfectly.  48-48.

[12th Doctor]

This is when most other polls showed Gore as up by 2%-3% margins.

[pieman]

At 42-42, it seems that BOTH the DEM leaners and the GOP leaners have gone undecided. I can understand why the GOP leaners may be disenchanted with BUSH right now due to the prison scandal, but why are the DEMS disenchanted with Kerry? With Kerry on the air with his Bio ads, you would think that his negatives would be improving at least somewhat.

Both candidates should be worried.

[agcatter]

The Fox Opinion Dynamics Poll has an outstanding record.  Regardless of what you think about Fox News, their poll hit the 2000 election right on the button.  Vorlon has it rated as one of the top ones, certainly not a fringe poll.

[millwx]

Fox/OD hit the 2000 election perfectly.  48-48.

Looking at the Fox/OD numbers from 2000 right now.  They still had 10% undecided in the last poll.  They showed 43-43.  Still, not pro-Bush, I will grant you.  But I wasn't commenting on that (too difficult to assess w/ the large undecideds).  That's why I used the low-undecided, easy to compare approval ratings since 2000.  There's simply no way around it... Fox/OD is almost always a fringe or outlier pro-Bush.  Just as Newsweek is pro-Dem.  I notice the only folks debating this are Republicans.  If I come on and rip Newsweek when they show a pro-Kerry bias (which, actually, they've not been too bad of late... but that's only a recent trend), I bet the Dems will chime in.  I'm NOT trying to be partisan here... just factual.

In fact, let's just jump back a ways and randomly select a longer-term period (so you can see I'm not cherry picking) and average their polls.  For all of 2003 (averaging the polls per month, so multi-polled months don't skew the data too much), the average approval rating for Bush...

Fox/OD = 59%
Newsweek = 56%
Time/CNN = 56%
Zogby = 54%
CBS = 59%
Gallup = 59%
Pew = 58%

So... Fox/OD an outlier?  No.  But, they ARE right on the edge.  Coincidental that they happen to be on the high edge?  I doubt it, since I earlier showed that they've been on the high end all this year as well.  If it was mere chance, it'd balance out.  For example, in all three most recent, CBS, one of the other 59%, was lower than Fox/OD.  In two of the most three recent Gallup was also lower.

I haven't gone through a "statistical significance" on this, but since we're talking about the entirety of 2003, and up through the first five months of 2004, this is a LONG trend.  I seriously doubt this can be written off to chance.  This is especially true when you dig into the data even more... CBS and Gallup (the only other two at 59%) had more late-March '03 polls, after a jump in Bush's approval, pushing their March averages up more than the Fox/OD.

Plain and simple... Fox/OD leans pro-Bush.  Its trends are trustworthy; its raw numbers are not.

[Lunar]

42-42 is not a tie.  The undecideds flip overwhelmingly to the challenger unless the challenger is a a dud, and in that case it's about even (and thus still bringing up the challenger's poll numbers by averaging in a 50%).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Not to "rag" on Fox, since I'm independent and try to play nice and non-partisan on this board, but they are generally thought to have a conservative leaning.  And I have noted in the past three years that they USUALLY (not always, but usually) show Bush with a better approval rating than most other polls.  So, I not only wonder about their methodologies, but I wonder if they also threw Bush-leaner states into the "Battleground", like Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Louisiana, etc... some of which (like LA and MO) are more than just slight leans.  Those are states Kerry COULD pick off, but if he does, the race has probably been long since over, since it means he'd have probably already wrapped up FL, PA, and OH.

I'm not saying the poll is certainly wrong.  I'm just always skeptical of the Fox/OD polls.  They have notoriously leaned, oddly, the same direction many accuse their broadcasts of leaning.

In case you think I've hit my head...

Fox/OD Bush approval 5/19 = 48%
Newsweek 5/14 = 42%
Time/CNN 5/13 = 46%
Zogby 5/13 = 42%
CBS 5/11 = 44%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/9 = 46%
Pew 5/9 = 44%

7 polls in the last 10 days.  Fox/OD shows the highest approval rating.  Their early April poll was similar, though Newsweek was even and Gallup actually higher.  Early February (not as many March polls to compare)?  Time/CNN was the only one higher, and barely.  Fox/OD always leans pro-Republican... whether intentional or not, I won't debate that... but the fact is, they do.

First, Zogby has a real problem with accuracy.  Of the major polls in 2002, he had far and away the highest margin of error and far and away the highest wrong prediction.

Second, Newsweek has been a bad joke for years.  It consistently slants its polls to the lefft both by sample and other means.

Third, the other results are all within margin of error.

Fourth, Bush took a real barrage of hits from the liberal media which would have you believe that the only news was the Iraqi prisoners weren't treated well and that Bush was somehow responsible for that ill treatment.  The people who understandably were upset with what happened in the prison have since come to realize that the media is overplaying its hand and appreciates that Bush has not been panicked by the media attacks.

[12th Doctor]

42-42 is not a tie.  The undecideds flip overwhelmingly to the challenger unless the challenger is a a dud, and in that case it's about even (and thus still bringing up the challenger's poll numbers by averaging in a 50%).

I'm sick of people saying this.  This only holds true for the last couple weeks of the election and then undecideds are usually only 4% or so of the total.  This far our, it doesn't matter in the least.

[millwx]

First, Zogby has a real problem with accuracy.  Of the major polls in 2002, he had far and away the highest margin of error and far and away the highest wrong prediction.

Not sure if you meant 2002 (Congressionals) or 2000.  I'll presume you meant 2000.  His final poll in 2000 was 48% Gore, 46% Bush.  While imperfect, this (Zogby) was one of the BEST polls!!!

TIPP was 48-46 in favor of Bush.  Hotline was 45-42 Bush.  ABC was 48-45 Bush.  Gallup was 48-46 Bush.  Marist was 49-44 Bush.  NBC/WSJ was 47-44 Bush.  Newsweek, the supposedly Democratic bastion, was 45-43 Bush.  Pew was 49-47 Bush.  CBS News was 45-44 Gore.  CBS/NYT was 47-42 Bush.  Fox/OD was 43-43 tie.  Harris was 47-47 tie.  ICR was 46-44 Bush.  Tarrance/Lake was 50-45 Bush.  (These are all the final polls by these groups... taken in early November.)

This is quite obvious... Zogby was one of only four polls showing a tie or a narrow Gore win.  That's out of 15 polls!!!  And of the four that did well, one of which, admittedly, was Fox/OD (the ones I'm harping on), Zogby was probably not the worst.  Fox/OD was, due to its high undecided.  Harris was the best (lowest undecided, with a 47-47 tie)... followed by CBS News, then Zogby, then Fox/OD.  The other 11(!!) may have still caught the MOE to avoid being "wrong" statistically... but they weren't good... and that includes some pretty big names, like Gallup, TIPP, and Tarrance/Lake.

State by state, if I recall, Zogby was also good (though he did mess up the ever-critical Florida).  But clearly, overall, he was one of the best.  Also, check out the comparisons to other polling companies that Survey USA has conducted.  They do reasonably well, and...  One of the pollsters they have trouble beating?  Zogby.

[12th Doctor]

First, Zogby has a real problem with accuracy.  Of the major polls in 2002, he had far and away the highest margin of error and far and away the highest wrong prediction.

That's true, I think he predicted that Mondale would defeat Coleman, Johnson would level Thune, Dole/Bowles would be a nail-biter and Jeb Bush was in serious trouble in Florida.

[Lunar]

I'm sick of people saying this.  This only holds true for the last couple weeks of the election and then undecideds are usually only 4% or so of the total.  This far our, it doesn't matter in the least.

Obviously the election isn't going to hold like this all the way to November.  However, we extrapolate every poll we see to election day, and if this trend holds, it's bad for Bush.

[Spin Police]

Not to "rag" on Fox, since I'm independent and try to play nice and non-partisan on this board, but they are generally thought to have a conservative leaning.  And I have noted in the past three years that they USUALLY (not always, but usually) show Bush with a better approval rating than most other polls.  So, I not only wonder about their methodologies, but I wonder if they also threw Bush-leaner states into the "Battleground", like Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Louisiana, etc... some of which (like LA and MO) are more than just slight leans.  Those are states Kerry COULD pick off, but if he does, the race has probably been long since over, since it means he'd have probably already wrapped up FL, PA, and OH.

I'm not saying the poll is certainly wrong.  I'm just always skeptical of the Fox/OD polls.  They have notoriously leaned, oddly, the same direction many accuse their broadcasts of leaning.

In case you think I've hit my head...

Fox/OD Bush approval 5/19 = 48%
Newsweek 5/14 = 42%
Time/CNN 5/13 = 46%
Zogby 5/13 = 42%
CBS 5/11 = 44%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/9 = 46%
Pew 5/9 = 44%

7 polls in the last 10 days.  Fox/OD shows the highest approval rating.  Their early April poll was similar, though Newsweek was even and Gallup actually higher.  Early February (not as many March polls to compare)?  Time/CNN was the only one higher, and barely.  Fox/OD always leans pro-Republican... whether intentional or not, I won't debate that... but the fact is, they do.

WRONG.

The final Fox News poll in 2000 was DEAD on.

They called it a tie.

No bias there, just good polling. - Sorry but that's a fact.

[zachman]

My question is do the poll numbers of a candidate always go up on eletion day. I would think that some will stay undecided and not vote on election day and that will help both candidates proportionally. Does this happen?