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Author Topic: MO-Sen: Talent takes lead  (Read 2779 times)
nini2287
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« on: February 13, 2006, 11:08:14 am »
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20February.htm

Rasmussen:
Talent 46
McCaskill 41
Other 4
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2006, 11:40:36 am »
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Excellent news, though given that Talent had trailed McCaskill by two or three points consitently in several polls before, I think I'll wait for future polls to confirm that the trend is back in his favor.  Still, I think Talent will win this one in the end.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2006, 12:10:09 pm »
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I'm annoyed at this poll certainly.  However, other people in other threads have said that Rasmussen generally overstates Republican support; also lets remember its only February and that the only polling that matters will begin in August or September.  Still, this is interesting.
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2006, 12:13:08 pm »
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We'll see if this is really a trend or just noise.  The last few polls on this race (both Rasmussen and others) have shown McCaskill with a small lead.
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2006, 12:14:52 pm »
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After what Talent did on the Cloning Ban Bill last week, I would not be shocked if his numbers decline.  He made a big mistake on that one...

Novak's Report on the Issue
http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/robertnovak/2006/02/13/186120.html
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2006, 01:12:23 pm »
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Looks like an outlier. We'll have to see how later ones go.

This is a toss up.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2006, 04:56:11 pm »
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After what Talent did on the Cloning Ban Bill last week, I would not be shocked if his numbers decline.  He made a big mistake on that one...

Novak's Report on the Issue
http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/robertnovak/2006/02/13/186120.html

It could be portrayed as a flip-flop, but only by Republicans.  McCaskill has to tread a fine line on it - I think she would be pro stem cell research but if she ends up bashing him for agreeing with her then it makes her look bad.

I would have thought that this is what pushed his numbers up slightly as he gets press attention and discusses issues, resulting in a favourable atmosphere for him.

I think that McCaskill should pull it out in the end.  The poll notes that more Missourians approve of her than Talent and more Missourians disapprove of Talent than her.  Apart from the money factor, which is weighted against her, she is running in a swing-state in a good year for her party against an empty-suit of a politician who has got no credit for any legislation or activity in MO.  Furthermore, she is familiar and well positioned in the eyes of the voters: 48% of them voted for her in 2004.
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2006, 06:48:07 pm »
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Looks like an outlier. We'll have to see how later ones go.

This is a toss up.

As opposed to MT???
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2006, 07:07:00 pm »
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Remember 2004's Governor polls?  Even the one taken in late 2004?

If you answer this question "yes," you'll know why this is fruitless.
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2006, 07:08:23 pm »
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What states are in play?
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2006, 07:25:25 pm »
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What states are in play?

Here are the states where people on the Forum assert competitiveness (the ones I think are genuinely competitive are asterisked):

Arizona - Kyl's approvals aren't great, but the Dems' candidates suck.  Very outside chance of competitiveness.

Connecticut - Lieberman has a number of interesting challengers, but unless something major happens.

Florida - If Katherine Harris is the nominee, the genreal consensus is that there will be a landslide.  Otherwise, this may be competitive.

Maryland* - Steele's verbal gaffes may make for an eventually uncompetitive race, but any race with Mfume will not be a Democratic landslide.  Cardin may be a different story.

Michigan - Polls show the not exceptionally well-known or popular Stabenow beating her opponents by very solid margins, but not ones that I would call completely safe.

Minnesota* - So far, it appears to be tooth and nail.

Mississippi - I think there's a guy named Mike Moore who supposedly could make for a competitive race under some circumstance.  I'm not entirely sure I should be including this, but I forget the details of the race.

Missouri* - A recent poll says Talent has taken back a small-medium lead, but before then McCaskill was leading regularly by small numbers in poll returns.

Montana* - New polls show Burns down.

Nebraska - Until I see polling information, I'm not sure I can entirely label this seat as safe - if I ever can.

Nevada - I don't think this is worth including at all, but if Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs, this could theoretically be competitive.

New Jersey* - Another very competitive seat.

Ohio* - Has moved around a lot, but generally seems competitive.

Pennsylvania* - No need to explain.

Rhode Island* - Chafee either leads by unspectular margins or doesn't.

Tennessee* - I think this may drift into the GOP column, but for now polls generally show marginal Republican leads.

Washington - The Washington GOP does nothing better than produce mediocre candidates that lose by moderate margins that aren't moderate enough to call seats safe.

Very few, if any, people argue that California, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia (as long as Warner does not run), West Virginia, Wisconsin or Wyoming will be competitive.

So I'd personally say nine states are competitive, and an additional eight are standard pie-in-the-sky fare for partisans that have a very distant chance of becoming competitive.
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2006, 08:47:39 pm »
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I just bumped into a similar poll from the 2002 Election:
MO:
Carnahan - 52%, Talent - 41%

Anyone remember what happened?
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2006, 05:22:06 am »
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Anyone who watched them debate, yes.
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2006, 12:00:19 am »
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It would take a Dem tidal wave to ouster Talent.  It could happen, but I dont see it.  Missouri is not really so much a swing state anymore as it is lean Republican.
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2006, 12:44:47 am »
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Primarily thanks to the realignment in parts of rural Missouri from Democrat to Republican.  That plus some suburban areas around St. Louis give it a slight Republican lean. 
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