NY: GOP Risks Losing Conservative Allies

[Frodo]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

By PATRICK D. HEALY
Published: February 9, 2006

It is the greatest threat to New York Republicans in the race for governor this year: the state Conservative Party is increasingly opposed to the Republicans' favored candidate, William F. Weld, and is willing to run a candidate of its own. That move could split the right and hand the race to the Democrats, leaders in both parties say.

With the Conservatives preparing to meet in Albany for an annual conclave on Monday, their chairman, Michael Long, said that more party committeemen were moving away from Mr. Weld every day because of his support for abortion rights and gay rights and his past praise for gay marriage.

"It's a severe uphill battle for Weld to get our support, to be fair about it," Mr. Long said in an interview yesterday. "The Republicans may nominate Weld, but he has very little support in our party. We want a candidate with our values, not just someone who can win.

"If Republicans nominate Weld, we could see a very divided Republican-Conservative vote in November."

source

[YRABNNRM]

The Conservatives are so delusional. Do they actually think that one of their jokes stand a chance in NEW YORK?

[Lincoln Republican]

In this election for Governor, there are two possible outcomes

Democrat facing a divided Republican party
Democrat wins big

Democrat facing a united Republican party
Democrat wins big

[True Democrat]

Could someone explain this Conservative party thing?  I never really got it.

[Gabu]

That move could split the right and hand the race to the Democrats, leaders in both parties say.

The right in New York is small enough as it is that you could get 101% of conservatives voting for the same candidate and the Democrat would still win confortably.  If these people feel that a split in the right is the only reason why the Democrat would win, they're basically unknowingly explaining exactly what their problem is.

[ag]

Could someone explain this Conservative party thing?  I never really got it.

NY used to be the stronghold of the liberal Rockefeller Republicans, so the more conservative types formed a new party, the Conservative party, which has been there to pressure the Reps on the right.

NY law allows smaller parties to nominate same candidates as the major parties. If a candidate is nominated by more than one party, say Rep and Con, voters can choose to vote for him as a Republican or as a Conservative. To determine the winner the votes s/he receives on all lines are summed up, so the guy with the largest number of votes wins in any case. The party has to get 50 thousand votes on its line in the Governor's race to be ensured automatic ballot access for all races for the next 4 years. The place the party takes in the race also determines its future place on the ballot (currently Rep, Dem, Independence, Conservative, Working Families, I think).

It used to be that the two "major minor" parties were the Conservatives and the Liberals. Conservatives were to the right, so their choice is endorsing a Rep or running their own candidate. Libs were between Dems and Reps, so they, effectively, had 3 options (for instance, Giuliani used to run as both a Republican and a Liberal).  Libs lost their ballot position last time, so they are out. The other two parties are the Independence party (it has been many things - from Perotian to almost Marxist - and is hard to define, but thanks to Golisano's last-time bid for Governor as its member, it has the third ballot position) and the Working Families Party (partly left of the Dems, partly created to screw the old Libs).

The principal way a minor party can influence an election is by nominating as its candidate one of the major party primary candidates before the primary/convention.  Thus committed, it puts the major party before a choice: either you nominate our guy, or else you would lose some tens/hundreds of thousands votes to our line and will have your vote split. The downside of this strategy is that if their candidate is not the candidate of the major party, they run the risk of not getting 50 thousand votes and losing automatic ballot access. This is why minor parties insist that the person they nominate commits to actively campaigning even if he loses the major party nomination.

Last time the Libs miscalculated: they nominated Andrew Cuomo, but after he lost the Dem nomination he went back on his word and didn't campaign, so they lost their ballot position.

[Smash255]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

By PATRICK D. HEALY
Published: February 9, 2006

It is the greatest threat to New York Republicans in the race for governor this year: the state Conservative Party is increasingly opposed to the Republicans' favored candidate, William F. Weld, and is willing to run a candidate of its own. That move could split the right and hand the race to the Democrats, leaders in both parties say.

With the Conservatives preparing to meet in Albany for an annual conclave on Monday, their chairman, Michael Long, said that more party committeemen were moving away from Mr. Weld every day because of his support for abortion rights and gay rights and his past praise for gay marriage.

"It's a severe uphill battle for Weld to get our support, to be fair about it," Mr. Long said in an interview yesterday. "The Republicans may nominate Weld, but he has very little support in our party. We want a candidate with our values, not just someone who can win.

"If Republicans nominate Weld, we could see a very divided Republican-Conservative vote in November."

source

This issue is really going to have very little impact on the race.   Spitzer is beyond safe as it is.  The only impact this split has is instead of winning by 35%, Spitzer may win by 40-45%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush has completely ed the Republican party in New York State. The Conservative party is emboldened by Bush's far right successes, but that doesn't play well in New York.  New York Republicans like those in the State Senate may be fairly liberal as Republicans go, but they have that R next to them.

[WalterMitty]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

By PATRICK D. HEALY
Published: February 9, 2006

It is the greatest threat to New York Republicans in the race for governor this year: the state Conservative Party is increasingly opposed to the Republicans' favored candidate, William F. Weld, and is willing to run a candidate of its own. That move could split the right and hand the race to the Democrats, leaders in both parties say.

With the Conservatives preparing to meet in Albany for an annual conclave on Monday, their chairman, Michael Long, said that more party committeemen were moving away from Mr. Weld every day because of his support for abortion rights and gay rights and his past praise for gay marriage.

"It's a severe uphill battle for Weld to get our support, to be fair about it," Mr. Long said in an interview yesterday. "The Republicans may nominate Weld, but he has very little support in our party. We want a candidate with our values, not just someone who can win.

"If Republicans nominate Weld, we could see a very divided Republican-Conservative vote in November."

source

This issue is really going to have very little impact on the race.   Spitzer is beyond safe as it is.  The only impact this split has is instead of winning by 35%, Spitzer may win by 40-45%

your spitzer fever is out of control! 

ill take that bet.  spitzer will NOT win by 40-45 points

[Lincoln Republican]

Spitzer wins big, yes, but no way does he win by 40-45%, not even close to it.

[WalterMitty]

im baffled as to why weld didnt return to massachusetts to run for governor since romeny declined to seek a second term.  weld certainly would have had a better chance in the ma thanhe does in ny. 

in any case, i strongly support weld in his battle aganst william jennings spitzer.  anyone who loves freedom should support weld.

[Virginian87]

anyone who loves freedom should support weld.

Good to see another enlightened thought from the arch-nemesis of the "silly populists".

[minionofmidas]

"William Jennings Spitzer"? I love that.

Does anyone remember what happened in NY-1 5 years ago? The Republican Rep, Forbes (forget the first name) decided to seek the Dem and Working Families lines rather than the Rep one (but didn't leave the Rep caucus before the election). He got the Working Families one, but lost the Dem primary (he was very moderate for a Rep... but not quite Chafee material) to a fairly out-there Liberal ... who then lost the general election to Conservative Republican, Felix Grucci. Forbes got about 5% on the Working Families line without campaigning (Grucci did outpoll the two of them together, though.)
Grucci was a one-term congressman. The seat is democratic now.

[YRABNNRM]

"William Jennings Spitzer"? I love that.

Does anyone remember what happened in NY-1 5 years ago? The Republican Rep, Forbes (forget the first name) decided to seek the Dem and Working Families lines rather than the Rep one (but didn't leave the Rep caucus before the election). He got the Working Families one, but lost the Dem primary (he was very moderate for a Rep... but not quite Chafee material) to a fairly out-there Liberal ... who then lost the general election to Conservative Republican, Felix Grucci. Forbes got about 5% on the Working Families line without campaigning (Grucci did outpoll the two of them together, though.)
Grucci was a one-term congressman. The seat is democratic now.

Please don't remind me....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

"William Jennings Spitzer"? I love that.

Does anyone remember what happened in NY-1 5 years ago? The Republican Rep, Forbes (forget the first name) decided to seek the Dem and Working Families lines rather than the Rep one (but didn't leave the Rep caucus before the election). He got the Working Families one, but lost the Dem primary (he was very moderate for a Rep... but not quite Chafee material) to a fairly out-there Liberal ... who then lost the general election to Conservative Republican, Felix Grucci. Forbes got about 5% on the Working Families line without campaigning (Grucci did outpoll the two of them together, though.)
Grucci was a one-term congressman. The seat is democratic now.

Yeah, it was a real swing seat for a while


2000: Forbes switches parties
2000: Forbes loses primary, and Republican Grucci wins
2002: Democrat Bishop wins

That's 3 party changes in 3 years.

[Smash255]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

By PATRICK D. HEALY
Published: February 9, 2006

It is the greatest threat to New York Republicans in the race for governor this year: the state Conservative Party is increasingly opposed to the Republicans' favored candidate, William F. Weld, and is willing to run a candidate of its own. That move could split the right and hand the race to the Democrats, leaders in both parties say.

With the Conservatives preparing to meet in Albany for an annual conclave on Monday, their chairman, Michael Long, said that more party committeemen were moving away from Mr. Weld every day because of his support for abortion rights and gay rights and his past praise for gay marriage.

"It's a severe uphill battle for Weld to get our support, to be fair about it," Mr. Long said in an interview yesterday. "The Republicans may nominate Weld, but he has very little support in our party. We want a candidate with our values, not just someone who can win.

"If Republicans nominate Weld, we could see a very divided Republican-Conservative vote in November."

source

This issue is really going to have very little impact on the race.   Spitzer is beyond safe as it is.  The only impact this split has is instead of winning by 35%, Spitzer may win by 40-45%

your spitzer fever is out of control! 

ill take that bet.  spitzer will NOT win by 40-45 points

Spitzer will get at least 60% of the vote, decent chance to get 65%.  The 40-45 point comment was basically a bit of an exaggeration, but if the Conservative Party goes real hard at Weld it could eat away at his numbers and turn a 65-35 race into a 65-25-10 race

[King]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

Hey, Marilyn O'Grady got 4%.

[King]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

Hey, Marilyn O'Grady got 4%.

First, you make a joke about Cheney shooting a fellow hunter.  Now, you make this "conservative party really got more than 11 votes without cheating" comment.

Did you go to a leadership convention or something?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

Hey, Marilyn O'Grady got 4%.

First, you make a joke about Cheney shooting a fellow hunter.  Now, you make this "conservative party really got more than 11 votes without cheating" comment.

Did you go to a leadership convention or something?

Clearly since I think that the Conservative party will get at least 12 votes, I am a Conservative party apoligist.

[King]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

Hey, Marilyn O'Grady got 4%.

First, you make a joke about Cheney shooting a fellow hunter.  Now, you make this "conservative party really got more than 11 votes without cheating" comment.

Did you go to a leadership convention or something?

Clearly since I think that the Conservative party will get at least 12 votes, I am a Conservative party apoligist.

Yes, yes you are.


Thank you, Xahar, for pointing out my unfinished business.

LOL @ Spitzer.

[Хahar 🤔]

In Weld's Bid, G.O.P. Risks Losing Conservative Party Allies

Those 11 votes will be missed.

Hey, Marilyn O'Grady got 4%.

First, you make a joke about Cheney shooting a fellow hunter.  Now, you make this "conservative party really got more than 11 votes without cheating" comment.

Did you go to a leadership convention or something?

Clearly since I think that the Conservative party will get at least 12 votes, I am a Conservative party apoligist.

Yes, yes you are.


Thank you, Xahar, for pointing out my unfinished business.

LOL @ Spitzer.

My pleasure.