VA: Election Closer Than Expected

[Sarnstrom]

Rasmussen Reports poll, February 8, 500 likely voters, MoE ± 4.5%:

Allen (R): 49%
Webb (D): 37%

Allen (R): 48%
Miller (D): 35%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Virginia%20Senate%20February.htm

[Adlai Stevenson]

Encouraging.  But I still wholeheartedly believe Allen will win; I can't understand why at the moment this is rated closer than Kyl vs Pederson in Arizona?  Surely Allen is a brighter and more articulate leader in Congress than Jon Kyl, who one hardly hears anything about?

[TheresNoMoney]

Surely Allen is a brighter and more articulate leader in Congress than Jon Kyl, who one hardly hears anything about?

Have you ever heard Allen? He's a moron, probably one of the dumbest Senators in Washington. He is not "more articulate" than anybody besides Jim Bunning.

Anyway, James Webb is the type of candidate that can make this a competitive race. He will have a lot of crossover appeal. I am not saying that he will win, but I expect it to be competitive.

[WalterMitty]

id like to see a poll with a bigger sample.

[MasterJedi]

Allen won't lose, the end.

[Frodo]

Several points I'd like to make....

First: the best we can hope for in this race is to make Republicans spend money in a state they thought they could take for granted, and divert resources from other races where the Democrat stands a better chance of taking a seat

Second: if James Webb can make this race close enough that the NRSC is forced to divert resources to it, it could cast a shadow over Allen's hopes of winning his party's nomination in '08. 

Third: if Webb makes a good performance in this state given its Republican lean, he has a long political career ahead of him.....

[AuH2O]

Webb is overrated. He's more legit than the joke Pauly Hackett was in Ohio, but he can't beat Allen.

And money is not an issue for Republicans. They have a lot of it. It's Democrats that don't-- and guess what, Webb isn't personally wealthy and has no campaign cash, whereas Allen is raking in money like there's no tomorrow.

If Democrats put money into Virginia, more power to them. They can win moral victories by getting 42% or something against Allen in exchange for losing seats elsewhere. I'll take that deal any election cycle.

[Gabu]

If "closer than expected" is Allen +12, that doesn't sound too hopeful.

The race will certainly be closer with Webb as the nominee, but Allen is still going to win.

[Frodo]

If "closer than expected" is Allen +12, that doesn't sound too hopeful.

Well do keep in mind that Allen is being polled with just under 50% approval rating -normally, that is a dangerous sign and would make him potentially vulnerable especially against a Democrat with crossover appeal like Jim Webb.

Ultimately though, I do not expect the results in Virginia between George Allen and Jim Webb to be much different from the results between Maria Cantwell and Mike McGavick in Washington state given they are diametrically similar situations -and both Allen and Cantwell will win re-election by similar margins.   

The race will certainly be closer with Webb as the nominee, but Allen is still going to win.

We know that already....   

[Gabu]

Well do keep in mind that Allen is being polled with just under 50% approval rating -normally, that is a dangerous sign and would make him potentially vulnerable especially against a Democrat with crossover appeal like Jim Webb.

Like I said in my post, I certainly predict the race will be a lot closer with Webb as the nominee.  I also predict, however, a fairly comfortable win for Allen (at least 55-45, maybe a larger margin).

[TheresNoMoney]

A lot will depend on how much money Webb can raise to get his name and his message out to voters.

[Gustaf]

This is a bad sign for Allen. An incumbent should poll above 50% against what is still more or less a no-name. On the other hand, if you're polling at 49% you're very, very likely to end up winning. I agree that Allen is likely to win by something like 55-45. But I also think that it would damage his prospects of becoming president.

[Frodo]

I would add also that if Allen does worse than expected in his bid for re-election, Republicans should therefore consider themselves fortunate that he likely won't be running for their party's presidential nomination, which would give them an even better chance of keeping the White House in Republican hands for another decade than they already had. 

[Virginian87]

Have you ever heard Allen? He's a moron, probably one of the dumbest Senators in Washington.

I don't know about that, but he's certainly not one of the brightest.  His dad was a legendary Redskins coach, so he abolutely loves to use football analogies.  It can get rather tiresome when he makes statements along the lines of "Alito's confimation is like fourth and long with a fast rush approaching."  It's surprising how popular he was as governor.  Too bad Chuck Robb is no longer in the Senate.

[MissCatholic]

Maybe Warner should spend the next 8 months going after Allen. Take Webb under his wing and get some early punches in. Could be lucky and get a knockout.

[Jake]

Florida is a bit closer than this one, and everyone knows Harris is out there.

[Kevin]

This is not the first time polls have been wildly inaccurate in VA.

[Galactic Overlord]

I think Allen was thirty points behind when he first ran for governor of VA.

[GOP = Terrorists]

If the GOP loses VA it means they are getting CRUSHED nationwide and the Democrats now have control of both houses.

Anyone in VA know the quality of the team he is putting together?  How many of Warner/Kaine's people are involved?  How hard would they work for Webb?  I called VA for the Dems a while ago.  But it was mostly a pipedream bet. But it is possible.

[Virginian87]

Just checked out his bio.  Impressive.  Nobody can say that this guy is weal on defense issues.  Although I will be the first to say that defeating Allen will be quite a challenge, if Webb plays his cards right and hires the right people (combined with some campaign appearances from Mark Warner), he could put up a good fight.

[Jake]

Although I will be the first to say that defeating Nelson will be quite a challenge, if Harris plays her cards right and hires the right people (combined with some campaign appearances from Jeb Bush), he could put up a good fight.

Yeah, that sounds just as ridiculous

[Sam Spade]

Although I will be the first to say that defeating Nelson will be quite a challenge, if Harris plays her cards right and hires the right people (combined with some campaign appearances from Jeb Bush), he could put up a good fight.

Yeah, that sounds just as ridiculous

Too many people make too big of a deal of one single poll here, one single poll there. 

One poll showing Webb within 12 says close to nothing to me, as does one poll with Katherine Harris within 9.

Give me ten polls with these results and I'll believe them.  But not one. 

Partially, I think this is because...

a.  Most of us here aren't statistics majors, unlike jfern  (I did take a course in college, but that's about it)

b.  Our own pro pollster, The Vorlon, hasn't been around any to tell the newbies who weren't here in 2004 how to look for things in polling and how to correctly analyze the data we have.  Perhaps someone should bump those old threads up sometime soon (like you Jake) 

[Smash255]

Interesting, but as Sam Spade pointed out its just one poll.  Warner if he decided to run would probably win fairly easily at this point.  Webb will put up a good fight & VA has a whole is trending Dem (with northern VA FLYING Dem), but barring anything major happening Allen wins, not in a blowout, but a comfortable win nonetheless.  However I would say to keep an eye on the polls for this race (new SUSA Senate approval poll coming out soon) and look for more head to head matchups as well.  If more polls show things getting closer & Allen's approval dropping a bit then this race could be something to really look into a bit more, but at this point its just one poll

[HardRCafé]

If the GOP loses VA it means they are getting CRUSHED nationwide and the Democrats now have control of both houses.

If the Democrats lose NY it means they are getting CRUSHED nationwide and the why complete this sentence.

[MSUfan]

This is not the first time polls have been wildly inaccurate in VA.

That could work either way.